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Wintry 1/26-1/28 Winter Storm Potential

Cary_Snow95 said:
What we need
View attachment 13063
Where we are at
View attachment 13064
Slide the northern energy about 150 miles west like the top image and we have a monster. That run was able to slide that energy down and interact with the southern vort just soon enough to tilt it neutral
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That’s maybe 100 miles if that lol I just don’t think many realize how close we are
 
Webberweather53 said:
Here's the 5 run trend in the GFS everyone is referring to above in case some were wondering. Coastal plain & eastern piedmont of NC are definitely still in the hunt, a few more shifts like this and precip will be knocking on the doorstep of the I-95 corridor.

View attachment 13022
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Come to papa....

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deltadog03 said:
I should totally give up on this one, but it’s my thread so I go down with the ship. Lmao. Notice over AL, GA, SC and NC the height lines are lowering and backing up to the SW. tells me it’s trying to show where this wants to end up but I don’t think it’s gonna make it.
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Well, I would not have given it much of a chance yesterday. However, the model trends are certainly trying to tell us something. If I was in Eastern NC, I would certainly pay attention to this one. Heck, it may end up being a decent event for even more real estate, if the trends continue. One thing I have noticed in this El-Nino season. Everything had trended more amped and farther west come verification time.
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
Tonight's 0z runs honestly make or break us. Any step backwards and it is pretty much over. Another west shift with the northern energy and we're very much in it.
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Agreed, still need to see adjustments NW tonight and then hopefully as sw is better sampled hope for a big jump at 12z tomorrow

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Cary_Snow95 said:
Tonight's 0z runs honestly make or break us. Any step backwards and it is pretty much over. Another west shift with the northern energy and we're very much in it.
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Agreed. 00z will be big. It’s also the first run that will initialize with our energy onshore. Chances of a steady trend will start going down.

Could see a nice little jump one way or the other at 00z
 
Here in far SE VA I'll rather take my chances with a coastal moving into marginally cold airmass than a rain to snow type of deal following a cold front. ORF is sitting on 0.1" this winter, so anything will be appreciated.

Boundary layer temps look iffy east of 95 (as always) and a sprawling HP is nowhere in sight so I guess we'll have to depend on dynamic cooling
 
RGEM more west with the northern kicker.

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Nam at 00z has the same phasing and interaction as the fv3 and gfs did at 18z. It seems to me like it’s been slow to pick up the trend.

It’s been fairly inaccurate past 36 hrs this winter.

But it did tick better at 00z but like I said it’s much like gfs and fv3 at 18z.

If fv3 and gfs stop coming in better tonight its likely done. They seem to be the leaders for this trend with other models a cycle or two behind.
 
Fountainguy97 said:
Nam at 00z has the same phasing and interaction as the fv3 and gfs did at 18z. It seems to me like it’s been slow to pick up the trend.

It’s been fairly inaccurate past 36 hrs this winter.

But it did tick better at 00z but like I said it’s much like gfs and fv3 at 18z.

If fv3 and gfs stop coming in better tonight its likely done. They seem to be the leaders for this trend with other models a cycle or two behind.
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Yeah the Nam had more interaction near the end but it hung up quite a bit of energy wayyyyy too far south again. GFS and FV3 will certainly be telling.
 
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