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Wintry 1/26-1/28 Winter Storm Potential
- Thread starter deltadog03
- Start date
Yeah...getting close to surrendering. I'll give it till I wake up in the morning, but with all the players on the field now and supposedly being well-sampled, it's hard to imagine a lot more big jumps. If I was on the immediate coast or just inland, I'd keep a weather eye out, though.I think it ticked ever so slightly east.... might be time to toss in the towel
If it was right no top of us and we were in the bullseye, some way some how it would make that NW jump and turn us over to rain...... but when you really need it. Well poop Lol
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Singing the same tune for the last 3-4 days but it's definitely too early to be saying this is over especially because a couple operational models didn't show massive NW trends on one model cycle lol, the GEFS ticked west vs 6z btw and actually has a little precip inland of the coast.
Fountainguy97
Member
We did get a substantial NW trend I guess. We went from a WAY OTS solution to precip scraping the coast. But it’s out of gas I believe. Euro will be another nail in the coffin here in a minute most likely.
Ok.... you convinced me, putting towel back in the drawer and not allowing the fat lady on stage yet. Thanks Webb
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
No....
Just because the models on one cycle didn't trend NW a crapload doesn't mean a) the next models on this cycle will be the final nail in the coffin or b) it's run out of gas, the last piece is interesting (& fwiw) because I've noticed the big run-run changes the past few days have really occurred on the 0z suites esp for the EPS...
I agree with you; I didn't look at the ensembles. My feeling is that we can afford one, maybe two, cycles where we don't get much change. But I think we'll need to see the 18zs- the 12zs tomorrow pick the trend back up, if we're ultimately going to end up in a good spot. Otherwise, the magnitude of the change over the last 24 hours will be too great to overcome. That's just my feeling on it.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Ensembles people... A 100-150 mile NW shift in the precipitation shield up to game time isn't asking a ton out of the GEFS which is still trending NW despite the operational run hiccup (arguably the operational was probably NW of the ensemble envelope on the previous run).
Steady as she goes.
Steady as she goes.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
In cases like this where models tend to poorly resolve the extent and intensity of the precipitation shield on the NW side of coastal cyclones, we still can squeeze out another 25-50 miles right at the zero hour and that happens more frequently than u think, it's just that we're usually on the other side of the distribution hoping we don't end up too far into the warm sector.
Like I side yesterday, metwannabe and the rest of the I-95 corridor are going be sitting pretty if we get 3-4 more cycles like last night.
Agree. How many times have we been in the bullseye 3 days out (heck even 24-36hrs out) and still seen major swings? Precip sitting on the coast on nearly all models and we still have a lot of time to go, especially because minute changes will mean a world of difference.
Climo does tell us that most storms actually verify NW of forecast, more times then not, so we really only need to be close....
And looks like the Euro might be having a little more NS interaction early on
yep, look at ocala, fl. yesterday gfs had them getting a trace of precip and today they are under .5" qpf. not trying to be too much of a weenie but i think much of sc/nc are in the game here.
Thanks. My guess is that if we do get a bit better phasing of the norther and southern waves just a bit sooner, the western extent of the precip shield would probably jump back substantially as opposed to gradually move. Would you agree with that?
Southern energy still lagging too far behind
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The discontinuous large westward jumps in the edge of the precip shield are certainly possible and have occurred in various runs of the EPS like the 0z run last night that shifted NW nearly 200 miles in one cycle lol. As I said yesterday, I think the US-1 & I-95 corridors and points east have the best shot to get something out of this but in such a scenario where say the precip shield doesn't make it to areas like GSO, it's going to be a narrow corridor that could score because not only do u have to be far enough to the NW back in the colder air but you also have to be far enough to the SE to reap the benefits of dynamical cooling and see enough heavy, persistent precip to get a nice burst of wet snow. The NW shift in the models the last few days isn't making this forecast any easier.
Personally, if you had a gun to my head and I had to tell you where I'd want to be in this storm, it's probably somewhere near the I-95 corridor.
man, so close.
packfan98
Moderator
Tucked in pretty close:
snowlover91
Member
Anyone have Euro maps? It looks a bit better at 72 and slower than other models, possibly better stream interaction.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Even if we had a look like that just 36-48 hours out from verification I still wouldn't give up on this storm if I was in the coastal plain.