Wintry 1/26-1/28 Winter Storm Potential

[Fountainguy97]

First post here -- just incredible looking at that map (especially with the PV close to the US/Canadian border) how close we are to a big winter storm for NC

It’s insane how close we are.


Here is the fv3 run that dropped a foot for NC vs the most recent 12z run.


Notice how little changes there are? The only thing shifting is the alignment of our two pieces of energy in the Western US. You can see on the snowstorm run that the southern most piece is further east.

Here is another comparison of the same runs:



That tiny shift east with the southern most portion of energy early on allowed the S/W to progress east faster. This frame right here shows how incredibly sensitive weather patterns are. One run is literally a foot of snow for NC while the other is sunny and 50degrees... that’s pretty insane.


It’s possible that we could see changes. The energy is coming on shore and will break up over the next day. It’s possible but not very likely. But it’s ohhh so close.


Here was that snowstorm run.

 

[BHS1975]

It’s insane how close we are.


Here is the fv3 run that dropped a foot for NC vs the most recent 12z run.

View attachment 12989
Notice how little changes there are? The only thing shifting is the alignment of our two pieces of energy in the Western US. You can see on the snowstorm run that the southern most piece is further east.

Here is another comparison of the same runs:

View attachment 12990

That tiny shift east with the southern most portion of energy early on allowed the S/W to progress east faster. This frame right here shows how incredibly sensitive weather patterns are. One run is literally a foot of snow for NC while the other is sunny and 50degrees... that’s pretty insane.


It’s possible that we could see changes. The energy is coming on shore and will break up over the next day. It’s possible but not very likely. But it’s ohhh so close.


Here was that snowstorm run. View attachment 12991

The Carolina Crusher was supposed to be mainly coastal so these bombs can sneak up on you but probably less likely now.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Fountainguy97]

Ah yes ladies the stage is this way..

 

[snowlover91]

Our southern wave digs all the way into Mexico. If it were a bit north in southern Texas this look MIGHT work but it's too far south still.

 

[Cary_Snow95]

Boy is this close. Much more interaction this run and it tries. Precip field once again further west

 

[snowlover91]

Hmmm.

 

[DopplerWx]

gfs with another slight shift west with the precip shield fwiw. shift between runs since yesterday and the trend is apparent.

 

[Mitch West]

Certainly running out of time, but the icon and the gfs made shifts NW

 

[Cary_Snow95]

 

[RollTide18]

For you Carolina posters, I really don’t think you should give up on this one until the trend stops completely.

 

[snowlover91]

GFS tried really hard, not quite there and qpf is still offshore but it was another step in the right direction. Let's see if the FV3 shifts NW any or if it holds steady.

 

[Webberweather53]

Here's the 5 run trend in the GFS everyone is referring to above in case some were wondering. Coastal plain & eastern piedmont of NC are definitely still in the hunt, a few more shifts like this and precip will be knocking on the doorstep of the I-95 corridor.

 

[Rain Cold]

We need an instant occlusion. Can we get a cluster of intense convection along the Gulf?

 

[Webberweather53]

 

[snowlover91]

FV3 also seems to be a small improvement over the 12z run.

 

[snowlover91]

If we can get the northern energy to dig a bit more to the southwest early on then this could easily go boom...

 

[Fountainguy97]

Fv3

 

[Cary_Snow95]

If we can get the northern energy to dig a bit more to the southwest early on then this could easily go boom...

Exactly my thought. Since last night the northern energy has continued to slow down and meet the southern energy a bit sooner each time. a couple more ticks with that northern energy and we can get it neutral over florida

 

[Cary_Snow95]

18z yesterday

18z Today

 

[Webberweather53]

Fv3
View attachment 13025

This is exactly why I said the past few days when most were saying this was already finished it wasn't over yet for NC esp along/east of US-HWY 1.