meg says gfs is on crack. heress their long term discussion
12Z GFS was the odd model out with respect to the weekend, dropping
compact closed low through the Midsouth on Saturday. Resultant
GFS model-derived snowfall for Saturday is near a foot over east
AR & west TN. The ECMWF and Canadian conversely maintain dry and
mostly clear conditions for the weekend, having long before dampened
the upstream low over the Rockies on Thursday and weakening it
into an open wave, passing through the lower MS River valley early
Friday. Given the better interrun consistency of the ECMWF and
Canadian models, and their agreement with each other, have
dropped model blended precip chances to below mentionable thresholds
for Saturday`s forecast. In any case, cold midwinter- like temperatures
will prevail before milder temps return early next week.