Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

[Shawn]

I think the models are overdoing the warm temps. Some places will have good snow amounts on the ground. There won't be much temp moderation.

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk

Based on what? Not being facetious. I genuinely want to know.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Look at the NAM snowfall output. The most snow comes in during the night hrs, less warming. When the sun comes up Sat. morning there won't be much warming...plus the cold air continues to be filtered in.

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk

 

[Shawn]

I say the GFS comes in colder, who's with me (+_+)

cold isn't the problem for your area . moisture is

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk

 

[Shawn]

Well, I still think NAM is out to lunch for the most part, but it did have some clues of where this is prob heading. Still like a stripe of snow for AL, GA and into the upstate, but the winners will likely be NC....

 

[Shawn]

Fwiw the NAM-para is about 12 hours slower with precip and really blossoms on the NW side @72 giving a decent band of frozen precip from NE Ga thru SC/NC

Cool.  Let's see it!

When my phone finishes installing an update I'll post it via Tapatalk but it may be a few....  maybe storm can post a pic for us

 

[Shawn]

Keeps ticking NW. For GA i expect the Alpharetta area to be the sweet spot when all said and done. Maybe SE Ridge house

 

[Shawn]

East Alabama just looking over everything seems to be in a good spot for something I am concerned about fzr for my area.

 

[Shawn]

nam looks like many gefs and eps members

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk

I think that is a good start..lol

 

[Shawn]

Well, I still think NAM is out to lunch for the most part, but it did have some clues of where this is prob heading. Still like a stripe of snow for AL, GA and into the upstate, but the winners will likely be NC....

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Shawn]

I say the GFS comes in colder, who's with me (+_+)

cold isn't the problem for your area . moisture is

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk

There's plenty of moisture with GFS just need little colder, the Nam is dry

 

[Shawn]

Yea umm that's cold...

 

[Shawn]

I say the GFS comes in colder, who's with me (+_+)

cold isn't the problem for your area . moisture is

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk

There's plenty of moisture with GFS just need little colder, the Nam is dry

riding the gfs will break your heart 9 times out of 10

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk

 

[Shawn]

The Chattanooga stations are calling for 1-3 inches, but it is for Thursday night into Friday. From what I can tell, the snow from Thursday is not from the low coming through later Friday into Saturday. Channel 3 pretty much said only flurries or very light snow showers for Friday night into Saturday. I could be wrong, but that's what I got from watching the forecast.

 

[Shawn]

0z ECMWF drops temps below 0 across parts of central NC with deep snow cover early next week. Definitely possible...

 

[Shawn]

nam looks like many gefs and eps members

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk

And the NAM shows that heavier band of snow that I been mentioning that sets up over ATL and up to the Carolina's...good job NAM!

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk

I'm confused cause you originally were talking about a low riding the the Gulf coast with a good snow for the SE. when did you flip and start talking about NC

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk

 

[Shawn]

I say the GFS comes in colder, who's with me (+_+)

cold isn't the problem for your area . moisture is

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk

There's plenty of moisture with GFS just need little colder, the Nam is dry

riding the gfs will break your heart 9 times out of 10

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk

You right about that, lol

 

[Shawn]

So I keep waiting for the people in the know on the board to calmly say "No worries guys. This is the time frame when the models start to lose it only to then bring it back stronger and better than ever in the next few runs."  I am not hearing this. My heart is sinking... :cry:

 

[Shawn]

0z ECMWF drops temps below 0 across parts of central NC with deep snow cover early next week. Definitely possible...

Probably not the best morning to go to the zoo -10 in Asheboro...yikes

 

[Shawn]

0z ECMWF drops temps below 0 across parts of central NC with deep snow cover early next week. Definitely possible...

Probably not the best morning to go to the zoo -10 in Asheboro...yikes

The polar bears are going to be like hell yeah!

 

[Shawn]

So I keep waiting for the people in the know on the board to calmly say "No worries guys. This is the time frame when the models start to lose it only to then bring it back stronger and better than ever in the next few runs."  I am not hearing this. My heart is sinking... :cry:

Yeah , won't hear that from me. Everything keeps trending towards a late bloomer which never works out for miss, ala and western georgia .

at this point I'll be tickled to see some flurries

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk

 

[Shawn]

0z ECMWF drops temps below 0 across parts of central NC with deep snow cover early next week. Definitely possible...

