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Wintry 1/26-1/28 Winter Storm Potential

It does seem that the more interaction with the northern stream this setup has, the worse the second storm trends. So knowing our luck we will just miss this offshore and it will dry up the storm on 1/30
 
Webberweather53 said:
Really interested to see how the next few suites look, if we continue the long-term trend it's game on for the coastal plain & I-95 corridor
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And while it may seem like we need hundreds of miles for central NC, we really just need that northern energy to interact a bit sooner and west. If so this baby’s lifting north
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
And while it may seem like we need hundreds of miles for central NC, we really just need that northern energy to interact a bit sooner and west. If so this baby’s lifting north
Click to expand...

Yep, it's an exceptionally subtle change in a large-scale sense that's triggering these massive alterations at the surface. I know it's been a long time (or so it seems) since the December 2010 Xmas event but this case is clearly showing that our models still may not be "good enough" yet and massive adjustments in a similar setup are still possible inside the medium range.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Unfortunately, the southern stream wave fell behind some on this run vs 0z which pushed the low & precip further east. While also unlikely-very unlikely, we can't completely rule out a few rain or rain/snow showers directly underneath the vort max that comes rotating thru the deep south. Interested to see how the EPS looks this suite

View attachment 12975
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Yeah i wouldn't be surprised to see a few rain or snow showers during the day sunday.

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I guess the next question would be, if this legitimately keeps shifting NW, will it be cold enough for snow.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yep, it's an exceptionally subtle change in a large-scale sense that's triggering these massive alterations at the surface. I know it's been a long time (or so it seems) since the December 2010 Xmas event but this case is clearly showing that our models still may not be "good enough" yet and massive adjustments in a similar setup are still possible inside the medium range.
Click to expand...
Weird I was just thinking about the same system. I vividly remember the northern stream wave that fed into the back of the southern wave trending west and sharper up until almost the 0 hour. You can see the backside wave trending stronger and farther SW in time and more if an interaction taking place over the arklatex region.
9459a475590f3b0ec97e9ada35cf1ff2.gif


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tractor girl said:
Is there any chance the system could push NW far enough to impact ATL and middle GA (again assuming we have cold)
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My money is this thing won't make it to the coast, and if it does, it'll not make it even half way though NC. No chance here. I would have relied on the clipper that came though around the same time but that since has disappeared.
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
And while it may seem like we need hundreds of miles for central NC, we really just need that northern energy to interact a bit sooner and west. If so this baby’s lifting north
Click to expand...

Yeah the 5H level is the driver for the NW trend. If we ever get a good phase it’ll probably just be a big NW jump to a coastal system rather than a slow trend
 
Webberweather53 said:
Classic last minute NW trend at its finest.

View attachment 13054
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I should totally give up on this one, but it’s my thread so I go down with the ship. Lmao. Notice over AL, GA, SC and NC the height lines are lowering and backing up to the SW. tells me it’s trying to show where this wants to end up but I don’t think it’s gonna make it.
 
What we need
1548374663855.png
Where we are at
1548374680675.png
Slide the northern energy about 150 miles west like the top image and we have a monster. That run was able to slide that energy down and interact with the southern vort just soon enough to tilt it neutral
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
What we need
View attachment 13063
Where we are at
View attachment 13064
Slide the northern energy about 150 miles west like the top image and we have a monster. That run was able to slide that energy down and interact with the southern vort just soon enough to tilt it neutral
Click to expand...


Here is a gif of it. I use the free ImgPlay app on my phone for gifs.

9C5B67CA-2390-4FAA-881B-5161732E3198.gif

Very very close
 
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