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Wintry 1/26-1/28 Winter Storm Potential

CyclonicFury said:
Going to need for it to be colder than what the Euro is showing.
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There's probably a considerable amount of solar insolation that's leading to temps like that in the middle of the day, 6 hours on either side of this temps are considerably cooler & in the upper 30s-near 40F without any precipitation or enhanced CAA (as noted below).

Dynamic cooling actually won't be acting alone in this case to drive local temperature changes, if this storm actually comes far enough NW to threaten east-central NC, the storm will likely end up being even more intense which argues for not only dynamical cooling but increased cold air advection that would at the very least keep temps from getting anywhere close to that warm.

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The little stripe of non-zero snow accum on this EPS run from Raleigh & points NEward is associated w/ the coastal low. Northern part of the I-95 corridor in NC would be one of the best spots to be in for this event if it can continue trending in our favor.

Reel it in @metwannabe !

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Webberweather53 said:
Virtually no change on this EPS run but boy this is real close to being a big deal for the I-95 corridor.

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Thanks for posting this... so we are looking at a 75 mile shift inland with the precip and areas near the 95 corridor, especially just east of it, would be seeing some solid qpf amounts. I've seen a 75 mile shift inland inside 36 hours from go time so we have plenty of time to see further improvements, especially with a setup as close as this one is.
 
Sitting here on I-95 corridor in Florence, I've seen plenty of times where these systems over perform. This is not over by a long shot.

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Rain Cold said:
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I'm actually still amazed even w/ <0.1" of precipitation that there's non-zero snow mean on this EPS run which goes to show how favorable the surface may be in this case to support snow in that it may not take as much dynamical cooling to get the column to produce wet snow as we currently suspect it to. Certainly good news for now anyways
 
Webberweather53 said:
I'm actually still amazed even w/ <0.1" of precipitation that there's non-zero snow mean on this EPS run which goes to show how favorable the surface may be in this case to support snow in that it may not take as much dynamical cooling to get the column to produce wet snow as we currently suspect it to. Certainly good news for now anyways
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I meant to post that in the other thread. Ug. Anyway, yes, it illustrates that point nicely about temps.
 
Bottom line with this storm is even if it's a near miss for folks in the coastal plain and eastern piedmont we still will have to contend with the arctic front and rain changing to snow literally the very next day.
 
snowlover91 said:
NAM 4 run trend. Notice our southern energy getting pulled north more due to quicker stream interaction and the northern energy is shifting west each run.
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Honestly, this is getting extremely close to something potentially bombing off the coast and quickly too. not the same setup but Dec 1989 does come to mind WRT to forecast catchup. in fact, forecast amounts were constantly upped as the storm unfolded and was ongoing.

definitely not something to ignore just yet for Coastal Plain regions and points a little inland at this time.
 
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