Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

[Shawn]

all in

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Hey can you post the ice map, there's a reason it showing 1-3 in mby

 

[Shawn]

We are roughly 48 hours out before the system is in the Gulf and beginning to effect western portions of the deep south. Surely we should begin seeing the models fine tuning to a general idea. Gfs has my attention, and the rgem extrapolated out looks really nice down stream. Hopefully the rest of the 12z guidance can bring more confidence.

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[Shawn]

RGEM anyone?

 

[Shawn]

Today's models will "tell the tale" as far as how they trend....If they trend together at all

 

[Shawn]

And now the totals go down here and the NW trend stops. Just great.

I like where we are, I would rather play in real snow vs 240 hr snow

+100000  plus if it misses us I'd much rather it miss south so some of those that don't get in on winter weather as often can enjoy it, even our SC member(s) that love to hate on us NC peeps.

no joke!  its all good Brick...EURO will come in and stick to its guns...lol

 

[Shawn]

Also, can I just throw this out there please? Since when is a potential 1-3 or maybe 2-3" snow strip across the deep south not a big deal?? I am sorry, if there is even an inch of snow, thats a big deal. I think some people, and this is not pointed at anyone, fail to realize that 2-3" of snow is a MAJOR impact on the deep south. I know the mtns its not as big of a deal, but if CLT or RDU got 2-3" that is still a big deal......ok, rant over.

 

[Shawn]

We are roughly 48 hours out before the system is in the Gulf and beginning to effect western portions of the deep south. Surely we should begin seeing the models fine tuning to a general idea.  Gfs has my attention, and the rgem extrapolated out looks really nice down stream. Hopefully the rest of the 12z guidance can bring more confidence.

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I'd offer that we've had a pretty good "general idea" for a couple days now. Trying to fine tune amounts >24hrs out around here is a crap shoot at best. GFS has been rock solid with the track and weaker/suppressed look run after run. I MO it's about to score a major coup over the ECMWF which is a good thing.

 

[Shawn]

Looks like the RGEM might be about to show the Tennessee Valley some love???...

 what is that 1010 low in the gulf?

Pretty sure that is our low for this threat. This is only 48 hours out, though.

 

[Shawn]

Also, can I just throw this out there please?  Since when is a potential 1-3 or maybe 2-3" snow strip across the deep south not a big deal??  I am sorry, if there is even an inch of snow, thats a big deal.  I think some people, and this is not pointed at anyone, fail to realize that 2-3" of snow is a MAJOR impact on the deep south.  I know the mtns its not as big of a deal, but if CLT or RDU got 2-3" that is still a big deal......ok, rant over.

x10000000000000000000

 

[Shawn]

Upsloping is really what helps the totals across NE GA and W NC mtns....it's also why my side and Chattanooga is in a bad spot due to the downsloping on this side of the mtns as the system passes.

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[Shawn]

Delta...it's especially a big deal with the surface Temps that are pronged and even the antecedent conditions starting tomorrow AM. We will definitely see major travel disruption issues somewhere in the deep South.

 

[Shawn]

Also, can I just throw this out there please?  Since when is a potential 1-3 or maybe 2-3" snow strip across the deep south not a big deal??  I am sorry, if there is even an inch of snow, thats a big deal.  I think some people, and this is not pointed at anyone, fail to realize that 2-3" of snow is a MAJOR impact on the deep south.  I know the mtns its not as big of a deal, but if CLT or RDU got 2-3" that is still a big deal......ok, rant over.

Many times 2-4 inches has kept kids out of school for nearly a week.

 

[Shawn]

Also, can I just throw this out there please? Since when is a potential 1-3 or maybe 2-3" snow strip across the deep south not a big deal?? I am sorry, if there is even an inch of snow, thats a big deal. I think some people, and this is not pointed at anyone, fail to realize that 2-3" of snow is a MAJOR impact on the deep south. I know the mtns its not as big of a deal, but if CLT or RDU got 2-3" that is still a big deal......ok, rant over.

I am with you dog. Everyone keeps saying "bad" runs with 1-3 inches. 1-3 inches is awesome! Especially if it stays around for a couple of days. Bring me 2 inches any day.

 

[Shawn]

Also, can I just throw this out there please?  Since when is a potential 1-3 or maybe 2-3" snow strip across the deep south not a big deal??  I am sorry, if there is even an inch of snow, thats a big deal.  I think some people, and this is not pointed at anyone, fail to realize that 2-3" of snow is a MAJOR impact on the deep south.  I know the mtns its not as big of a deal, but if CLT or RDU got 2-3" that is still a big deal......ok, rant over.

x10000000000000000000

Definitely. We all saw what the storm in 2014 did to Atlanta. Fortunately, the meteorologists around here have already expressed that there is the potential for accumilating snow in Atlanta, so people at least know something may be coming.

