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Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

Deltadog03 link said:
[quote author=Webberweather53 link=topic=80.msg7575#msg7575 date=1483395213]
Im sure Chris in Macon, GA is gonna like this run... Awfully close call for south-central GA
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yes sir!  lol...not saying this is right, but IMHO more believable than the 12z run....this honestly isn't that far off from what the CMC and EURO are showing..
[/quote]
If we had the Ukie more detailed I think this is close to what it would be. You're right tho, CMC and Euro are not far off this solution.

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Deltadog03 link said:
Colder here...going to be a big ice storm around here...GFS has me at or below 35 12hrs prior then near or below 32 once precipitation starts.
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Deltadog03 link said:
[quote author=Webberweather53 link=topic=80.msg7575#msg7575 date=1483395213]
Im sure Chris in Macon, GA is gonna like this run... Awfully close call for south-central GA
Click to expand...

yes sir!  lol...not saying this is right, but IMHO more believable than the 12z run....this honestly isn't that far off from what the CMC and EURO are showing..
[/quote]

lol I dont blame you, but yea the difference between the models is so subtle... IMO, best option is to go somewhere in the middle, close to the UKMET which is essentially a blend of the GFS & ECMWF atm
 
metwannabe link said:
Remember how early on in this run there was talk of trending towards the Euro then how this is a big hit.... well msuwx on the other board has a great post about why this did take a step towards the Euro and it is a little concerning.  Long story short there was more interaction with the ns early on but then it separated, little longer interaction and we get a strung out mess like the Euro... of course if the Euro separates then out just a little it goes toward the gfs.  Still so much can go right and so much can go wrong.  Model watch responsibly
Click to expand...
Yep a little interaction is fine and will do some members some good. The 0z and 12z euro hinted at separation down around the 4 corners but never did it. I think interaction is unavoidable given the proximity of the wave to the NS.

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Weaker doesn't really bother me at all, I could care less for ice so I'd like to see a weaker solution, but not so weak that the storm doesn't happen at all.

I'd really like for it to be later in the week. Like, I'd freeze this run and take it as the winter storm here and be fine for the winter.
 
I think some saying it was a huge step to the Euro are over exaggerating it.
 
I believe the Euro is showing a little of its bias, but that's just me. Learned a long time ago....watch the UKMET during the winter...for whatever reason, a lot of times it foreshadows the Euro.

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SD link said:
[quote author=metwannabe link=topic=80.msg7617#msg7617 date=1483396035]
Remember how early on in this run there was talk of trending towards the Euro then how this is a big hit.... well msuwx on the other board has a great post about why this did take a step towards the Euro and it is a little concerning.  Long story short there was more interaction with the ns early on but then it separated, little longer interaction and we get a strung out mess like the Euro... of course if the Euro separates then out just a little it goes toward the gfs.  Still so much can go right and so much can go wrong.  Model watch responsibly
Click to expand...
Yep a little interaction is fine and will do some members some good. The 0z and 12z euro hinted at separation down around the 4 corners but never did it. I think interaction is unavoidable given the proximity of the wave to the NS.

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[/quote]

Totally agree about the interaction as long as they just dance and don't hook up
 
Brick Tamland link said:
I think some saying it was a huge step to the Euro are over exaggerating it.
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Not a huge step to it at all.  Just watch 500mb and make sure we don't see more shearing vs Euro bending to the GFS is all we can do though.  UKMET might not be far off.  Wish we had better maps.
 
Well, if that was a step to the Euro, and the Euro comes a step to the GFS which is still showing a big storm, then not sure what is bad about that.
 
Someone post gefs snow map when it comes out please, thanks
 
Brick Tamland link said:
I think some saying it was a huge step to the Euro are over exaggerating it.
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mote stream interaction . it was a lean towards the euro in that regards

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Webberweather53 link said:
[quote author=Deltadog03 link=topic=80.msg7613#msg7613 date=1483395989]
[quote author=Webberweather53 link=topic=80.msg7575#msg7575 date=1483395213]
Im sure Chris in Macon, GA is gonna like this run... Awfully close call for south-central GA
Click to expand...

yes sir!  lol...not saying this is right, but IMHO more believable than the 12z run....this honestly isn't that far off from what the CMC and EURO are showing..
[/quote]

lol I dont blame you, but yea the difference between the models is so subtle... IMO, best option is to go somewhere in the middle, close to the UKMET which is essentially a blend of the GFS & ECMWF atm
[/quote]
Agreed!
 
SD link said:
[quote author=metwannabe link=topic=80.msg7617#msg7617 date=1483396035]
Remember how early on in this run there was talk of trending towards the Euro then how this is a big hit.... well msuwx on the other board has a great post about why this did take a step towards the Euro and it is a little concerning.  Long story short there was more interaction with the ns early on but then it separated, little longer interaction and we get a strung out mess like the Euro... of course if the Euro separates then out just a little it goes toward the gfs.  Still so much can go right and so much can go wrong.  Model watch responsibly
Click to expand...
Yep a little interaction is fine and will do some members some good. The 0z and 12z euro hinted at separation down around the 4 corners but never did it. I think interaction is unavoidable given the proximity of the wave to the NS.

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[/quote]
Very true...there will be some interaction for sure...I really don't think the euro is that far off from what the GFS shows...EURO should have more qpf inland
 
UKMET z500 & SLP @ 96 HR, sort of a compromise between GFS & ECMWF. I'd take this in a heartbeat. 1004mb low 100 miles or so offshore isn't bad for eastern NC

GZ_D5_PN_096_0000.gif
 
I used to have the study saved on my old phone...in these setups, the UKMET tends to have the highest verification scores and better lead time, than the Euro or GFS. But it rarely gets watched or mentioned.

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