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Going to stick with yesterday thinking hwy 278 south better shot at accumulating sleet and snow in Alabama with area east of I-65 benefiting from some wrap around. Amounts tricky but will also stay with 1" amounts generally speaking. Probably some type of banding possible but just exactly where still crap shot gut says axis from Dekalb Bibb to Chambers zone stands the better shot. That said scattered light snow possible for most of north and central AL Friday afternoon into Saturday morning.
I went back and read it for myself...that's not exactly what he said.
Spann: IMPORTANT POINTS: Long time readers/viewers know I like to tell people what we know, and I don’t tell them what we don’t know. So… this is what we know this morning…
*Moisture over the northern half of the state will be pretty limited, so snow amounts, if any, will most likely be light, under 1/2 inch (if you see snow at all).
*There is some chance, we we see phasing between the two precipitation areas Friday night, a heavier strip of wintry precipitation could develop over Central Alabama, but there is no way now of knowing exactly where that happens. And, this could be more sleet and freezing rain than snow. Guidance from NOAA’s WPC hints freezing rain problems could develop Friday night along I-85 from Montgomery toward Opelika. Freezing rain is simply rain that falls with temperatures at or below 32 degrees at the surface.
*In terms of travel impact, light snow Friday morning could bring a few icy spots to North Alabama. But, the highest potential for icy travel issues should come Friday night with temperatures drop into the 20s over the northern half of the state.
*Sure, anything can happen, but this it NOT an analog to January 28, 2014 (snowmageddon). Snow was falling with temperatures near 20 degrees during that event; the ice accretion process on roads, as we have learned, is radically different with surface temperatures that cold. Temperatures will be in the 29-34 degree range Friday/Friday night. Yes, some icy travel is very possible, but it won’t be like the horrible day in January 2014.
Spann: IMPORTANT POINTS: Long time readers/viewers know I like to tell people what we know, and I don’t tell them what we don’t know. So… this is what we know this morning…
*Moisture over the northern half of the state will be pretty limited, so snow amounts, if any, will most likely be light, under 1/2 inch (if you see snow at all).
*There is some chance, we we see phasing between the two precipitation areas Friday night, a heavier strip of wintry precipitation could develop over Central Alabama, but there is no way now of knowing exactly where that happens. And, this could be more sleet and freezing rain than snow. Guidance from NOAA’s WPC hints freezing rain problems could develop Friday night along I-85 from Montgomery toward Opelika. Freezing rain is simply rain that falls with temperatures at or below 32 degrees at the surface.
*In terms of travel impact, light snow Friday morning could bring a few icy spots to North Alabama. But, the highest potential for icy travel issues should come Friday night with temperatures drop into the 20s over the northern half of the state.
*Sure, anything can happen, but this it NOT an analog to January 28, 2014 (snowmageddon). Snow was falling with temperatures near 20 degrees during that event; the ice accretion process on roads, as we have learned, is radically different with surface temperatures that cold. Temperatures will be in the 29-34 degree range Friday/Friday night. Yes, some icy travel is very possible, but it won’t be like the horrible day in January 2014.
Probably a dumb question, but what do we need to happen to have more expansive precipitation in Alabama? Low in the Gulf needs to form sooner? (This could totally be unrelated, new and learning)
Olaf said:
Pfft love the selective quote detail http://www.alabamawx.com/?p=109922 read for yourself fuk in black and white
SD said:
Can't lie I kinda feel that way today too.... Eps in it's wheelhouse. GFS slowly ticking NW with precip too, 12z today should be very interesting to say the least hoping for some model agreement one way or the other
I don't think it's too much to ask for everyone to keep the Spann said this no he didn't argument in banter or not at all.... some folks want to just read data output/analysis/opinions and not have to wade through all those other post to find it. Thanks
edit: and any other tv meteorologist arguments that might want to pop up
edit: and any other tv meteorologist arguments that might want to pop up
metwannabe said:
No worries. Just wanted to clarify his whole blog post instead of the one sentence someone had already posted and picked. Also, thought some others might be interested in what he said since hes a pretty well known met. My bad...
Good points. I'm curious to see if we start to see the nam have any agreement to all of this. Should start seeing that today. Big time runs today. I like areas north of 20 and 85 NE. Could be a big hit for NC
Would you include Athens in that area? We might be at the lower end. Thermal profiles may hurt us in the long run. Something tells me to trust the GFS... has shown so much consistency over the last 5 runs.Deltadog03 said:
Olaf said:metwannabe said:
No worries. Just wanted to clarify his whole blog post instead of the one sentence someone had already posted and picked. Also, thought some others might be interested in what he said since hes a pretty well known met. My bad...
Not a problem just really trying to make a preemptive strike haha.... seen these things escalate too many times and it's getting close to go time
MRX AFD:
000
FXUS64 KMRX 040917 CCA
AFDMRX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
350 AM EST Wed Jan 4 2017
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)...
