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Wintry 1/26-1/28 Winter Storm Potential

I might be to excited, but I think even areas as far west as Charlotte needs to watch this
 
Dynamical cooling taking affect judging by temps in the sheild of precip
 
I need to go to Cape Hatteras, so I can watch more cold rain!?
When is this storm potential? Monday?? Definitely positive trends today for the Eastern Carolinas!
 
good lord. what a shift. it is 72hr nam at the point of it bombing offshore but i would love to see the 18z suite follow suit.
 
Keep in mind our northern energy is just now forming. It’s not even really much of a solid piece yet. But by 06z tonight it will be organizing. Into the piece of energy most models have tracking into the US.

This means the door is still open to change tonight as our pieces are still in development stage.
 
I thought this system was over and done with,but maybe not?! If NAM and other models continue have a Quicker phase between the Northern Stream and the Southern Stream,this could maybe be interesting even for Columbia. I still expecting nothing for me area,but maybe Florence SC, Lubmberton NC to Greenville could be getting a snow event?
 
DopplerWx said:
good lord. what a shift. it is 72hr nam at the point of it bombing offshore but i would love to see the 18z suite follow suit.
Click to expand...

The early stream interaction happens hours 18-36 which is in the range where the NAM should be preferred over globals IMO. It shifted our northern energy west enough to pull the southern energy north and give us a much improved look. We still have room for improvement as it's still a bit slow to go neutral to negative.
 
3k nam at 60, juiced up.
nam3km_ref_frzn_seus_60.png
 
Earlier I thought this would be at best a few rain showers for the Outer Banks, but then I realized we're still nearly three days out, and radiational cooling will likely help offset the initially warm surface temperatures. We might only be about a 100 mile west shift away from a significant winter storm for the Coastal Plain of North Carolina. Still think significant QPF is a long shot for RDU and points west though.
 
All that needs to happen to bring the qpf further inland is a bit quicker/cleaner phase of the northern and southern streams so that this will go neutral to negative tilt faster. The system will also slow down a lot when this happens. The 3km has this going neutral by hour 60; ideally those inland want it going negative by this point if not a little sooner. It won't take much to get that change either as it only needs a slightly better/faster phase to get there...
1548450107755.png
 
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