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Wintry 1/26-1/28 Winter Storm Potential
- Thread starter deltadog03
- Start date
Yeah...getting close to surrendering. I'll give it till I wake up in the morning, but with all the players on the field now and supposedly being well-sampled, it's hard to imagine a lot more big jumps. If I was on the immediate coast or just inland, I'd keep a weather eye out, though.I think it ticked ever so slightly east.... might be time to toss in the towel
If it was right no top of us and we were in the bullseye, some way some how it would make that NW jump and turn us over to rain...... but when you really need it. Well poop Lol
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Singing the same tune for the last 3-4 days but it's definitely too early to be saying this is over especially because a couple operational models didn't show massive NW trends on one model cycle lol, the GEFS ticked west vs 6z btw and actually has a little precip inland of the coast.
Fountainguy97
Member
We did get a substantial NW trend I guess. We went from a WAY OTS solution to precip scraping the coast. But it’s out of gas I believe. Euro will be another nail in the coffin here in a minute most likely.
Ok.... you convinced me, putting towel back in the drawer and not allowing the fat lady on stage yet. Thanks Webb
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
No....
Just because the models on one cycle didn't trend NW a crapload doesn't mean a) the next models on this cycle will be the final nail in the coffin or b) it's run out of gas, the last piece is interesting (& fwiw) because I've noticed the big run-run changes the past few days have really occurred on the 0z suites esp for the EPS...
I agree with you; I didn't look at the ensembles. My feeling is that we can afford one, maybe two, cycles where we don't get much change. But I think we'll need to see the 18zs- the 12zs tomorrow pick the trend back up, if we're ultimately going to end up in a good spot. Otherwise, the magnitude of the change over the last 24 hours will be too great to overcome. That's just my feeling on it.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Ensembles people... A 100-150 mile NW shift in the precipitation shield up to game time isn't asking a ton out of the GEFS which is still trending NW despite the operational run hiccup (arguably the operational was probably NW of the ensemble envelope on the previous run).
Steady as she goes.
Steady as she goes.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
In cases like this where models tend to poorly resolve the extent and intensity of the precipitation shield on the NW side of coastal cyclones, we still can squeeze out another 25-50 miles right at the zero hour and that happens more frequently than u think, it's just that we're usually on the other side of the distribution hoping we don't end up too far into the warm sector.
Like I side yesterday, metwannabe and the rest of the I-95 corridor are going be sitting pretty if we get 3-4 more cycles like last night.
Agree. How many times have we been in the bullseye 3 days out (heck even 24-36hrs out) and still seen major swings? Precip sitting on the coast on nearly all models and we still have a lot of time to go, especially because minute changes will mean a world of difference.
Climo does tell us that most storms actually verify NW of forecast, more times then not, so we really only need to be close....
And looks like the Euro might be having a little more NS interaction early on
yep, look at ocala, fl. yesterday gfs had them getting a trace of precip and today they are under .5" qpf. not trying to be too much of a weenie but i think much of sc/nc are in the game here.
Thanks. My guess is that if we do get a bit better phasing of the norther and southern waves just a bit sooner, the western extent of the precip shield would probably jump back substantially as opposed to gradually move. Would you agree with that?
Southern energy still lagging too far behind
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The discontinuous large westward jumps in the edge of the precip shield are certainly possible and have occurred in various runs of the EPS like the 0z run last night that shifted NW nearly 200 miles in one cycle lol. As I said yesterday, I think the US-1 & I-95 corridors and points east have the best shot to get something out of this but in such a scenario where say the precip shield doesn't make it to areas like GSO, it's going to be a narrow corridor that could score because not only do u have to be far enough to the NW back in the colder air but you also have to be far enough to the SE to reap the benefits of dynamical cooling and see enough heavy, persistent precip to get a nice burst of wet snow. The NW shift in the models the last few days isn't making this forecast any easier.
Personally, if you had a gun to my head and I had to tell you where I'd want to be in this storm, it's probably somewhere near the I-95 corridor.
man, so close.
packfan98
Moderator
Tucked in pretty close:
snowlover91
Member
Anyone have Euro maps? It looks a bit better at 72 and slower than other models, possibly better stream interaction.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Even if we had a look like that just 36-48 hours out from verification I still wouldn't give up on this storm if I was in the coastal plain.
