snowlover91
Member
How does the eps look overall? Just these two that are solid hits?
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Wintry 1/26-1/28 Winter Storm Potential
- Thread starter deltadog03
- Start date
How does the eps look overall? Just these two that are solid hits?
Fountainguy97
Member
Good catch. This is huge IMO. First support for this type of track since the Monday evening fv3 run.
No. At best , it’s an Outer banks to RAH event
Jon
Member
I think those are also the slowest members. Check that time stamp. This would make sense given the shortwave evolution in the west going more west. Phases late. In that solution it’s likely just rain, maybe a mix somewhere?
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Wow, those are really west. I think the trend has been more positive than negative with the models, and good to see them continuing to come NW. This could be a nice little surprise if we don't run out of time.
Kylo
Member
A couple of scrapers too but majority is a miss
Webb stirring up things in the Twitterverse, you should have tagged a few local mets in your tweet that might have got interesting. Haha
Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
Kylo
Member
6z, 0z and 12z from yesterday
Fountainguy97
Member
While it's a long shot, it just shows the potential is there..... been a long time since we've had a "surprise" storm.
Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
snowlover91
Member
You're not the only one who has
The one time a NW trend might actually do us some good lol.I haven't seen it posted yet but man does the RGEM have some very early stream interaction, not sure how it would play out but I assume it would be even more favorable than what the FV3 showed.
Kylo
Member
6z members vs 0z
Eps has really shifted west with qpf....
That's doable..... I like the looks of a few bombs just off the coast
love seeing the trends continue overnight. how often have we seen big shifts with precip and lp placement within 54-66hrs in the past? i wouldn't throw in the towel on this one for anyone outside of far western nc. just need to see the runs today continue to bring that precip inland. would be awesome to see a mini 2000 redux/bust again to see how the mets would go from sunshine to 2-4" of snow in the forecast within a day or so of the event.
On the other hand, there seems to be a better concentration of slp's too far offshore, so makes me wonder if the trend has stopped.... 12z runs should give clarity
snowlover91
Member
The awesome thing with this setup is it won't take much at all to really shift the qpf field inland. The 6z EPS looks MUCH improved over the 00z run which was already solid. The 12z runs are about to start, NAM has been behind the curve a bit but all we need to see is it trending better. The key models to watch will be the GFS, FV3 and Euro/UK.
snowlover91
Member
To me it looks like a much better cluster off the NC coast with a few bombs closer to the coast as well. The 00z run has the members weaker and more strung out so it would seem to be a better trend! I wouldn't look at the EPS as a leader in this either since it hasn't been handling this well at all. The FV3 has been leading the way with the trends and the RGEM actually looks quite interesting too. Let's see what the 12z runs show!
I am trying not to, but I really feel myself getting sucked back in to this. It's something I've really tried not to do this Winter. Would be awesome to have a last second 2000 like storm. Of course, I wouldn't expect that much but still. Props to everyone in this thread that's kept hope and sniffed this thing back out, even if it does amount to nothing, it certainly did trend NW.
snowlover91
Member
The 6z CMC was also a shift west with the surface low.
