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Wintry 1/26-1/28 Winter Storm Potential

icon still offshore with precip but looks a bit slower?
icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_19.png
 
Even tho globals are important, short range models will do better now since that possible phase is under 60 hours
 
ICON looks a little slower and better with the interaction but it doesn't really reflect at the surface. The RGEM has a different look as well with how it handles the energy interaction. Models are going to struggle to figure this out.
 
Its happened before. This is the ETA which is todays NAM. I want give away what time in history this happened.

1548452223889.png
 
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precip is closer at 57 than 12z but not nearly as good as the nam. just offshore.
 
DopplerWx said:
precip is closer at 57 than 12z but not nearly as good as the nam. just offshore.
Click to expand...

At this stage the globals begin to have a bit less usefulness and the meso models will be more helpful in trying to figure out how this energy will interact. I like the NAM/RGEM blend... having said that the GFS and ICON both did shift to an earlier interaction and pulled the southern wave north some.
 
Gfs anything tick better. Right on the cusp of a bigger move but not quite there. There is definitely a bit of concern that the nam is bein the nam.

But gfs did continue the trend
 
Need that Atlantic ridge to do its thing. It usually haunts us inside 60 hours and now it can really help.

592A2D54-BDF7-410F-96AD-BAF28D4537DC.gif
 
Given the GFS' canonical biases wrt handling precipitation on the NW side of coastal cyclones (which is even worse than other NWP models) this run is clearly suggesting a threat for wintry precipitation in the coastal plain of NC and possibly SC. Notice how much slower the wave is now too, obvious nod to the more amped/NW solutions.

This is almost game on for the I-95 & US-1 corridors
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_fh54_trend.gif
 
To illustrate the differences in how the models handle the energy interaction, here is a comparison of the 18z GFS vs the 18z 3km NAM (which I prefer for these complex setups). Keep in mind we are less than 3 days out and seeing significant differences in how they handle the energy.

1548453004627.png

3km NAM
1548453033524.png
 
Another nice catch by @Jon

To everyone who thinks &/or thought our models are/were good enough several years removed from the Dec 2010 event where we don't get last minute surprises inside day 3-4 like this, this system clearly shows they can still happen and we have a lot of work left to do.

 
Mike Maze did mention we could see some high thin whispy cirrus clouds from this, and the outer banks could experience some shower activity. Still clinging on to anything I can.
 
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