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Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

ATLWxFan link said:
[quote author=Ron Burgundy link=topic=80.msg7721#msg7721 date=1483400256]
[quote author=bouncycorn link=topic=80.msg7702#msg7702 date=1483399465]
1e794320d52a252688e7b77078551911.png

LOL!!!


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Click to expand...
Glenn will let you know about the 4" of snow about the time you're shoveling it off your driveway....
[/quote]
Where does he get this stuff? Does he have empirical evidence to support this?


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[/quote]

He's always just played the odds when it comes to winter weather in NGA. He operates under the "none of the credit / all of the blame" mantra when it comes to early snow forecasts. I guess I can't blame him but when you see how definitive he is for the viewing public while we (enthusiasts) all know how fluid the situation is, it's maddening.
 
Hey folks just another reminder that we may have to enter a storm mode state later this week if things continue which means we may have to disable guest viewing. All you have to do to make sure you don't get left out is join.  It takes 30 seconds and you aren't required to post.

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Ron Burgundy link said:
[quote author=ATLWxFan link=topic=80.msg7727#msg7727 date=1483400763]
[quote author=Ron Burgundy link=topic=80.msg7721#msg7721 date=1483400256]
[quote author=bouncycorn link=topic=80.msg7702#msg7702 date=1483399465]
1e794320d52a252688e7b77078551911.png

LOL!!!


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Click to expand...
Glenn will let you know about the 4" of snow about the time you're shoveling it off your driveway....
[/quote]
Where does he get this stuff? Does he have empirical evidence to support this?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
[/quote]

He's always just played the odds when it comes to winter weather in NGA. He operates under the "none of the credit / all of the blame" mantra when it comes to early snow forecasts. I guess I can't blame him but when you see how definitive he is for the viewing public while we (enthusiasts) all know how fluid the situation is, it's maddening.
[/quote]

Exactly. It's really misleading to make ridiculous statements about one model over the other. No one would fault him for saying that significant "snowfall is possible but there is considerable uncertainty".


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Stormlover link said:
GEFS ens chance of over an inch is 60-70% up here....
15870772_1539836889377297_574302369_n.png

and of over 6 inches is 20-30%
15841178_1539837019377284_733029805_n.png
Click to expand...
Will l have a new Grandbaby in Florence and this would be a good weekend to visit and make her a snowman lol
 
Ron Burgundy link said:
[quote author=ATLWxFan link=topic=80.msg7727#msg7727 date=1483400763]
[quote author=Ron Burgundy link=topic=80.msg7721#msg7721 date=1483400256]
[quote author=bouncycorn link=topic=80.msg7702#msg7702 date=1483399465]
1e794320d52a252688e7b77078551911.png

LOL!!!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Glenn will let you know about the 4" of snow about the time you're shoveling it off your driveway....
[/quote]
Where does he get this stuff? Does he have empirical evidence to support this?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
[/quote]

He's always just played the odds when it comes to winter weather in NGA. He operates under the "none of the credit / all of the blame" mantra when it comes to early snow forecasts. I guess I can't blame him but when you see how definitive he is for the viewing public while we (enthusiasts) all know how fluid the situation is, it's maddening.
[/quote]
Glenn doesn't use a blend of models far as I know...the 0z Euro should be a completely different story. (More in line with GFS).

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The Euro and EPS tend to be the most accurate model but it did fail with either this system now or one that's happened recently. I think our ultimate answer is going to trend closer to the Euro but not completely toward it.
 
The 12z Euro is in line with the GFS pretty much. The Euro is warmer, less moisture as well. I'm not agreeing with the less moisture the Euro has cause the low will cross over the NE Gulf (If track verifies). In the northeastern GOM, the water surface temperatures are warm. Warm waters mean, high QPF. This is why I don't agree with the less moisture the Euro has.

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tellicowx link said:
[quote author=bouncycorn link=topic=80.msg7702#msg7702 date=1483399465]
1e794320d52a252688e7b77078551911.png

LOL!!!


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Click to expand...
Our chances just skyrocketed lol

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[/quote]
Burns used to be aggressive when forecasting snow. Now he tries his best to put dampers on snow forecasts


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I know we still have a ways to go but as it looks right now what should central AL be looking at. A dry powdery snow or a wet sloppy snow.
 
