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Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

Euro's running!

bouncycorn said:
Local Media hopping all over the RPM model... the worst model in all of meteorology. Shows rain moving into NGA around 6am Friday then all out by midday friday with very light accumulations limted to extreme northwest Georgia.

Well then, maybe I'll be able to get my milk run done before the hype machine cranks up and everyone goes crazy.  :D
 
NWS BIRMINGHAM HWO
THERE IS A CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING WINTRY PRECIPITATION FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCES ARE NORTH OF A LINE FROM
DEMOPOLIS TO ALEXANDER CITY. IT IS A BIT TOO EARLY AT THIS TIME
TO PIN POINT AMOUNTS OF SPECIFIC PRECIPITATION TYPES. PLEASE STAY
UP TO DATE ON THE LATEST FORECAST AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND.


NWS GSP HWO
..FRIDAY...WINTER WEATHER POSSIBLE. COLD AIR AND INCREASING
MOISTURE FROM A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD SUPPORT
ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
..SATURDAY...WINTER WEATHER POSSIBLE.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.


NWS Raleigh HWO
WHILE MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME, THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
IT IS TOO EARLY TO SAY WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY ACCUMULATION.
RESIDENTS ARE ADVISED TO KEEP ABREAST OF THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK.
 
Deltadog03 said:
Well...I have no idea why I stayed up...but I did....euro come bro!

Deltadog, do you think the trend to warm continue or it is that the model can't handle this type of cold air.
 
There should not be rain, maybe at first, changing over to snow. Cold air starts filtering in before low and during low. With the track of low the warm air should not overtake the 850 MB.
 
Deltadog03 said:
Well...I have no idea why I stayed up...but I did....euro come bro!

lead us to glory delta!
 
Ken Cook was a very good forecaster. He was conservative, but he knew his stuff. If a big storm was coming, he was sure to point out the potential in the systems.
 
A little less interaction thru hr 18...euro looks pretty good with the closed ULL...lets see how long that lasts.
 
Looks like our wave starts out a bit stronger versus 12z Euro. Carry it home!
 
SoutheastRidge said:
SnowFlowXXL said:
Ken Cook used to be the worst lmao

Yeah he was. Great guy but wow was he conservative. It really annoyed me. Of course maybe its best to be conservative when you forecast for a city that averages about 2" per year.

I once said the same thing about Ken Cook.  Got my hand slapped by Perry lol
 
Shawn said:
Looks like our wave starts out a bit stronger versus 12z Euro.  Carry it home!

It does..and less interaction with the NB...slightly
 
bouncycorn said:
Ken Cook was a very good forecaster. He was conservative, but he knew his stuff. If a big storm was coming, he was sure to point out the potential in the systems.

Very true. I think he was the best tv met Atlanta has had in my lifetime.
 
SnowFlowXXL said:
Never fails.  Stay up till 3, five days before the event. By the time snow gets here I'm drained.

That was me after the February 2010 snowstorm.  I, along with many others, followed that sucker relentlessly for 9 or 10 days.  Once, that doozy was over, I fell asleep on the sofa about 30 minutes after it was over.  I was pooped after following that particular storm for basically a week and a half.  

I tell 'ya, it's worth it, if you get a good snowstorm in the end.
 
Thru hr30 there is a def. decrease or less interaction with the NB
 
NB is northern branch everyone. thats the thing that can flatten/shear our wave out if it gets too much involved.
 
vort max is stronger and actually further west a smidge than 12z run...def. again, less interaction. with the NB
 
Already going a tad colder for areas. Might be a better run than 12z with what I've seen so far.

Oh yeah, looking nicer back there!
 
BIG difference at hr48...more consolidated out west and less NB so far....
 
Assuming the precip is a little slower getting to us the stronger it gets?
 
Looks like this is getting away from the shred and colder Temps from 12z first part looking good it seems
 
even bigger changes from 12z run at hour 54....more bundled energy over NV dropping SE and def. decrease in NB interaction.
 
Goldman75 said:
Assuming the precip is a little slower getting to us  the stronger it gets?

The colder is able to filter in ahead of time which helps a lot of people. If its slower to get here there is likely less shearing and the energy stays bundled together so likely stronger.
 
Our high is starting to build in at hr 60...still big changes from the 12z run with stream interaction and the vort looks more almost Neutral tilted...or trying too.... lets see where this ends up
 
So I ran the Cobb output from gfs I had to run it for Tuskegee about 30miles southwest of me it showed total snow of 3.2.
 
Chris, I think this is going to be a good one. Not sure about temps yet, but the wave is much better. Night and day better actually!
 
Storm5 said:
still don't see 8 whiffs
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At this point I would take any of the members that have CHA painted blue in a heartbeat. Of course I obviously really love e2 and e5...
 
hr66...about completely separate from norther stream....still need to be colder, but it appears colder than 12z run.
 
Shawn said:
Chris, I think this is going to be a good one.  Not sure about temps yet, but the wave is much better.  Night and day better actually!

Agreed!
 
precip looks further south

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great changes all the way around, but still too warm at hr 72...yes its better, moisture moving in...but its all rain at this point. it appears
 
Deltadog03 said:
great changes all the way around, but still too warm at hr 72...yes its better, moisture moving in...but its all rain at this point. it appears

For Atlanta or what areas?
 
SnowrockinGA said:
Deltadog03 said:
great changes all the way around, but still too warm at hr 72...yes its better, moisture moving in...but its all rain at this point. it appears

For Atlanta or what areas?
precip is south of atlanta

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Thundersnow89 said:
Storm5 said:
precip looks further south

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Couldnt sleep?
Haha I was only 15 minutes away son stayed up

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precip further NW this run

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Storm5 said:
precip looks further south

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no prob for moisture...but outside maybe NC with some light snow, and possibly on NW side, its all rain at this point....a cold butt rain....hr 78
 
It's ok. The precip will trend northward over the next couple of days like it does almost every time.
 
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