Cold front continues to push east through the forecast area
early this morning. Rain showers will quickly taper off this
morning and cloud cover will become scattered as cooler, drier air
moves in behind the front. With the cooler air moving in, afternoon
temperatures will be steady or slowly falling. Cloud cover will
increase from the west again tonight, ahead of our next weather
system. With the colder airmass firmly in place, lows will dip
into the 20s across the area.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)...
Forecast confidence is growing as models continue to come into
alignment over the upcoming snow event late Thursday through Friday.
Although there are still some discrepancies between accumulation
amounts, timing and areal extent of the frozen pcpn looks to be
increasing in consensus among the models.
Most of Thursday should be dry area wide as cold air pushes in.
Temperatures will struggle to climb into the middle 30s during the
day over SW Virginia and northern portions of the Cumberland
Plateau. By afternoon, the leading edge of the arctic airmass pushes
into northern areas as shortwave trough passes along the TN-KY-VA
border. As that passes larger scale trough axis begins to push into
the area early Friday. Result is increasing clouds with pcpn to
develop by late afternoon. With a very dry airmass at the surface,
expect much of the pcpn to start and stay as snow, even though
initial sfc temps may be above freezing. Biggest disparity in
guidance is on amounts, particularly over SW VA. However, all
solutions seems to agree that there will be more moisture available
from Thursday night through Friday to see snow totals of 2-3 in SW
VA. Expect highest elevations of SW VA to see up to 3 inches of snow
while the rest of that area gets around 2 inches over the course of
the 30 hour event.
For Saturday, models are in general agreement on the track of
developing Gulf low expected to move east across the northern Gulf
coast then NE thereafter. ECMWF has the more northern low track and
therefore the greater pcpn amounts in our SW NC counties. GFS soln
is much further south tracking across central Florida before turning
up the coast, and that solution is much drier for our area. Tended
to lean a little more toward the ECMWF solution for now as there are
enough GFS Ensemble members keeping the system further north hinting
at a possible solution which lies closer to the ECMWF at this time.
Therefore keeping chance POPS over the eastern half of the area
early Saturday before shifting chance POPS to just mountains of east
TN and SW NC by Saturday afternoon.
Beyond Saturday, good model agreement on cold and dry weather
through Tuesday with gradual warming ahead of the next sensible
weather maker approaching the area on Wednesday.
000
FXUS64 KMRX 040917 CCA
AFDMRX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
350 AM EST Wed Jan 4 2017
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)...
Cold front continues to push east through the forecast area
early this morning. Rain showers will quickly taper off this
morning and cloud cover will become scattered as cooler, drier air
moves in behind the front. With the cooler air moving in, afternoon
temperatures will be steady or slowly falling. Cloud cover will
increase from the west again tonight, ahead of our next weather
system. With the colder airmass firmly in place, lows will dip
into the 20s across the area.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)...
Forecast confidence is growing as models continue to come into
alignment over the upcoming snow event late Thursday through Friday.
Although there are still some discrepancies between accumulation
amounts, timing and areal extent of the frozen pcpn looks to be
increasing in consensus among the models.
Most of Thursday should be dry area wide as cold air pushes in.
Temperatures will struggle to climb into the middle 30s during the
day over SW Virginia and northern portions of the Cumberland
Plateau. By afternoon, the leading edge of the arctic airmass pushes
into northern areas as shortwave trough passes along the TN-KY-VA
border. As that passes larger scale trough axis begins to push into
the area early Friday. Result is increasing clouds with pcpn to
develop by late afternoon. With a very dry airmass at the surface,
expect much of the pcpn to start and stay as snow, even though
initial sfc temps may be above freezing. Biggest disparity in
guidance is on amounts, particularly over SW VA. However, all
solutions seems to agree that there will be more moisture available
from Thursday night through Friday to see snow totals of 2-3 in SW
VA. Expect highest elevations of SW VA to see up to 3 inches of snow
while the rest of that area gets around 2 inches over the course of
the 30 hour event.
For Saturday, models are in general agreement on the track of
developing Gulf low expected to move east across the northern Gulf
coast then NE thereafter. ECMWF has the more northern low track and
therefore the greater pcpn amounts in our SW NC counties. GFS soln
is much further south tracking across central Florida before turning
up the coast, and that solution is much drier for our area. Tended
to lean a little more toward the ECMWF solution for now as there are
enough GFS Ensemble members keeping the system further north hinting
at a possible solution which lies closer to the ECMWF at this time.
Therefore keeping chance POPS over the eastern half of the area
early Saturday before shifting chance POPS to just mountains of east
TN and SW NC by Saturday afternoon.
Beyond Saturday, good model agreement on cold and dry weather
through Tuesday with gradual warming ahead of the next sensible
weather maker approaching the area on Wednesday.
I am getting concerned about I-85 and the cold not being able to make it over the mountains in time. Some of the models have hinted at this and since this is a Non CAD situation and the cold is coming from West to East, it normally takes longer for the cold to get to the CAD areas, if at all. Unless we see that High Pressure pop back up again in the NE, places like GSP could have some mixing issues or just a cold rain.