NorthGAWinterWx link said:
[quote author=Ron Burgundy link=topic=80.msg7733#msg7733 date=1483401066]
[quote author=ATLWxFan link=topic=80.msg7727#msg7727 date=1483400763]
[quote author=Ron Burgundy link=topic=80.msg7721#msg7721 date=1483400256]
[quote author=bouncycorn link=topic=80.msg7702#msg7702 date=1483399465]
1e794320d52a252688e7b77078551911.png

LOL!!!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Glenn will let you know about the 4" of snow about the time you're shoveling it off your driveway....
[/quote]
Where does he get this stuff? Does he have empirical evidence to support this?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
[/quote]

He's always just played the odds when it comes to winter weather in NGA. He operates under the "none of the credit / all of the blame" mantra when it comes to early snow forecasts. I guess I can't blame him but when you see how definitive he is for the viewing public while we (enthusiasts) all know how fluid the situation is, it's maddening.
[/quote]
Glenn doesn't use a blend of models far as I know...the 0z Euro should be a completely different story. (More in line with GFS).

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk


[/quote]
What's this based on?
 
Tagat link said:
I know we still have a ways to go but as it looks right now what should central AL be looking at. A dry powdery snow or a wet sloppy snow.
Click to expand...
If we get it would be wet.
 
sigwx link said:
[quote author=Tagat link=topic=80.msg7745#msg7745 date=1483402204]
I know we still have a ways to go but as it looks right now what should central AL be looking at. A dry powdery snow or a wet sloppy snow.
Click to expand...
If we get it would be wet.
[/quote]

That is what I thought. Last true powdery snow I remember was Jan 2014 here. Most every other snow was wet and sloppy. Great for building snowmen but rough on trees and power-lines.
 
NForsythWX link said:
[quote author=NorthGAWinterWx link=topic=80.msg7739#msg7739 date=1483401554]
[quote author=Ron Burgundy link=topic=80.msg7733#msg7733 date=1483401066]
[quote author=ATLWxFan link=topic=80.msg7727#msg7727 date=1483400763]
[quote author=Ron Burgundy link=topic=80.msg7721#msg7721 date=1483400256]
[quote author=bouncycorn link=topic=80.msg7702#msg7702 date=1483399465]
1e794320d52a252688e7b77078551911.png

LOL!!!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Glenn will let you know about the 4" of snow about the time you're shoveling it off your driveway....
[/quote]
Where does he get this stuff? Does he have empirical evidence to support this?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
[/quote]

He's always just played the odds when it comes to winter weather in NGA. He operates under the "none of the credit / all of the blame" mantra when it comes to early snow forecasts. I guess I can't blame him but when you see how definitive he is for the viewing public while we (enthusiasts) all know how fluid the situation is, it's maddening.
[/quote]
Glenn doesn't use a blend of models far as I know...the 0z Euro should be a completely different story. (More in line with GFS).

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk


[/quote]
What's this based on?
[/quote]

Burns sucks and he is a troll.. we used to talk a lot via DM and i finally figured out why he hates winter so much.. Its bc he said the winter and snow in the south is more dangerous and costly than severe weather and heat...
 
NForsythWX link said:
[quote author=NorthGAWinterWx link=topic=80.msg7739#msg7739 date=1483401554]
[quote author=Ron Burgundy link=topic=80.msg7733#msg7733 date=1483401066]
[quote author=ATLWxFan link=topic=80.msg7727#msg7727 date=1483400763]
[quote author=Ron Burgundy link=topic=80.msg7721#msg7721 date=1483400256]
[quote author=bouncycorn link=topic=80.msg7702#msg7702 date=1483399465]
1e794320d52a252688e7b77078551911.png

LOL!!!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Glenn will let you know about the 4" of snow about the time you're shoveling it off your driveway....
[/quote]
Where does he get this stuff? Does he have empirical evidence to support this?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
[/quote]

He's always just played the odds when it comes to winter weather in NGA. He operates under the "none of the credit / all of the blame" mantra when it comes to early snow forecasts. I guess I can't blame him but when you see how definitive he is for the viewing public while we (enthusiasts) all know how fluid the situation is, it's maddening.
[/quote]
Glenn doesn't use a blend of models far as I know...the 0z Euro should be a completely different story. (More in line with GFS).

