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Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

tellicowx link said:
[quote author=Webberweather53 link=topic=80.msg7707#msg7707 date=1483399574]
It's worth mentioning here that even once we properly sample the primary features involved in this setup another issue we're going to have to contend w/ @ some pt in the short range is the dry biases most guidance has wrt isentropic upglide (likely to be the main lifting mechanism here). Models often underestimate its poleward extent and amplitude. The February 11 2014 storm is a good recent example of this that immediately comes to mind to me... I was in FAY and we were only expecting 1" at most but ended up w/ ~4" of snow
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Wouldn't that put more into play....If I'm understanding you right?

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[/quote]
Yeah I remember either 1999 or 2000 when I was stationed at Bragg. we had a system come thru and wasn't expecting anything in FAY, and ended up with a pretty good storm.

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Wonder if Spann feel outta his chair and threw his laptop after that run lol jk.

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swbamaweatherguy link said:
NWS Jackson MS AFD  bit the hook and likes the GFS!!!
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yep. This from Jackson:  this will bring increasing
chances for wintry precipitation late in the week into early next
weekend. Some chances for wintry precip are possible next Friday and
possibly into Saturday (if the GFS is correct on slower solution).
Continued to lean toward wet and colder solution due to consistency
of the Euro/GFS the past couple of days, the GFS coming in line with
the upper pattern and ensemble support. Left slight chance POPS in
Friday and possibly into Saturday. Looking at forecast temperature
profiles, boundary layer, including surface wet-bulb temperatures, and
temperatures aloft seem to be supportive of winter weather, including
light snow, per Euro/Canadian, along and north of I-20 Friday morning
and down to I-20 Saturday morning, per the GFS. These timing issues
and details will have to be ironed out the next few days. This model
agreement and less divergence could change but wintry weather
potential looks to be on the increase later this week.
 
metwannabe link said:
Well the GEFS is another thing of beauty, increase in the mean

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Pd8Bf06Sas4yQ.gif
 
SD link said:
[quote author=metwannabe link=topic=80.msg7710#msg7710 date=1483399819]
Well the GEFS is another thing of beauty, increase in the mean

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Pd8Bf06Sas4yQ.gif

[/quote]
LMAI...Yeah kinda like Oparah...here's some snow for aeverybody

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David Glenn at News Channel9 didn't pull the trigger but, he's still going with snow showers for now.  The key words from him was "for now".  His words "this will have to be closely monitored".  Also, he agrees the cold is in-place for CHA area.  Question this time is precep???
 
tellicowx link said:
Wonder if Spann feel outta his chair and threw his laptop after that run lol jk.

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Haha, that's what I was thinking lol

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Ron Burgundy link said:
[quote author=bouncycorn link=topic=80.msg7702#msg7702 date=1483399465]
1e794320d52a252688e7b77078551911.png

LOL!!!


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Glenn will let you know about the 4" of snow about the time you're shoveling it off your driveway....
[/quote]
Where does he get this stuff? Does he have empirical evidence to support this?


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The 18z GEFS members are pretty evenly split on snow totals for Chattanooga:

<2" - 7 members
2-5" - 6 members
6"+ - 6 members
 
tellicowx link said:
[quote author=tellicowx link=topic=80.msg7708#msg7708 date=1483399688]
[quote author=Webberweather53 link=topic=80.msg7707#msg7707 date=1483399574]
It's worth mentioning here that even once we properly sample the primary features involved in this setup another issue we're going to have to contend w/ @ some pt in the short range is the dry biases most guidance has wrt isentropic upglide (likely to be the main lifting mechanism here). Models often underestimate its poleward extent and amplitude. The February 11 2014 storm is a good recent example of this that immediately comes to mind to me... I was in FAY and we were only expecting 1" at most but ended up w/ ~4" of snow
Click to expand...
Wouldn't that put more into play....If I'm understanding you right?

Sent from my SM-S820L using Tapatalk
[/quote]
Yeah I remember either 1999 or 2000 when I was stationed at Bragg. we had a system come thru and wasn't expecting anything in FAY, and ended up with a pretty good storm.

Sent from my SM-S820L using Tapatalk


[/quote]

I think you're referring to the January 24-25 2000 storm, completely different set of circumstances in that case, but the forecast confidence was similar (relatively low)... I personally wouldn't mind getting a foot of snow in Fayetteville, we haven't seen that since December 1958, when as much as 23" was recorded in Pope AFB & Fort Bragg... Most of the counties immediately surrounding Fayetteville have seen at least one (in some cases more) 1 ft+ snow storms since... February 9-11 1973, December 22-24 1989, January 24-25 2000, and January 2-3 2002 were certainly some very close calls and storms that immediately come to mind

December-11-12-1958-NC-Snowmap.png
 
mydoortotheworld link said:
[quote author=ForsythSnow link=topic=80.msg7723#msg7723 date=1483400435]
GEFS members almost all look like all in or not at all.
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we should be very scared of the presence of e6,7,10, & 17
[/quote]
But with e3,13,18, and 21, it balances it out. Two extremes balance each other.
 
tellicowx link said:
[quote author=Webberweather53 link=topic=80.msg7707#msg7707 date=1483399574]
It's worth mentioning here that even once we properly sample the primary features involved in this setup another issue we're going to have to contend w/ @ some pt in the short range is the dry biases most guidance has wrt isentropic upglide (likely to be the main lifting mechanism here). Models often underestimate its poleward extent and amplitude. The February 11 2014 storm is a good recent example of this that immediately comes to mind to me... I was in FAY and we were only expecting 1" at most but ended up w/ ~4" of snow
Click to expand...
Wouldn't that put more into play....If I'm understanding you right?

Sent from my SM-S820L using Tapatalk


[/quote]

Yes it would... Even if the low pressure track doesn't change at all on the ECMWF/CMC/UKMET, the correction for this bias alone could shift the axis of precipitation 50-100 miles northward. Just as recently as hurricane Matthew, we've seen this systematic bias wrt isentropic lifting play itself out time and time again in the models and I wouldn't be surprised to see it here
 
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