Cary_Snow95
Member
H5 is what needs watching. Pv ever so slightly west and northern energy a tad steeper out to 36
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Wintry 1/26-1/28 Winter Storm Potential
- Thread starter deltadog03
- Start date
Fountainguy97
Member
tiny improvement again with gfs. but man its a game of inches right now
Cary_Snow95
Member
As Jon said earlier, we really need the southern energy to stop trending back sw
tennessee storm
Member
this run here may end up bit more amped up we see
snowlover91
Member
GFS looks about the same with the surface low, maybe a hair west but pretty much the same as the 6z run.
Yeh looks like the tilt of the precip axis tilted, that's about it.
Fountainguy97
Member
well we got it this close. but looks like our "significant" trend has slowed down or stopped here at 12z. so close. yet so far.
what is the site that has the fv3 earlier than tidbits?
https://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-area.php#
It says GFS, but that is the test model stuff at the official NWS model site.
you would think after all these years, they would improve their modeling navigation.
snowlover91
Member
FV3 has light qpf inland again.
heavier precip looks like it shifted a bit east though on the fv3 vs 06z run.
Fountainguy97
Member
gfs and fv3 both held/nudged east a tiny tiny bit. End of trend or just a pause? UK and EURO will likely tell us all we need to know.
We need inches, and we may only have enough time left for millimeters.
Fountainguy97
Member
I couldn't have said it better myself. Trends at 5H this cycle were VERY tiny. Like extremely small. Unless models are just completely wrong then there really isn't much time (if any) left for anything substantial.
If UK and EURO are slightly worse as well then its very likely over.
We are only 48-60 hrs out. Not 120hrs. Models wont be jumping around a ton anymore. We needed the NW trend to tick tick tick until game time.
I guess the rates are not heavy enough to allow the dynamic cooling to work as it's showing rain. It will be a real shame if this thing is a miss.
snowlover91
Member
For me one set of model runs isn't a trend or game over. A trend for me is 2-3 runs that demonstrate a consistent shift one direction across all model suites. The GFS and FV3 were pretty much the same with a slightly different 5H look as the wave interaction occurred. CMC was west and better as was the NAM/RGEM. So right now the 12z runs are a mix. The UK/Euro will be helpful and trends tonight too. Soon we will be in range of other models too like the RAP and HRRR to watch for 5H trends. Tiny shifts in a quicker or slower phase by a few hours is really the difference here.
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Fountainguy97
Member
Yeah there is no substantial precip inland at all. Infact, the qpf chart is completely blank. Just .01 qpf on OBX
Going out on a long limb here and guessing the Ukie didn't help us?
Yeah no news is usually NOT good news...
Unfortunately I think this is a long shot for precip unless you live in the Outer Banks, which will probably get rain if any precip at all.