Directly overhead!
Will be interesting to have a look at the distribution of the EPS member lows and compare to the last run.
packfan98
Moderator
Much stronger and closer to the coast than 0z.
If snow does fall, it will a nice wet snow, probably 7:1 ratios or something.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Amazingly, you can even see how it's near freezing already at 850 hPa without any precipitation all the way back into the midlands of SC, a little bit of dynamic cooling is all it would take.
If it's too slow, could daytime heating on Monday afternoon prevent this from being a snow event even if it did shift northwest enough to the point where the Coastal Plain got a sizable amount of QPF? It looks like Monday will have a high in the mid-50s if the storm takes its current modeled track.
.2 and .3 qpf making it to the coast of NC now (all along the coast) which is much improved....
packfan98
Moderator
Looks like it may hit Boston this run...
Fountainguy97
Member
All models agree nicely on a safe OTS track 200-300 miles too far away.
Nice consensus on 12z to wrap this one up.
Nice consensus on 12z to wrap this one up.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The best track for a big RDU snow is just offshore Hatteras by about 50 miles or so, we're too far east by 100-125 miles if that atm going off the Euro and even less if you're in the coastal plain. I wouldn't call that a nice, safe OTS track
Fountainguy97
Member
True. EPS will be interesting. If we have more than 2 members showing a large snow storm there is still a leg to stand on.
That being said the euro is a nice shift but it really does fall in line with other models at 12z. It is on the western edge of guidance.
BUT also the euro is WAY WAY slower with the system than gfs family. Maybe that’s a sign that euro is a bigger trend than the surface maps show??
Here is the time difference. It’s big.
So while the euro run does line up with track of other models it’s way slower. Must be more interaction between the waves?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
12z Euro definitely still going in the right direction, the edge of the precip came a little further inland, but notice how the heavier precipitation offshore became considerably more intense and jumped way NW this run. A few tweaks like this past run and 1" totals would come knocking for coastal sections of NC.
Onto the 12z EPS
Onto the 12z EPS
Reel it in guys..... I've got to go fire someone so probably won't see me the rest of today. If I'm not back by tonight send out the search team and yest this is banter but seriously this is also one part of my job I hate.
snowlover91
Member
With complex scenarios of northern/southern energy interacting and the timing being so critical... a few hours difference and 100 miles can be all it takes to shift things significantly inland. The 12z EPS members will be interesting to see. Here's a look at the past 3 GEFS runs, a solid NW shift. Raleigh and points east still have a shot if things continue to trend favorably.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
There haven't been virtually any members up to this point that showed a sizable snowstorm but this setup still "had a leg to stand on" because the pattern was extremely fickle and a few minor tweaks away from a big storm. Looking at the number of members that produce "x" solution is nice but you have to understand they're almost always underdispersive (i.e. inter-member spread is way too small). Even the 50 member EPS is not invincible from this, the GEFS is just a herd of sheep.
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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I wish you could fire SEridge
Fountainguy97
Member
Yeah I guess I was just using the “count of snowstorms” as a gauge to if the EPS support went up or not.
Honestly though, for Raleigh and east this could very well be the best synoptic setup we get for a large snowstorm this year.
All the players are here for sure. And the envelope of possible outcomes still includes a snowstorm. We haven’t really narrowed down much the last few days on that front.
Really it’s likely that the current modeling is the extreme eastern side of possible outcomes. If you notice, there are very very few ensemble members east of the current OP models. Vast majority are in line of west of them.
Euro actually looks very good at 5H. Better than gfs family for sure
snowlover91
Member
For those with access to the nice Euro 5h maps, would you be able to post maybe a few of them showing how the interaction between the northern/southern streams look in the 48-66 hour range? I'm curious to see what the differences are that it's showing.
Going to need for it to be colder than what the Euro is showing.
Only 30 degrees of dynamic cooling to ask for. No biggie!
snowlover91
Member
Waiting for RGEM precip maps to come out but the ensembles have a few showing a strong LP near the coast.