Also, Atlanta stays in the mid to lower 20s all day Monday per the GFS. Sends the area into the low teens Monday morning as well.

 

[Shawn]

Also, can I just throw this out there please?  Since when is a potential 1-3 or maybe 2-3" snow strip across the deep south not a big deal??  I am sorry, if there is even an inch of snow, thats a big deal.  I think some people, and this is not pointed at anyone, fail to realize that 2-3" of snow is a MAJOR impact on the deep south.  I know the mtns its not as big of a deal, but if CLT or RDU got 2-3" that is still a big deal......ok, rant over.

Atlanta shut down over 1 inch of snow. Nuff said

 

[Shawn]

The 12z CMC looks more amped with this disturbance out west...

 

[Shawn]

4-5 inches imby. I'm happy.

 

[Shawn]

Good trends this morning, I agree Chris 1-3 2-3 is a very big deal, especially when your tracking it from Texas to east coast.

 

[Shawn]

The 12z CMC looks more amped with this disturbance out west...

warmer or colder?

 

[Shawn]

The 12z CMC looks more amped with this disturbance out west...

It had promise but really flattened out. The run looked colder, but was very gfs like

 

[Shawn]

Sorry didn't mean to rant. Again, not directed towards anyone in here.

 

[Shawn]

The 12z CMC looks more amped with this disturbance out west...

warmer or colder?

Warmer than GFS, but colder than last run of Euro.

 

[Shawn]

I still think a euro and gfs blend is the way to go at this point

 

[Shawn]

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o

[quote pid='16269' dateline='1483545301']
Those of us in SE TN & N GA get shafted this run...
[/quote]

 

[Shawn]

I keep noticing that there has been a trend of higher snow totals running from Northeast SC to Southeast NC on many of the different models.

 

[Shawn]

Hr 24 cmc

 

[Shawn]

How often is it that we, in AL, aren't having to worry about temps, but having to worry about precip! The precip usually always pans out, and not the temps. If the precip does pan out, we will be golden!

 

[Shawn]

Sorry didn't mean to rant. Again, not directed towards anyone in here.

Sure.

 

[Shawn]

most alabama and Georgia folks won't like the cmc . it looks nothing like previous runs

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[Shawn]

Temps really iffy from Montgomery to just south of I20 on this run. Certainly warmer than a few days ago. Mixture of snow and sleet to rain. Not a trend I like.

 

[Shawn]

Sorry didn't mean to rant. Again, not directed towards anyone in here.

Chris, your posts are priceless. Everytime you post, I get excited. Thanks for all your great posts/contributions to this forum! Very much appreciated!

 

[Shawn]

The GFS looks more realistic to me. This setup just likes one that would mean 1-2" around I20...maybe a few heavier pockets. Just wondering if this NW trend will continue lol.

 

[Shawn]

Also, can I just throw this out there please?  Since when is a potential 1-3 or maybe 2-3" snow strip across the deep south not a big deal??  I am sorry, if there is even an inch of snow, thats a big deal.  I think some people, and this is not pointed at anyone, fail to realize that 2-3" of snow is a MAJOR impact on the deep south.  I know the mtns its not as big of a deal, but if CLT or RDU got 2-3" that is still a big deal......ok, rant over.

2-3" really isn't that big of a deal in CLT.  You forget, 75% of us are NY transplants!

 

[Shawn]

Everything staying consistent.... excited to see who wins out

 

[Shawn]

Sorry didn't mean to rant. Again, not directed towards anyone in here.

Sure.

I'm serious Brick it really wasn't.

 

[Shawn]

How often is it that we, in AL, aren't having to worry about temps, but having to worry about  precip! The precip usually always pans out, and not the temps. If the precip does pan out, we will be golden!

Very true...As someone pointed out, it's about time to start paying attention to the High Res models also

 

[Shawn]

Temps really iffy from Montgomery to just south of I20 on this run. Certainly warmer than a few days ago. Mixture of snow and sleet to rain. Not a trend I like.

If the precip is underdone a bit like I think, temps shouldn't be that much of an issue...especially within 20/30 miles of I20.

 

[Shawn]

CMC still gave EAST metro and inch

 

[Shawn]

The GFS looks more realistic to me.  This setup just likes one that would mean 1-2" around I20...maybe a few heavier pockets.  Just wondering if this NW trend will continue lol.

I would agree with that. I actually think gfs did better with moisture and Temps all around this run. Snow line sank south just a little bit.

 

[Shawn]

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I think most should be be encouraged by the 12z gfs...not saying its totally right, but it was colder and more wide spread with precipitation...I know NC are not so much, and I can understand that for sure.

NC looks totally covered in snow. Beauty is in the eye of the beholder.


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