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Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

From Jason Simpson of WHNT 19 in Huntsville
That sets us up for what could be a winter storm in the South on Friday and Saturday. Timing and accumulation are still very much in flux right now, so expect some major adjustments to the forecast for Friday and Saturday as we get a better handle on the situation.

Some guidance (American GFS) produces over 5” of snow for North Alabama, the European guidance shows only around 1” of snow, and the Canadian guidance has nothing but very cold weather.
weather-pattern-2016.png
 
bouncycorn link said:
[quote author=Snowfan link=topic=80.msg7672#msg7672 date=1483398594]
WHEN WILL FFC ISSUE THEIR LATEST AFD?!
Edit: The suspense is killing me.
Click to expand...
They're working on severe and are short one forecaster to the flu.


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[/quote]
Hahaha....sounds like the server and met saw the models and said yeah we don't want any part of this lol

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tellicowx link said:
[quote author=sigwx link=topic=80.msg7683#msg7683 date=1483398893]
[quote author=tellicowx link=topic=80.msg7678#msg7678 date=1483398742]
wonder if FFC is waiting on the GEFS?

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Click to expand...
Do you think their talking to other officers such as BMX because they have not issue their AFD as of yet.
[/quote]
I would say so...a lot of coordination going on trying to interrupt everything.

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[/quote]Ya, BMX almost always has their AFD out before the 5pm news
 
sigwx link said:
[quote author=ARCC link=topic=80.msg7669#msg7669 date=1483398414]
[quote author=sigwx link=topic=80.msg7664#msg7664 date=1483398297]
[quote author=ARCC link=topic=80.msg7662#msg7662 date=1483398194]
Haha its been a long time since I've been dead center of a weenie run. Too bad its still four days out.
Click to expand...
Hey ARCC, how far are you from Rockford?
[/quote]

Twenty minutes or so north.
[/quote]Okay your closer to Goodwater, l am about 35 miles west/southwest. How much snow in the sweet spot for you?
[/quote]

Looking at soundings, north of Montgomery to north of BHM would get anywhere from 4-10" depending on ratios. The only reason it doesn't show up is it has surface temps holding just above freezing for this area for the most part. I doubt that with heavy snow falling and thicknesses crashing.

But its all just sweet dreams at this point.
 
bouncycorn link said:
[quote author=Snowfan link=topic=80.msg7672#msg7672 date=1483398594]
WHEN WILL FFC ISSUE THEIR LATEST AFD?!
Edit: The suspense is killing me.
Click to expand...
They're working on severe and are short one forecaster to the flu.

How many forecasters do they have ?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
[/quote]
 
I would like to know why it matters what is in the forecast discussions this far out though?  If the local offices mention Wintry in their discussion it is a much higher chance of happening?  Calm down guys!
 
Louis link said:
[quote author=bouncycorn link=topic=80.msg7689#msg7689 date=1483399102]
[quote author=Snowfan link=topic=80.msg7672#msg7672 date=1483398594]
WHEN WILL FFC ISSUE THEIR LATEST AFD?!
Edit: The suspense is killing me.
Click to expand...
They're working on severe and are short one forecaster to the flu.

How many forecasters do they have ?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
[/quote]
[/quote]
They have plenty of forecasters, but are still down one unreplaced so it's even more stretched. Manager at FFC mentioned that they'll start talking about any winter event tomorrow.


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ARCC link said:
[quote author=sigwx link=topic=80.msg7671#msg7671 date=1483398564]
[quote author=ARCC link=topic=80.msg7669#msg7669 date=1483398414]
[quote author=sigwx link=topic=80.msg7664#msg7664 date=1483398297]
[quote author=ARCC link=topic=80.msg7662#msg7662 date=1483398194]
Haha its been a long time since I've been dead center of a weenie run. Too bad its still four days out.
Click to expand...
Hey ARCC, how far are you from Rockford?
[/quote]

Twenty minutes or so north.
[/quote]Okay your closer to Goodwater, l am about 35 miles west/southwest. How much snow in the sweet spot for you?
[/quote]

Looking at soundings, north of Montgomery to north of BHM would get anywhere from 4-10" depending on ratios. The only reason it doesn't show up is it has surface temps holding just above freezing for this area for the most part. I doubt that with heavy snow falling and thicknesses crashing.

But its all just sweet dreams at this point.
[/quote]I will take 4" and be very happy. Thanks ARCC
 
If it's makes people feel better, even CAE mentions it in their latest discussion.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Confidence in the long term period remains low given significant
model differences due to fast zonal flow with resulting timing
issues with central and eastern broad trough late in the period.
There is potential for wintry precipitation over the weekend but
details are limited at this time. Have put higher stock in the
12Z ECMWF as the GFS is more dependent upon the southern impulse
which has potential to get sheared out. Added a slight chance of
mixed precipitation late Friday night into early Saturday as the
ECMWF develops an area of surface low pressure along the western
Gulf and shifts it northeastward. The ECMWF shows the moisture
shifting east by 12Z Saturday. The 12Z GFS brings the moisture in
later on Saturday and keeps the moisture around into Sunday.
Confidence is high for below normal temperatures late in the
period.
Click to expand...
 
Shawn link said:
I would like to know why it matters what is in the forecast discussions this far out though?  If the local offices mention Wintry in their discussion it is a much higher chance of happening?  Calm down guys!
Click to expand...

No, but they're the professionals and likely have more data than does the general public (I'm guessing anyway), and it's always nice to see the thoughts of these professionals. Not saying the more educated mets on here don't, but again always nice to get the office's perspective on it too.
 
It's worth mentioning here that even once we properly sample the primary features involved in this setup another issue we're going to have to contend w/ @ some pt in the short range is the dry biases most guidance has wrt isentropic upglide (likely to be the main lifting mechanism here). Models often underestimate its poleward extent and amplitude. The February 11 2014 storm is a good recent example of this that immediately comes to mind to me... I was in FAY and we were only expecting 1" at most but ended up w/ ~4" of snow
 
Webberweather53 link said:
It's worth mentioning here that even once we properly sample the primary features involved in this setup another issue we're going to have to contend w/ @ some pt in the short range is the dry biases most guidance has wrt isentropic upglide (likely to be the main lifting mechanism here). Models often underestimate its poleward extent and amplitude. The February 11 2014 storm is a good recent example of this that immediately comes to mind to me... I was in FAY and we were only expecting 1" at most but ended up w/ ~4" of snow
Click to expand...
Wouldn't that put more into play....If I'm understanding you right?

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