Wintry 1/26-1/28 Winter Storm Potential

[Fountainguy97]

This is it

 

[Webberweather53]

Don’t get Nam’d. Y’all know it does this at least once during the lead-up to every event or non-event.

In this case however the changes that occurred on the NAM happened early on in the run when the model is actually reliable and propagated forward in time, only reinforcing long-term trends we've seen in other guidance lately.

 

[Fountainguy97]

Oh my goodness it’s coming

 

[Myfrotho704_]

With this look precip should spread towards FAY

 

[Fountainguy97]

In this case however the changes that occurred on the NAM happened early on in the run when the model is actually reliable and propagated forward in time, only reinforcing long-term trends we've seen in other guidance lately.

This is 24 hr nam not 84

 

[Stormsfury]

Oh my goodness it’s coming

View attachment 13291

very reminiscent of January 2002

 

[Fountainguy97]

 

[RollTide18]

I think you guys will love this run

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Look at how much this has changed !!! Continues to slow down aswell

 

[DopplerWx]

uh...oh my.

 

[mrdaddyman]

Look at how much this has changed !!! Continues to slow down aswellView attachment 13293

Trying to learn here. Does this mean that the northern stream energy is "grabbing" the southern stream energy which will cause it to slow down and intensify?

 

[Webberweather53]

Not surprisingly, the other board is about as dead as doornail on this system, hopefully someone over there wakes up & smells the roses because it's pretty apparent we're headed in the direction of an actual storm

 

[snowlover91]

Small 5H changes lead to these massive changes at the surface...

 

[Fountainguy97]

Trying to learn here. Does this mean that the northern stream energy is "grabbing" the southern stream energy which will cause it to slow down and intensify?

Pretty much you are correct. THose two pieces “phase” or merge into each other. As they do that will intensify the system and begin to pull it northward. We need them to phase then go neutral/nehative tilt to really get this thing close to the coast.

 

[Tarheel1]

Look at how much this has changed !!! Continues to slow down aswellView attachment 13293

To my untrained eye, looks like it’s spinning in the gulf!? Atleast neutral tilt!?

 

[Webberweather53]

Small 5H changes lead to these massive changes at the surface...
View attachment 13294

Also nice to see the northern stream wave over the upper midwest backing off a little and slowing down as time progress which should give a little more room for our wave to breathe & keep coming NW.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Crazy thing is to is that we still have time, I bet the reason for this large shift was sampling

 

[Webberweather53]

Crazy thing is to is that we still have time, I bet the reason for this large shift was sampling

Yeah the shifts really began in earnest late yesterday and especially after the 0z suite last night when actual RAOB data on this s/w was fed into the models

 

[snowlover91]

7H RH map shows as this starts tilting its pushing moisture inland... much more than previous run.

 

[Tarheel1]

Look at how much this has changed !!! Continues to slow down aswellView attachment 13293

Ridge looks slightly steeper out West!? I don’t have a dog in the fight, but Brick May need some new pants!

 

[snowlover91]

BOOM here we go. WOW.

 

[Arcc]

Small 5H changes lead to these massive changes at the surface...
View attachment 13294

Wow, if it keeps trending that fast we may get something in AL.

All kidding aside, I hope it nails yall. Once again proves all is right in the weather world.