Probably not the best morning to go to the zoo -10 in Asheboro...yikes

Don't they have a polar bear there?  Good time to let him outside for a bit....

Brick beat me to it haha

 

[Shawn]

I always use to wonder why Mets never went out on a limb to forecast totals when a storm is coming days ahead. Even with all the technology, these models do not have a clue. Has the system even made it on the West coast yet?

 

[Shawn]

NAM was pretty warm, but the good news is the 4km NAM at 60 hours is more robust with the precip and a few degrees colder at the surface compared to the 12km. This applies to GA, SC, AL as well as NC.

It's the long range hi res NAM, of course; still encouraging to see.

 

[Shawn]

So I keep waiting for the people in the know on the board to calmly say "No worries guys. This is the time frame when the models start to lose it only to then bring it back stronger and better than ever in the next few runs."  I am not hearing this. My heart is sinking... :cry:

Yeah , won't hear that from me. Everything keeps trending towards a late bloomer which never works out for miss, ala and western georgia .

at this point I'll be tickled to see some flurries

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk

Post of the day sir!!  hell, I know we need a little bit of rain, but would rather have dry and some flurries flying than 35-38 and pouring rain..lol

 

[Shawn]

Does anyone have the PARA NAM snow map?

 

[Shawn]

NAM was pretty warm, but the good news is the 4km NAM at 60 hours is more robust with the precip and a few degrees colder at the surface compared to the 12km. This applies to GA, SC, AL as well as NC.

It's the long range hi res NAM, of course; still encouraging to see.

Yeah 4k was setting up to crush the Carolinas

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk

 

[Shawn]

What is the difference between Para NAM and NAM?

 

[Shawn]

Para Nam gives a lot of GA a dusting-inch

 

[Shawn]

I think the models are overdoing the warm temps. Some places will have good snow amounts on the ground. There won't be much temp moderation.

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk

Based on what? Not being facetious. I genuinely want to know.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Look at the NAM snowfall output. The most snow comes in during the night hrs, less warming. When the sun comes up Sat. morning there won't be much warming...plus the cold air continues to be filtered in.

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk

Ok, makes sense. And with such a deep low, we get no WAA.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Shawn]

somehow I missed the 00z para which was a complete whiff for most except for SE NC and northern SC

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk

 

[Shawn]

Para NAM

 

[Shawn]

What causes it to be a late bloomer once the energy gets to the gulf? Just trying to understand things abit better.

 

[Shawn]

Does anyone have the PARA NAM snow map?

I don't but I do have this and it looks decent

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk

 

[Shawn]

I'm afraid this is setting up to be a non event outside of North Carolina from just outside of the Appalachians east, Northeast GA (not just a little northeast either...), and upstate SC. Shouldn't be too surprising given climo but its unfortunate to me.

Maybe the snow band outside of those areas produces but otherwise we may just see token flurries-dusting in Georgia-South Carolina (outside areas I mentioned).

 

[Shawn]

Para NAM

 

[Shawn]

NC gets Jackpot again. The rich get richer

 

[Shawn]

What is the difference between Para NAM and NAM?

The NAM is the current version of the NAM while the Para is what it will go to later on. It is the eventual upgrade of the NAM. They normally run the eventual upgrade against the current model so we can see which performs better. Kind of like the Para GFS.

 

[Shawn]

Here's the GFS for a similar time frame. It also puts out sub zero temps over the deepest snow cover. I'm with you Brick, the polar bears will be right at home lol...

 

[Shawn]

Does anyone have the PARA NAM snow map?

I don't but I do have this and it looks decent

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk

I know I've heard of the Para Nam but never can find it's models ohh well wonder what the Para Nam today looks like compared to it's previous run

 

[Shawn]

somehow I missed the 00z para which was a complete whiff for most except for SE NC and northern SC

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk

I didn't miss it but I sure as hell didn't discuss it either lol....  we toss 

 

[Shawn]

If the 12z GFS and GEFS still lean the same way the NAM just did.....you can call it quits for anyone outside of the Carolina's. What a dumpster fire!