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Wintry 1/26-1/28 Winter Storm Potential

Robert West said:
I am trying not to, but I really feel myself getting sucked back in to this. It's something I've really tried not to do this Winter. Would be awesome to have a last second 2000 like storm. Of course, I wouldn't expect that much but still. Props to everyone in this thread that's kept hope and sniffed this thing back out, even if it does amount to nothing, it certainly did trend NW.
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Don't! Wait until you see one model actually showing hefty precipitation back to the 95 corridor. That's when it's safe to get sucked in. Right now, it's like looking at distant water in the desert, which is better than yesterday where there was just distant desert in the desert. :)
 
snowlover91 said:
To me it looks like a much better cluster off the NC coast with a few bombs closer to the coast as well. The 00z run has the members weaker and more strung out so it would seem to be a better trend! I wouldn't look at the EPS as a leader in this either since it hasn't been handling this well at all. The FV3 has been leading the way with the trends and the RGEM actually looks quite interesting too. Let's see what the 12z runs show!
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Yeah I see your point and like that look.... What I love about the FV3 is how expansive the precip shield is to the NW of the actual slp center, if that verifies and it only shifts 75-100 miles west we are almost golden (provided temps work)
 
Rain Cold said:
Don't! Wait until you see one model actually showing hefty precipitation back to the 95 corridor. That's when it's safe to get sucked in. Right now, it's like looking at distant water in the desert, which is better than yesterday where there was just distant desert in the desert. :)
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Except everything around here is muddy and wet ;) On a serious note though, the 12z NAM coming in is looking fantastic so far. This run could be a big shift... let's see how fast the northern energy dives down.
 
Something else I like looking at are these maps to see how much moisture a system has to work with, here is the GFS 6z run. Notice some of the wind barbs offshore that are showing SE winds? We want to see a bit more of that to push the moisture inland further but a good trend.
1548425263796.png
Here is 12z yesterday.
1548425282778.png
 
This is a MUCH improved NAM run through 36, in fact I would say it made a big enough shift that it has more interaction at hour 36 than the 6z FV3 showed. It will be interesting to see how the surface responds.
 
Through 45 this is much improved compared with previous runs. Someone with more experience correct me if I'm wrong, but if we do end up seeing more phasing that may also slow the storm down a little right?
1548425967137.png
 
snowlover91 said:
Through 45 this is much improved compared with previous runs. Someone with more experience correct me if I'm wrong, but if we do end up seeing more phasing that may also slow the storm down a little right?
View attachment 13195
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It would. The degree of phasing and the strength of the shortwaves matter. But usually, there is a period of time where the motion slows as intensification occurs, if it is occurring rapidly.

Ideally, in your image above, the longwave trough would be going neutral now. I like the trend of better interaction, but it would be ideal to see that northern wave lagging back, about the same distance that the southern wave is out ahead right now. My guess is this map will produce a surface low still well off the coast but better than the last run. Nice to see better interaction, though.
 
Rain Cold said:
It would. The degree of phasing and the strength of the shortwaves matter. But usually, there is a period of time where the motion slows as intensification occurs, if it is occurring rapidly.

Ideally, in your image above, the longwave trough would be going neutral now. I like the trend of better interaction, but it would be ideal to see that northern wave lagging back, about the same distance that the southern wave is out ahead right now. My guess is this map will produce a surface low still well off the coast but better than the last run. Nice to see better interaction, though.
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Thanks, that could be why the EPS members posted earlier showed a slower track, they must be getting the southern wave out quicker and then phasing the northern stream in and slowing it down. It's good to see the NAM continuing the trend, hopefully the globals will follow suit.
 
Rain Cold said:
It would. The degree of phasing and the strength of the shortwaves matter. But usually, there is a period of time where the motion slows as intensification occurs, if it is occurring rapidly.

Ideally, in your image above, the longwave trough would be going neutral now. I like the trend of better interaction, but it would be ideal to see that northern wave lagging back, about the same distance that the southern wave is out ahead right now. My guess is this map will produce a surface low still well off the coast but better than the last run. Nice to see better interaction, though.
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yeah seems like the nam is trending with the models but one run cycle behind. so here at 12z it is showing what many showed back ay 06z. Good start to 12z runs.
 
Here is the 12km NAM 3 run trend. Notice our southern wave is shifting north and the northern is interacting with it better. Also notice everything has slowed down considerably.
namconus_z500_vort_us_fh54_trend.gif
 
snowlover91 said:
Thanks, that could be why the EPS members posted earlier showed a slower track, they must be getting the southern wave out quicker and then phasing the northern stream in and slowing it down. It's good to see the NAM continuing the trend, hopefully the globals will follow suit.
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Possibly. It could be that those members just track the waves along more slowly. Above my pay grade! :)
 
snowlover91 said:
Here is the 12km NAM 3 run trend. Notice our southern wave is shifting north and the northern is interacting with it better. Also notice everything has slowed down considerably.
View attachment 13197
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The other thing to note, and you can kind of see it here, more interaction of the northern stream with the southern stream is likely the reason that the southern wave is coming north. It's feeling the "tug" of the northern wave. A little more tug to pull it out of the depths of Davy Jones Locker is still needed, but it's trending in the right direction. All good for now.
 
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