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Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

I'm saying the 18z GFS, stays the course, or slightly higher totals!!! That's right, SD gets 36"! Instead of the measly 33" at 12z! :)
 
So when is the event, no matter the size, suppose to begin?  Friday night or during the day sat?  I have saw both mentioned
 
Storm, I've seen you mention the NAM in non-positive terms quite a bit (Canadian too). Being somewhat a newbie, which model(s) should I pay attention to and which ones do I just pretend don't exist?
 
Storm5 link said:
all this NAM talk makes me chuckle

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Hey I chuckle at cmc talk too it gave me like 5 hurricanes this year, I only got one.... Lol

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tarheels2 link said:
So when is the event, no matter the size, suppose to begin?  Friday night or during the day sat?  I have saw both mentioned
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There are two waves.  Wave one is more of a TN/NC/Upper SC deal.  Might or might not do much.
Wave 2 time varies depending on how fast it ejects out of the West (if at all).
 
Storm5 link said:
all this NAM talk makes me chuckle

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Me too, we're not close enough to the short range to use the NAM

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Tarheel1 link said:
I'm saying the 18z GFS, stays the course, or slightly higher totals!!! That's right, SD gets 36"! Instead of the measly 33" at 12z! :)
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Only 36....I'm out on this one

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Shawn link said:
Lookout elsewhere made a good point for you guys thinking about giving up.  Euro runs twice, not four times a day.  Include the Para and we end up with 6 GFS runs vs 2 Euro.
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That is a great point to be honest. Ya euro is ultimately a better model but it's not always correct.
 
I wonder why FFC hasn't put out their afternoon AFD yet. Maybe due to questions regarding this system?
 
Eh, maybe a little more stream interaction vs 06/12z through 30. not much else to say right now.  by 36 it gets a 1 contour. lets see where she goes.
 
CummingWx link said:
I wonder why FFC hasn't put out their afternoon AFD yet. Maybe due to questions regarding this system?
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Trying to find a boat to paddle back to the office!  It is pouring!!!
 
CummingWx link said:
I wonder why FFC hasn't put out their afternoon AFD yet. Maybe due to questions regarding this system?
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Have to believe there's way too much uncertainty at this point.  I've got a 20% chance of snow on Friday/Sat based on their grids...best we can expect at this point.


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