By 72 the BL issues break in the savannah river valley but it just stinks to see them. Another GFS run and few differences to me again. The precip shield seems to be leaking north but the low doesn't seem to be too much.
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The surface low is again far to the south and is about 2 mb weaker. Hopefully, that weakening is not going to be a new trend. The good news is that the surface high to the north is holding on and maybe even a tick stronger.
If the low does move across C FL like that, it would be highly doubtful ATL gets non-wintry precip to dominate.
If the low does move across C FL like that, it would be highly doubtful ATL gets non-wintry precip to dominate.
Storm5 said:
GFS has been stubborn for slight accumulations all along for our area. It will be interesting as the day goes on and we get in range of the mesoscale models how they match up (or not) with this
Storm5 said:
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I think most should be be encouraged by the 12z gfs...not saying its totally right, but it was colder and more wide spread with precipitation...I know NC are not so much, and I can understand that for sure.
This run looks much more realistic with the more expansive QPF field. 700mb RH saturation and good UVVS have been there the last few runs put the precipitation field wasn't reflecting that. Not to mention a still mostly untapped gulf with rich moisture to work with. This has felt like an I20 special..2-3" type system to me all along. Lucky for us it's early January and falling at night mostly. Let's hope good trends continue
SD said:
+100000 plus if it misses us I'd much rather it miss south so some of those that don't get in on winter weather as often can enjoy it, even our SC member(s) that love to hate on us NC peeps.
Brick Tamland said:
Bumped up totals for the mountains and WNC despite the low being a lot weaker -- I'd say in general that's a good sign about how healthy precip will be on the northern edge of this, including for you.
Keep in mind 3 runs ago you didn't have a flake on the GFS and now you're at 2"+ on every model.
WXinCanton said:
That is quite the snow gradient between Dalton (almost nothing) and Gainesville around half a foot. Looks like about 3" where I'm sitting. Give me 3" and I'll be happy till next winter.