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Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

6Z NAM - Out to hr 6 and the s/w approaching OR coast is stronger than it was on the 00z NAM, it also looks like slightly less interaction between the s/w and NS.
 
Hr. 12 looks like even less interaction occurring between the S/W and the N/S vs 00z NAM

06Z NAM
namconus_z500_vort_us_13.png


00Z NAM
namconus_z500_vort_us_19.png
 
That 06z Nam image is beautiful! A definite step in a good direction....can we get a boom?!
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
EPS mean trended much better for NC
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Indeed, but not too good going down further south. Very good for VA, KY, WV, and coastal mid Atlantic states.
 
You know there's some big dogs with disagreement when you look closer you have 2 max zones...one way down east and another in the MTNS...still got some sorting out to do with the EURO. I do not foresee both of these areas scoring with a gap in between.
 
WPC goes boom! Freezing rain probs also introduced for parts of Florida.
 
Mannn. Bama gonna get screwed again. Maybe not. We still have time.
 
Hi I'm new here just found this site just wondering what the new 6z nam had to say about the upstate sc
 
GSP
[font=monospace, monospace]But...if we do remain far enough into the cold air to see a perfect
rain-snow transition...it won't be by much. Per the top-down
technique, the GFS brings the warm nose only one or two tiers of
counties away from our southern border during the most likely time of
snowfall (near daybreak sat). If that were to shift north we'd see
sleet and/or freezing rain mix in. More disconcerting: the 00z ec has
come in with above-freezing 850mb temps as far northwest as I-85;
partial thicknesses from that model also point to freezing rain over
the southeast half of the County warning forecast area.

For now we feel the best choice is to stick with the GFS-like
solution, which is more in line with the trends of late; this puts
the peak pops early Saturday and does not support freezing rain or ice pellets within
the County warning forecast area border. Accums are based mostly on wpc quantitative precipitation forecast and a 12:1 ratio;
this would be slightly above climo, which seems likely based on the
exceptionally cold profiles.[/font]
 
Olaf said:
Mannn. Bama gonna get screwed again. Maybe not. We still have time.
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We have really today to see where we stand, can't trust the Nam this far out. Hopefully good trends today.6zgfs starts in a bit
 
RAL
South and east of that corridor there could
be a mix of sleet between 03z and 09z. Regardless of the location,
once the precipitation transitions to snow, it will remain snow
through Saturday morning. For now, preliminary snow amount forecast
will range from 1-1.5 inches in the northwest to 2-4 inches in the
southeast. Again though, the confidence in those numbers is low at
this time.
 
Lol 18z GFS Para tracks low down near Miami.

00c96ab3d3adc6cca95534fd2134c467.jpg


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StoneMtnWx said:
Lol 18z GFS Para tracks low down near Miami.
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Yeah, idk I was just about to post this.. models all over the place I don't even feel like I have a decent idea about what is going to happen.
 
FFC just posted a new forecast discussion. In short: light accumulations outside of the mountains, nada south of I-85. Basically, toss the GFS (darn).

Models have finally come into very good agreement in the extended
forecast with a lot more confidence id the upcoming winter
weather scenario setting up for the weekend. The extended period
starts off with the high pressure ridge from the short
term...exiting the area and making way for the frontal boundary
over the Mississippi and Tennessee river valleys. This frontal
boundary moves slowly into north GA Fri morning bringing precip
back to the area. as this front moves in we will see some rain and
snow across north and portions of central GA but Temps get up
into the upper 30s and higher for areas south of a Rome to
Gainesville line. Any issues friday will be mainly north of that
and mostly in the higher elevations of the N GA mountains. The
next wave moves into West GA Friday night/Sat morning and this is
where the biggest concern will be. As this next wave moves in
temperatures Friday night will get down into the 20s and 30s CWA
wide so we will see some sort of mixed or frozen precipitation
possibly as far south as columbus in the west and Sandersville in
the east. We are looking at the possibility of some accumulations
for areas north and west of a Newnan to Gainesville line with the
majority of the locations receiving and inch or less. There will
be some pockets of higher amounts nearing 2 to 2.5 inches but they
should be mostly in the N GA Mountains. This wave moves east very
rapidly Sat and exits the area by late Sat Afternoon/Evening. High
pressure builds back into the area for Sunday and looks to keep
things dry through Tuesday. Temperatures stay fairly cool Sunday
and Monday with highs in the 30s and 40s...and lows in the teens
and 20s.
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My grids still have rain/snow to snow Friday night and Saturday, but no info on accumulations.
 
Trends look good right now for RDU area. Euro was a big run and GFS shifting NW. Blend the two and it is a big storm here.
 
Short term models looking terrible if you want snow in north Georgia.


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As of rn...looking like a Carolina, GA storm. I want yestersays runs back!!
 
SnowrockinGA said:
Deltadog03 said:
We shall see. But south of I-20 I think we are setting up for a cold ass rain. :(
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Including the airport. I live in South Fulton County. I think it will trend colder!
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Does it show it starting as rain in Cumming too?
 
[font=Tahoma, sans-serif]6z GEFS.  Bumped up mean totals.  A little further NW too.  Should be more agreement with the individual members to get a 6 inch mean around Goldsboro, NC.[/font]
[font=Tahoma, sans-serif]
snod.conus.png
[/font]
 
Well BMX went with a blend of "we have no clue" and "look out your window on Friday"....lol. Nightmare of a situation for alot of offices, but the trends for AL say its not going to amount to much. I hope those trends are wrong.
 
Can someone post hr72 GFS Op run, it showed snow towards my area, the graft obove didn't show that
 
accu35 said:
Can someone post hr72 GFS Op run, it showed snow towards my area, the graft obove didn't show that
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The map I posted is the total accumulated snowfall from hours 0-96.  What fell at hr 72 is on the map.
 
Looks like at least 5 inches here with the Euro and GFS. Shift the Euro a little south and the GFS a little north and could be a lot more here.
 
packfan98 said:
accu35 said:
Can someone post hr72 GFS Op run, it showed snow towards my area, the graft obove didn't show that
Click to expand...

The map I posted is the total accumulated snowfall from hours 0-96.  What fell at hr 72 is on the map.
Click to expand...

OK that might have been ice I was looking at
 
Today is the day where we need to see a stronger system and colder air. Hopefully the 12z will come in gold, there is still potential for us central Alabama folks to see little more than models shows
 
accu35 said:
packfan98 said:
accu35 said:
Can someone post hr72 GFS Op run, it showed snow towards my area, the graft obove didn't show that
Click to expand...

The map I posted is the total accumulated snowfall from hours 0-96.  What fell at hr 72 is on the map.
Click to expand...

OK that might have been ice I was looking at
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Here you go!
zr_acc.us_se.png
 
Olaf said:
Mannn. Bama gonna get screwed again. Maybe not. We still have time.
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I had 5" in a big storm in 2014 and 7" in February 2015.  I figure I'll never see snow again in my lifetime!   :D :mad:
 
Anyone have individual members for the GEFS 6z


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4.5 inches for Atl acording to 06z GFS....interesting but taking it as grain and salt. one question...did 6zGFS trended colder.
 
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