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Wintry 1/26-1/28 Winter Storm Potential

Stormsfury said:
huge difference in thickness schemes in the Carolinas on GEM this run too. 540dm 200 miles further south vs 12 hours ago and a substantial west shift on the offshore low.
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Would this be the idea of more of a phase scenario going on the CMC? Can't see the 500mb vort maps right now.
 
Its beating a dead horse, but man, this one really is starting to remind me of 2000 when all the models busted with precipitation coming inland. different setup, but the idea of it staying offshore.. got a lot of people by surprise.

of course, modeling has gotten much better these days!

eta.model.error.png
 
Shawn said:
Its beating a dead horse, but man, this one really is starting to remind me of 2000 when all the models busted with precipitation coming inland. different setup, but the idea of it staying offshore.. got a lot of people by surprise.

of course, modeling has gotten much better these days!

View attachment 13141
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Would temps even cooperate enough here in central SC?
 
Robert West said:
Would temps even cooperate enough here in central SC?
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Well, looking at 5400dm thicknesses down to the coast, I would say, likely.

Edit, more to it though. 540 line has been used for a while to decide rain/snow .. but its not 100% by any means. Just good to see it very well in place.
 
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Looks like Euro might be a step in the right direction again, vs 12z. At least moisture looks closer vs.
 
Doing a lot of multi tasking.. but it looks slower.. im sure 500mb looks different.. this almost seems like it's keying on a wave on the backend and putting more focus on it vs the faster, lead one. but im not 100% on that.

fsfd.png
 
Either way, as you can see.. this run creams Florida vs being quite anemic per 12z run. So definitely a step in the right direction regardless of how it got there. Here is the previous frame to above. (the next frames, nothing significant as it starts to head out to sea):

flcream.png

Here was the 12z same time:

previous.png
 
Shawn said:
Would this be the idea of more of a phase scenario going on the CMC? Can't see the 500mb vort maps right now.
Click to expand...

the fact the low is closer to the coast vs previous runs is influencing colder air down via north and NE winds...

definitely appears to be more interaction with the northern stream as well... I have been closely watching this for days now... and believe me... track record with lower and middle SC snow events have a tendency to crop up "last minute" historically
 
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