Tries to get a little Atlantic moisture involved....i think I'm in lovetellicowx link said:
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mydoortotheworld
Member
safe to say that at least in NGA, most of this will all be snow
WXinCanton
Member
.5 QPF in my backyard all frozen with temps in the 20's. Wrap it up and put it under the tree.
WXinCanton
Member
that run is a score for central AL/GA.
Tries to get a little Atlantic moisture involved....i think I'm in lovetellicowx link said:
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Yeah, really ramps up nice for you guys
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Thought it was gonna cut 95 first, but it's further south in Gulf so by time it does its actually a little further east for you
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Colder here...going to be a big ice storm around here...GFS has me at or below 35 12hrs prior then near or below 32 once precipitation starts.
JLL1973
Member
i got the shaft on that run
VegasEagle
Member
Ouch!Deltadog03 link said:
dsaur
Member
And that's what a good low placement does for you. Get the low crossing Fla, and it opens up the whole deep south. Now can this hold until d day 
It's what I asked for earlier, and now I've got it...but can I keep it?? Chris, this ones for you! Even El K gets in on this. T
It's what I asked for earlier, and now I've got it...but can I keep it?? Chris, this ones for you! Even El K gets in on this. T
Webberweather53 link said:
yes sir! lol...not saying this is right, but IMHO more believable than the 12z run....this honestly isn't that far off from what the CMC and EURO are showing..
VegasEagle
Member
BOOM! 100 PAGES! 250 under/ over?!?
Remember how early on in this run there was talk of trending towards the Euro then how this is a big hit.... well msuwx on the other board has a great post about why this did take a step towards the Euro and it is a little concerning. Long story short there was more interaction with the ns early on but then it separated, little longer interaction and we get a strung out mess like the Euro... of course if the Euro separates then out just a little it goes toward the gfs. Still so much can go right and so much can go wrong. Model watch responsibly
packfan98
Moderator
DadOfJax
Member
That was a great looking run. Just be aware, it was a trend towards the Euro. I expect the Euro to move a little as well, but I fully expect the GFS to trend more. It would still give most people around here their average yearly snowfall (if not more).
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
bhs1975 link said:
We need more stream separation for the disturbance in the Pacific northwest to cut-off, amplify and slow down as it enters the Great basin and southwestern US
mydoortotheworld link said:
The northern stream is essentially the polar jet stream, while the southern stream is also known as the subtropical jet stream. Split flow over the Pacific with 2 defined streams (as we currently have) is often a necessary ingredient for overrunning/southern sliders in the southeastern US, mid-south, and southern plains. Split flow in the northeastern Pacific typically occurs when we observe a large-scale ridge in the vicinity of Alaska (-EPO), which usually retrogrades westward with time and moves towards the Bering Sea & far eastern Siberia (-WPO). Essentially, w/o going into much of the physical details why this occurs, -WPOs often lag -EPOs... Here's a nice animation of the NCEP Reanalysis top 20 -EPO days in January rolled forward a week and another animation showing the z500 in the week leading up to the top 20 -WPO days in January. Notice how the Alaskan ridge retrogrades westward into Bering Sea/Eastern Siberia, while the southeastern US ridge becomes increasingly amplified with time. This pattern evolution is virtually what we're gonna see later this week and into the following week, hence we can probably expect milder wx to (@ least try to) return by the middle portions of the month...
Top 20 January -WPO days animation (Day -7 to 0, i.e. in the 7 days preceding the strongest daily -WPOs) (1948-Present)
Top 20 January -EPO days animation (Day 0 to +7, i.e. in the days immediately following the strongest daily -EPOs) (1948-Present)
Here's the GEFS forecast next few weeks... Return of the SE US ridge in week 2 and beyond looks more legitimate this time around
