Wintry 1/26-1/28 Winter Storm Potential

[Fountainguy97]

Help me out Fountain. To me it looks like there is less buckle in the jet and more straight line energy on the second run, wouldn't that make it less appealing for us? I'm a novice so please excuse my ignorance.

You are correct in that less of a buckle isn’t good BUT in this frame the southern and northern are fully interacting. Down the stream a few hrs the fv3 phases more and looks much like 12km nam did at 5H.

Basically quicker phase means it looks good for us just a frame later

 

[SteveVa]

Wakefield office is still sleeping on this potential storm. No mention of it in their FD and P&C forecast is calling for a high of 51 and mostly sunny skies on Monday. @Webberweather53 sorry for the MBY question, but you seem the most knowledgeable--is far SE VA still in the game?

 

[Webberweather53]

Wakefield office is still sleeping on this potential storm. No mention of it in their FD and P&C forecast is calling for a high of 51 and mostly sunny skies on Monday. @Webberweather53 sorry for the MBY question, but you seem the most knowledgeable--is far SE VA still in the game?

That doesn't surprise me coming from Wakefield. Absolutely, pretty much everyone near & east of US HWY 1/I-95 in NC/VA and perhaps even northeastern SC has a shot.

 

[Avalanche]

You are correct in that less of a buckle isn’t good BUT in this frame the southern and northern are fully interacting. Down the stream a few hrs the fv3 phases more and looks much like 12km nam did at 5H.

Basically quicker phase means it looks good for us just a frame later

Thanks for the explanation. Here's to the next few frames!!!!

 

[Webberweather53]

Even if you're just casually observing this storm from afar, it's worth watching the evolution of our coastal low because it will eventually phase with the huge lobe of the polar vortex entering into the northern US in the medium range

 

[Kylo]

Painful. Nice vortex in SE Canada but with the kicker storm coming that gives AL/GA/TN there due it's just tough to get it closer.

 

[snowlover91]

Painful. Nice vortex in SE Canada but with the kicker storm coming that gives AL/GA/TN there due it's just tough to get it closer.

View attachment 13348

Is that an improvement over the 12z run? How does the 18z eps look?

 

[Kylo]

Is that an improvement over the 12z run? How does the 18z eps look?

A little better. 18z EPS comes out in 30-45 mins.

 

[BHS1975]

Nice temps

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[NCCWOP9077]

A little better. 18z EPS comes out in 30-45 mins.

Looks like there's two camps of members on the 18z EPS. One further SW and another group further east.

 

[Fountainguy97]

00z nam again is SW with the northern piece! Big run??

 

[deltadog03]

I think this has more room to be further west and NW

 

[Disco_Lemonade]

00z nam again is SW with the northern piece! Big run??

View attachment 13356

Was just thinking the same thing, let's watch.

 

[Fountainguy97]

 

[Cary_Snow95]

Gonna be a small step back

 

[RVD]

Thru 30, the 00z NAM looks slightly worse than the 18z but far better than the 12z.

 

[Fountainguy97]

Yeah not gonna cut it this run...

 

[Stormlover]

Bams model showing a little light snow late tonight into north ala

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Yep, precip shield went back down SE....

 

[Fountainguy97]

Yeah more positive tilt for sure this run.