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So, looking over the 0z Euro snowfall output, I agree with the snowfall amounts north of ATL. This is when the blend of GFS comes into play, I still think that there will be a narrow heavy band setting up through ATL, central SC and up to eastern NC. The reason why I think this is because the track of low and with the circulation, this brings that heavier moisture over those areas. This could occur soon as the low is off of the SE coast. (These areas do get the SW flow at first with GOM interaction)
Shawn said:
Yep, They've got most of the lower dynamics, but are missing a lot of upper dynamics and thermodynamics (like 2m temps). Seems like the cheapest subscriptions I can find are a couple hundred a year. I have enough expensive hobbies already that I think I would have a tough time selling that one to the wife... ;-)
HixsonWX said:
I have never used it, but check out this: $10 a month with discounts. I think they offer a trial - http://www.eurowx.com/
HixsonWX said:
If you don't mind it delayed you can get EURO snowfall totals, msl, 2m temps, free on WeatherUnderGround. Just go to the interactive radar and play with their settings on the right under Model Center. Good for those who wanna sleep and check later.
This discussion will focus on the potential wintry precipitation
late Friday and Saturday. A majority of the previous forecast
discussion remains valid.
The models have been trending closer together the past 24 to 48
hours, but some newer data is interesting. Generally speaking, the
model suite is fairly agreeable with the positive tilt trough
dropping into the Mississippi Valley and then into the Tennessee
Valley by Saturday. Only fairly minor timing and height
differences noted. Zonal flow noted ahead of this feature. The
models have a trend of flip flopping in the 4-6 day time frame
before becoming more in line. The latest ECMWF has just trended
back to closer to previous solutions that were warmer. The
GFS/GEFS have continued the trend of plenty of cold air all the
way to Montgomery. Models tend to have difficulty with the colder
airmasses and the extent of the penetration southward. The
thermodynamic parameters amongst the models do not match up but
will have to intensely watch these developments.
At this time, will introduce graphics that indicate the potential
of accumulating wintry precipitation for areas north of a line
from Demopolis to Alexander City. It is a bit too early to
establish specific precipitation types and amounts, but all types
look possible at this point. We will start narrowing the focus by
Wednesday if these trends continue. Stay tuned, there will be
adjustments on this developing dynamic situation.
late Friday and Saturday. A majority of the previous forecast
discussion remains valid.
The models have been trending closer together the past 24 to 48
hours, but some newer data is interesting. Generally speaking, the
model suite is fairly agreeable with the positive tilt trough
dropping into the Mississippi Valley and then into the Tennessee
Valley by Saturday. Only fairly minor timing and height
differences noted. Zonal flow noted ahead of this feature. The
models have a trend of flip flopping in the 4-6 day time frame
before becoming more in line. The latest ECMWF has just trended
back to closer to previous solutions that were warmer. The
GFS/GEFS have continued the trend of plenty of cold air all the
way to Montgomery. Models tend to have difficulty with the colder
airmasses and the extent of the penetration southward. The
thermodynamic parameters amongst the models do not match up but
will have to intensely watch these developments.
At this time, will introduce graphics that indicate the potential
of accumulating wintry precipitation for areas north of a line
from Demopolis to Alexander City. It is a bit too early to
establish specific precipitation types and amounts, but all types
look possible at this point. We will start narrowing the focus by
Wednesday if these trends continue. Stay tuned, there will be
adjustments on this developing dynamic situation.
Shawn said:
Thanks! I'll check that out! Btw, this forum is amazing! I really appreciate the work you guys have put into this. I freaked out a little bit when I went to Talk Weather one day and it wasn't there anymore.
SoutheastRidge said:You get 2-3" if the ratio is 15:1 !HixsonWX said:WilkesboroDude said:chapelhillwx said:
I need that to slide West by a few more counties and I'll be happy...
I would take that and run! That's a really optimistic ratio, though. I would be surprised if that played out.
Your local NWS discussions will talk ratios closer to the event. At this point it's pretty much mute...obviously more important things right now regarding track, precip type, and qpf.
More worried about it being too cold/dry for the north-west areas vs high ratios. Boone and surrounding areas have been burned by this in recent years. Be cloudy and temps 10 degrees colder than forecast with no precip...and extremely light when it does hit the surface.
So the euro shows another run that is different then the gfs. Oh well if this doesn't look good for my area by tomorrow night I'll call it day on this storm for northern middle Tennessee. Time for bed for me but good luck to everyone else and here's hoping to waking up to a big surprise on the models wherever you all may be.
SoutheastRidge said:
Ken Cook was excellent! I didn't care for him at first but then I changed my mind. Does anyone remember Steve Browne on 11 Alive? He was my alltime favorite ATL met.
I've been largely optimistic (cautiously optimistic at times as well) for the past week following this storm, but you know you start feel bummed when you know there's a battle going on between 3-6 inches of snow (GFS) and T-1 inch of snow (Euro) and you realize the T-1 inch is the more likely outcome because of what specific model is saying it. Yeah, I know the snow maps don't mean crap with relation to what the outcome will or won't be, but it's still discouraging because I know how this song and dance goes and it's not pretty. The only lame excuse I can give is maybe the EURO still has a warm bias at play and it ends up marginally better here than it says right now.
I still think T-2 is a good call for mby given where we are with all the various models, My confidence of it being on the high end of that just has decreased some since 12 hrs ago. I'm curious to see what the 06z NAM will be in a bit then I'm off to bed.
I still think T-2 is a good call for mby given where we are with all the various models, My confidence of it being on the high end of that just has decreased some since 12 hrs ago. I'm curious to see what the 06z NAM will be in a bit then I'm off to bed.
If I were to draw a noticeable ratio line it would be near the black line and north. The best would be in WV but little to no precip. Upstate SC, GA, south-east of Charlotte-Raleigh line I think there would be mixing issues anyways to prevent all snow. Looks all snow north of i40 west of i77.
With the GFS still insisting on an uncommon far south track, I decided it was worthwhile to do some research of Gulf lows that cross central or S FL in winter. I'm sure I missed quite a few, but I think I found a good portion of the more prominent ones. The ones I know about occurred about once per decade on average. The last five I found were 2/12/2010, 1/2-3/2002, 1/18/1992, 3/2/1980, and 2/9-10/1973. Since 1950, when daily AO/NAO's are available, they have tended to occur with a -AO/-NAO. It looks like there will be a +AO/+NAO on 1/7/17. However, one major exception of the 7 since daily AO/NAO's started was 2/9-10/1973, which was during a solid +AO/+NAO.
I found 13 of these storms. ATL got major SN 5 times, got significant wintry precip. 3 other times, got light wintry precip. twice, and got a trace of SN or nothing only three times (25%). They never got a cold rain. When it precipitated, it was always cold enough for wintry.
Macon snow records are incomplete, but I do know that they very likely got significant to major SN 6-7 times out of the 13. Even SAV got a good bit of action with a major wintry event 3 times, a significant wintry event 3 other times, a light wintry event 2 times, and just a cold rain only 5 times.
I'm not counting 12/1989 because that low didn't form until just east of FL.
I found 13 of these storms. ATL got major SN 5 times, got significant wintry precip. 3 other times, got light wintry precip. twice, and got a trace of SN or nothing only three times (25%). They never got a cold rain. When it precipitated, it was always cold enough for wintry.
Macon snow records are incomplete, but I do know that they very likely got significant to major SN 6-7 times out of the 13. Even SAV got a good bit of action with a major wintry event 3 times, a significant wintry event 3 other times, a light wintry event 2 times, and just a cold rain only 5 times.
I'm not counting 12/1989 because that low didn't form until just east of FL.