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Wintry 1/26-1/28 Winter Storm Potential

snowlover91 said:
Anyone have Euro maps? It looks a bit better at 72 and slower than other models, possibly better stream interaction.
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Directly overhead! :)

Will be interesting to have a look at the distribution of the EPS member lows and compare to the last run.
 
If snow does fall, it will a nice wet snow, probably 7:1 ratios or something.
 
If it's too slow, could daytime heating on Monday afternoon prevent this from being a snow event even if it did shift northwest enough to the point where the Coastal Plain got a sizable amount of QPF? It looks like Monday will have a high in the mid-50s if the storm takes its current modeled track.
 
Fountainguy97 said:
All models agree nicely on a safe OTS track 200-300 miles too far away.

Nice consensus on 12z to wrap this one up.
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The best track for a big RDU snow is just offshore Hatteras by about 50 miles or so, we're too far east by 100-125 miles if that atm going off the Euro and even less if you're in the coastal plain. I wouldn't call that a nice, safe OTS track
 
Webberweather53 said:
The best track for a big RDU snow is just offshore Hatteras by about 50 miles or so, we're too far east by 100 miles if that atm going off the Euro. I wouldn't call that a nice, safe OTS track
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True. EPS will be interesting. If we have more than 2 members showing a large snow storm there is still a leg to stand on.

That being said the euro is a nice shift but it really does fall in line with other models at 12z. It is on the western edge of guidance.

BUT also the euro is WAY WAY slower with the system than gfs family. Maybe that’s a sign that euro is a bigger trend than the surface maps show??

Here is the time difference. It’s big.

B06CDE77-4AD6-4D55-84BC-92F28696D3D1.png7A8F30AE-A551-402E-AAD2-BFA6BEF0E16E.png

So while the euro run does line up with track of other models it’s way slower. Must be more interaction between the waves?
 
12z Euro definitely still going in the right direction, the edge of the precip came a little further inland, but notice how the heavier precipitation offshore became considerably more intense and jumped way NW this run. A few tweaks like this past run and 1" totals would come knocking for coastal sections of NC.

Onto the 12z EPS
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With complex scenarios of northern/southern energy interacting and the timing being so critical... a few hours difference and 100 miles can be all it takes to shift things significantly inland. The 12z EPS members will be interesting to see. Here's a look at the past 3 GEFS runs, a solid NW shift. Raleigh and points east still have a shot if things continue to trend favorably.
gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_fh66_trend.gif
 
Fountainguy97 said:
True. EPS will be interesting. If we have more than 2 members showing a large snow storm there is still a leg to stand on.

That being said the euro is a nice shift but it really does fall in line with other models at 12z. It is on the western edge of guidance.

BUT also the euro is WAY WAY slower with the system than gfs family. Maybe that’s a sign that euro is a bigger trend than the surface maps show??

Here is the time difference. It’s big.

View attachment 13250View attachment 13251
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There haven't been virtually any members up to this point that showed a sizable snowstorm but this setup still "had a leg to stand on" because the pattern was extremely fickle and a few minor tweaks away from a big storm. Looking at the number of members that produce "x" solution is nice but you have to understand they're almost always underdispersive (i.e. inter-member spread is way too small). Even the 50 member EPS is not invincible from this, the GEFS is just a herd of sheep.
 
metwannabe said:
Reel it in guys..... I've got to go fire someone so probably won't see me the rest of today. If I'm not back by tonight send out the search team and yest this is banter but seriously this is also one part of my job I hate.
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I wish you could fire SEridge
 
Webberweather53 said:
There haven't been virtually any members up to this point that showed a sizable snowstorm but this setup still "had a leg to stand on" because the pattern was extremely fickle and a few minor tweaks away from a big storm. Looking at the number of members that produce "x" solution is nice but you have to understand they're almost always underdispersive (i.e. inter-member spread is way too small). Even the 50 member EPS is not invincible from this, the GEFS is just a herd of sheep.
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Yeah I guess I was just using the “count of snowstorms” as a gauge to if the EPS support went up or not.

Honestly though, for Raleigh and east this could very well be the best synoptic setup we get for a large snowstorm this year.

All the players are here for sure. And the envelope of possible outcomes still includes a snowstorm. We haven’t really narrowed down much the last few days on that front.

Really it’s likely that the current modeling is the extreme eastern side of possible outcomes. If you notice, there are very very few ensemble members east of the current OP models. Vast majority are in line of west of them.

Euro actually looks very good at 5H. Better than gfs family for sure
 
For those with access to the nice Euro 5h maps, would you be able to post maybe a few of them showing how the interaction between the northern/southern streams look in the 48-66 hour range? I'm curious to see what the differences are that it's showing.
 
Waiting for RGEM precip maps to come out but the ensembles have a few showing a strong LP near the coast.
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