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Wintry 1/26-1/28 Winter Storm Potential

Webberweather53 said:
Big shift NW in tonight's EPS by like 100-125 miles in one run. Still a lot of work left to do but boy this is gonna be close if we keep this up. Most mets in eastern NC seem to be sleeping at the wheel on this one, hopefully for their sake this trend doesn't continue.

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Are there anyway that precipitation can even make it to the upstate if it keeps on trending nw
 
Webberweather53 said:
Hopefully people are paying attention to this, we're getting closer & closer to producing a winter storm around here late Sunday & Monday.
Just watch the 200 hPa evolution on the GFS. Uh oh.

Mods feel free to move this to the other thread.
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Moved!

You guys have been doing a great job staying on top of this. It will be awesome to see these trends continue if for no other reason than to see the reactions by local mets and media.
 
I doubt it. I would think the Triangle would be the furthest west that could benefit from these shifts. Just keep watching over the next 24 hours and let's see where it goes.
 
More neutral on the fv3

42eafe4479730b52fa4472c5e74f10a0.gif



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As of 6z, the energy associated with the s/w is officially on land and the northern stream energy is running ashore on Alaska, if we see wild jumps today is the day.
592cecc046644e261e812a768e5b87ae.jpg


I see the good trends wrt the northern stream, but the shortwave is continuing to trend away from what we want. The more west it goes, the slower it gets and the harder it will be to phase with the northern stream. I’d rather it be moving towards TX here.
Last 4 runs of FV3
130c5de2a2f22fddbf18420305657325.gif


Last 4 runs of the 3km Nam
02a3e18dc1feacba0676fdfc1fa5ad35.gif


On the other hand, the northern stream is trending west in concert and stronger as well.
If we can get greater interaction here, due to location of the positively tilted trough, we can get a system for some folks as Webber has been talking about. Also the PV is backing off a bit which I’ve noticed on a loop over the last 10 runs or so. This allows the northern stream to make its mark.
a1d736ee6015a01772f2bf9ce946d64c.gif


I’m just waiting for the model to quit trending in either direction with the energy. Once that happens, I can say I’m out, but it’s still too early to call if you’re paying attention.



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Jon said:
As of 6z, the energy associated with the s/w is officially on land and the northern stream energy is running ashore on Alaska, if we see wild jumps today is the day.
592cecc046644e261e812a768e5b87ae.jpg


I see the good trends wrt the northern stream, but the shortwave is continuing to trend away from what we want. The more west it goes, the slower it gets and the harder it will be to phase with the northern stream. I’d rather it be moving towards TX here.
Last 4 runs of FV3
130c5de2a2f22fddbf18420305657325.gif


Last 4 runs of the 3km Nam
02a3e18dc1feacba0676fdfc1fa5ad35.gif


On the other hand, the northern stream is trending west in concert and stronger as well.
If we can get greater interaction here, due to location of the positively tilted trough, we can get a system for some folks as Webber has been talking about. Also the PV is backing off a bit which I’ve noticed on a loop over the last 10 runs or so. This allows the northern stream to make its mark.
a1d736ee6015a01772f2bf9ce946d64c.gif


I’m just waiting for the model to quit trending in either direction with the energy. Once that happens, I can say I’m out, but it’s still too early to call if you’re paying attention.



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Click to expand...

Yeah our good trend right now is haopebejng with the northern piece. It is able to interact with the southern quicker. But now we really would like to see that southern piece either speed up or come north. Honestly a bit of both would probably happen if it came back our way.

Today is big. Models have really sped up and dove the northern piece over the last 4 runs. We just need a tiny bit of cooperation out of the southern piece.
 
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