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Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

NAM held the s/w stronger longer, then as it gets to it's long range, past 48hrs, it starts to flatten it out...... I'd watch this trend today, my guess is it will hold it stronger and longer with each run
 
AL has the cold...no precip. SMH
 
nam continues to be much further north vs the gfs

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metwannabe said:
NAM held the s/w stronger longer, then as it gets to it's long range, past 48hrs, it starts to flatten it out...... I'd watch this trend today, my guess is it will hold it stronger and longer with each run
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agree

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Cold batch of rain moving through GA heading into SC hr 57
 
OMG the nam is ugly, I would be lucky to see a flake fly. Really hope it is wrong
 
Storm5 said:
metwannabe said:
NAM held the s/w stronger longer, then as it gets to it's long range, past 48hrs, it starts to flatten it out......  I'd watch this trend today, my guess is it will hold it stronger and longer with each run
Click to expand...
agree

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Agree!!  I could see that as well.
 
NWS has a 50% of rain/snow Fri night and all day Sat. for my area. They definitely increased the percentage in the grids.

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NOAA now has me at 60% wintery mix for Friday night.
 
For those panicking over the NAM don't take it at face value but just pay attention to the trends, it definitely took a step in the right direction with our energy out west
 
metwannabe said:
NAM held the s/w stronger longer, then as it gets to it's long range, past 48hrs, it starts to flatten it out......  I'd watch this trend today, my guess is it will hold it stronger and longer with each run
Click to expand...

Your right it does good up to 48hrs then after get lost, if the other models look good today then the Nam will eventually follow
 
Parker said:
OMG the nam is ugly, I would be lucky to see a flake fly. Really hope it is wrong
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Expect it to trend towards the global models over the next 3 runs.  Once you get inside 48hrs, you can use the higher resolution for some insights to microclimate nuances.  Until then, it's not very helpful.
 
Storm5 said:
metwannabe said:
NAM held the s/w stronger longer, then as it gets to it's long range, past 48hrs, it starts to flatten it out......  I'd watch this trend today, my guess is it will hold it stronger and longer with each run
Click to expand...
agree

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What's your thoughts on the lack of moisture?
 
Nam came in colder, I bet 12z GFS comes in colder. Potential winter storm on the horizon,lol
 
accu35 said:
Nam came in colder, I bet 12z GFS comes in colder. Potential winter storm on the horizon,lol
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yep will be a good one for NC

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Storm5 said:
accu35 said:
Nam came in colder, I bet 12z GFS comes in colder. Potential winter storm on the horizon,lol
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yep will be a good one for NC

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LOL!


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At 66 looks like GA starts getting a little snow lol
 
I still like where I'm sitting in my area, if the darn GFS stops weakening then I'm good
 
nam blows up and is pounding NC . Looks like the euro except the nam flattens the wave and the euro does not

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Ooooo I'm getting NAM'd..... first NAM'ing of the year Lol
 
The NAM (or any short to medium range model) is like a newborn baby for anything past 48 hours. It hasn't been around that long to observe and figure out what's going on. It would be like the GFS for days 9-16. Think about it!
 
I actually looked at the rest of the Nam run, and it actually forms a snow band close to my house, lol. It's getting closer.
 
Congrats NC. Now I can expect to hear from my annoying sister in law in charlotte bragging about her bratty kids playing in the snow while we get cold rained on.
 
NAM really starts delivering the goods at 69-72, good stripe of snow it appears
 
packfan98 said:
The NAM (or any short to medium range model) is like a newborn baby for anything past 48 hours.  It hasn't been around that long to observe and figure out what's going on.  It would be like the GFS for days 8-16.  Think about it!
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Great point
 
I think the models are overdoing the warm temps. Some places will have good snow amounts on the ground. There won't be much temp moderation.

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Really pumped about the trends we're seeing now!

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FLO said:
Congrats NC. Now I can expect to hear from my annoying sister in law in charlotte bragging about her bratty kids playing in the snow while we get cold rained on.
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:dodgy:
 
accu35 said:
packfan98 said:
The NAM (or any short to medium range model) is like a newborn baby for anything past 48 hours.  It hasn't been around that long to observe and figure out what's going on.  It would be like the GFS for days 8-16.  Think about it!
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Great point
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Agree, and I like that thinking... it's logical.

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nam looks like many gefs and eps members
cc6326668d16ebc29ae0360fefcf98f6.jpg


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Brick Tamland said:
Really pumped about the trends we're seeing now!

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lol its was always gonna go NW.  Not sure why you were concerned
 
I say the GFS comes in colder, who's with me (+_+)
 
NorthGAWinterWx said:
I think the models are overdoing the warm temps. Some places will have good snow amounts on the ground. There won't be much temp moderation.

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Based on what? Not being facetious. I genuinely want to know.


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Fwiw the NAM-para is about 12 hours slower with precip and really blossoms on the NW side @72 giving a decent band of frozen precip from NE Ga thru SC/NC
 
Storm5 said:
nam looks like many gefs and eps members
cc6326668d16ebc29ae0360fefcf98f6.jpg


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And the NAM shows that heavier band of snow that I been mentioning that sets up over ATL and up to the Carolina's...good job NAM!

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Well we will no in a lil over an hr.. I seem to be in a good spot so far for something wintry heck I'll take flurries.
 
metwannabe said:
Fwiw the NAM-para is about 12 hours slower with precip and really blossoms on the NW side @72 giving a decent band of frozen precip from NE Ga thru SC/NC
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Cool.  Let's see it!
 
Storm5 said:
nam looks like many gefs and eps members
cc6326668d16ebc29ae0360fefcf98f6.jpg


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You know it will this far out
 
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