Hey ARCC, how far are you from Rockford?sigwx link said:
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Twenty minutes or so north.
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Twenty minutes or so north.
swbamaweatherguy
Member
NWS Jackson MS AFD bit the hook and likes the GFS!!!
sigwx
Member
Hey ARCC, how far are you from Rockford?ARCC link said:
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Twenty minutes or so north.
[/quote]Okay your closer to Goodwater, l am about 35 miles west/southwest. How much snow in the sweet spot for you?
WHEN WILL FFC ISSUE THEIR LATEST AFD?!
Edit: The suspense is killing me.
Edit: The suspense is killing me.
Me too bud... what's the deal on NE MS and NW AL? Dry nose?JLL1973 link said:
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i really wouldnt worry right now. these systems usually trend northwest. we still in a good spot
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That run took the system further south into the Gulf before turning the corner and going up the coast. I think you guys are still in a good spot. The chances of this trending a lot further NW isn't that big with this system.
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RDUHeatIsland
Member
GEFS mean just a tad higher for central NC on the 18z.
Webberweather53 link said:
The northern stream wave will be entering the north america upper air network at 6-12z tomorrow, and the data should be ingested into the models by 0z Tue Night/Wed
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I think if there is going to be a big change in the models that's when it's going to happen.
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Parker
Member
That mean isn't backing down!!
Hey Gawx, what does this possible winter storm analog to?
mydoortotheworld
Member
from my end on wxbell, it's still updatingaccu35 link said:
sigwx
Member
Do you think their talking to other officers such as BMX because they have not issue their AFD as of yet.tellicowx link said:
C
CummingWx
Guest
tellicowx link said:
Not sure, but this is one of the latest times I can remember them putting it out. I bet they're definitely shaking their heads as to which model to believe at this stage.
mydoortotheworld
Member
Webberweather53 link said:
We need more stream separation for the disturbance in the Pacific northwest to cut-off, amplify and slow down as it enters the Great basin and southwestern US
mydoortotheworld link said:
The northern stream is essentially the polar jet stream, while the southern stream is also known as the subtropical jet stream. Split flow over the Pacific with 2 defined streams (as we currently have) is often a necessary ingredient for overrunning/southern sliders in the southeastern US, mid-south, and southern plains. Split flow in the northeastern Pacific typically occurs when we observe a large-scale ridge in the vicinity of Alaska (-EPO), which usually retrogrades westward with time and moves towards the Bering Sea & far eastern Siberia (-WPO). Essentially, w/o going into much of the physical details why this occurs, -WPOs often lag -EPOs... Here's a nice animation of the NCEP Reanalysis top 20 -EPO days in January rolled forward a week and another animation showing the z500 in the week leading up to the top 20 -WPO days in January. Notice how the Alaskan ridge retrogrades westward into Bering Sea/Eastern Siberia, while the southeastern US ridge becomes increasingly amplified with time. This pattern evolution is virtually what we're gonna see later this week and into the following week, hence we can probably expect milder wx to (@ least try to) return by the middle portions of the month..
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thank you so much for explaining this for me. clears up a lot!
Do you think their talking to other officers such as BMX because they have not issue their AFD as of yet.sigwx link said:
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I would say so...a lot of coordination going on trying to interrupt everything.
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I was wondering the same thing.
bouncycorn
Meteorologist
They're working on severe and are short one forecaster to the flu.Snowfan link said:
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I would like to see the ensembles.