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk


[/quote]
What's this based on?
[/quote]
It's my thinking, the Euro only updates 2 times a day. The GFS has been consistent on each of it's runs from today. We even had similar set ups from past runs on the GFS. Normally the GFS is verified at this range.

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Thunder Wives Tale
We just had lightning and thunder here in Marietta. Guess we'll see if that old bit of folklore comes true this weekend


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Tagat link said:
[quote author=sigwx link=topic=80.msg7747#msg7747 date=1483402513]
[quote author=Tagat link=topic=80.msg7745#msg7745 date=1483402204]
I know we still have a ways to go but as it looks right now what should central AL be looking at. A dry powdery snow or a wet sloppy snow.
Click to expand...
If we get it would be wet.
[/quote]

That is what I thought. Last true powdery snow I remember was Jan 2014 here. Most every other snow was wet and sloppy. Great for building snowmen but rough on trees and power-lines.
[/quote]It would be a nice if we could build a snowman. l have not had snow since Feb. 2010
 
The main thing we'll be looking for in this system seems like northern stream interaction. Some northern stream interaction is fine, but if there is too much interaction it's going to shear this wave out too much.

As long as this system is able to release from interaction with the NS without being weakened too much, I think we'll see a winter storm for someone in the southeast.
 
sigwx link said:
[quote author=Tagat link=topic=80.msg7748#msg7748 date=1483402743]
[quote author=sigwx link=topic=80.msg7747#msg7747 date=1483402513]
[quote author=Tagat link=topic=80.msg7745#msg7745 date=1483402204]
I know we still have a ways to go but as it looks right now what should central AL be looking at. A dry powdery snow or a wet sloppy snow.
Click to expand...
If we get it would be wet.
[/quote]

That is what I thought. Last true powdery snow I remember was Jan 2014 here. Most every other snow was wet and sloppy. Great for building snowmen but rough on trees and power-lines.
[/quote]It would be a nice if we could build a snowman. l have not had snow since Feb. 2010
[/quote]

Every little snow we have had here since Jan 2014 only lasted a few hours and was gone. That being said we have missed on just about every little flurry that came since.
 
NorthGaWinter link said:
[quote author=NForsythWX link=topic=80.msg7746#msg7746 date=1483402376]
[quote author=NorthGAWinterWx link=topic=80.msg7739#msg7739 date=1483401554]
[quote author=Ron Burgundy link=topic=80.msg7733#msg7733 date=1483401066]
[quote author=ATLWxFan link=topic=80.msg7727#msg7727 date=1483400763]
[quote author=Ron Burgundy link=topic=80.msg7721#msg7721 date=1483400256]
[quote author=bouncycorn link=topic=80.msg7702#msg7702 date=1483399465]
1e794320d52a252688e7b77078551911.png

LOL!!!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Glenn will let you know about the 4" of snow about the time you're shoveling it off your driveway....
[/quote]
Where does he get this stuff? Does he have empirical evidence to support this?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
[/quote]

He's always just played the odds when it comes to winter weather in NGA. He operates under the "none of the credit / all of the blame" mantra when it comes to early snow forecasts. I guess I can't blame him but when you see how definitive he is for the viewing public while we (enthusiasts) all know how fluid the situation is, it's maddening.
[/quote]
Glenn doesn't use a blend of models far as I know...the 0z Euro should be a completely different story. (More in line with GFS).

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk


[/quote]
What's this based on?
[/quote]

Burns sucks and he is a troll.. we used to talk a lot via DM and i finally figured out why he hates winter so much.. Its bc he said the winter and snow in the south is more dangerous and costly than severe weather and heat...
[/quote]
That doesn't make sense though. Ok I know this is banter material and I'll stop now but the danger and cost of winter weather in the south is PRECISELY why you give the models credence when they predict the possibility of winter weather. You can do so in a balanced manner without fear mongering.


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