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Wintry 1/26-1/28 Winter Storm Potential

Not saying this is going to be a repeat of the 2000 Carolina Crusher, but I was trying to recall the forecast with that storm. Was the precip forecasted to stay to our south and miss us?
 
mrdaddyman said:
Can you explain what these streamlines mean for the possible winter storm? Does this have to do with the track of the storm, precipitation intensity, or something else?
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In a nutshell, where the streamlines are running tightly together and then diverge is where you get lift in the upper levels. That causes rising motion throughout the column. Good for storm development, clouds, and precipitation. The stronger the jets, working in tandem, the stronger/more dynamic the storm. You can see a couple distinct jet maxes in the image above.

I'm sure someone else can maybe explain that a bit better, but that's at least a decent overview.
 
Fountainguy97 said:
NAM trend. Notice big jump NW here at the 12z today.

View attachment 13199
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Also notice the 540 line backing up inland too. Along with the further West track comes the warm nose also. Hopefully the dynamic cooling would be able to do it's thing here. It's always such a fine line to walk in the Eastern Piedmont.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Not saying this is going to be a repeat of the 2000 Carolina Crusher, but I was trying to recall the forecast with that storm. Was the precip forecasted to stay to our south and miss us?
Click to expand...
The guidance was much less capable back then. Models showed the storm phasing and strengthening too late and too far out to sea. What the models failed to recognize was that the air was really cold deep into the southeast, and an upper wave developed an area of intense thunderstorm activity developed and raced along the Gulf coast. This cluster of convection added an extra burst of upper level energy at just the right time which essentially accelerated and intensified the storm development much closer to the coast. (This is why I made the joke about wanting to see intense thunderstorm activity in the SE, the other day.) The models failed to recognize that element until the last second. I doubt we'd see that sort of "miss" by the models today. Plus, the same environmental conditions do not exist. But that doesn't mean the models can't still miss the intricate interaction of waves in the two streams, which, at this time, are well within reach of creating a much bigger deal. It will be more of a gradual evolution (like we're seeing), rather than a 12 hour heads-up, most likely.
 
mrdaddyman said:
Also notice the 540 line backing up inland too. Along with the further West track comes the warm nose also. Hopefully the dynamic cooling would be able to do it's thing here. It's always such a fine line to walk in the Eastern Piedmont.
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yeah with a dynamic system like this though we wont have to worry much unless the low is just offshore.

Here you can see what just light precip falling does to the temps on the coast. Under legit precip the upper air will be plenty cold. Surface will probably be 32-34 for most of event which is what the fv3 run that was a big storm showed.

Luckily a track like this wont have a "warm nose." The upper atmosphere will be cold. The issue is just the track. too close to the low and its rain. Itll be a rain/snow line and a very sharp one.

temps.png
 
The 3km NAM is a bit higher resolution and shows the quicker interaction and slower trend a bit better on this loop.
nam3km_z500_vort_us_fh45_trend.gif
 
Webberweather53 said:
Hopefully people are paying attention to this, we're getting closer & closer to producing a winter storm around here late Sunday & Monday.
Just watch the 200 hPa evolution on the GFS. Uh oh.

Mods feel free to move this to the other thread.
View attachment 13174
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uh oh ... dual jet structure ... oh boy☺
 
mrdaddyman said:
Also notice the 540 line backing up inland too. Along with the further West track comes the warm nose also. Hopefully the dynamic cooling would be able to do it's thing here. It's always such a fine line to walk in the Eastern Piedmont.
Click to expand...
Yep, Fountain said it, but the column will be quite cold, until you get to the surface. Heavier precip should do the trick.
 
snowlover91 said:
To illustrate how these small interactions significantly affect the surface... take a look at the NAM 3 run trend. Impressive shifts.
View attachment 13200
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Where we are heading is obvious, hard not to start feeling optimistic. For central NC folks of course :)

Something to keep in mind, 48 hrs is the earliest slp track will be nailed down until then changes will happen. Trends will continue.
 
Let's see how the globals trend... GFS will be off around 10:30 that will be our first good look to see if they are continuing the theme or not.
 
Something else that could favor this, if it trends slower with more phasing it could come in at night versus late evening/afternoon. That would be ideal for it to move in then to help the BL cool off quicker before the precip moves in (assuming it keeps trending better). This is lining up to POSSIBLY be a surprise storm if the trends continue.
 
It's close, but we still need a turnover and a score to tie it up. Trends can move in either direction. So far, things have been good, but we still need everything to go our way.
 
Fwiw the ICON is another improvement. The southern energy is pulled north and east a little more this run and northern energy is west a hair.
1548428859139.png
 
the difference a day of model runs can make. 6z gfs yesterday vs 6z today. keep seeing this and we are in business.
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_16.png


gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_12.png
 
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