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Wintry 1/26-1/28 Winter Storm Potential

So if I'm looking at this correctly our energy will be onshore later today, so I'll keep one eye open and see if better sampling yields any hope whatsoever with 0z models and definitely by 12z tomorrow...
 
metwannabe said:
It really is still heading in the right direction but just as you said, running out of time
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It is steadily improving but yeah the wave is onshore by tomorrow morning. We still need a good little shift to make it interesting. Seems like too little too late.
 
Just get southern energy to be in Houston neighborhood instead of Brownsville is all we need. It gets so deep in south Texas the ns coming down cant make contact. Like its reaching its hand out , but right off the fingertips.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Just keep in mind there are a multitude of competing influences that dictate where a cyclone goes, a surface trough merely represents one of those, surface baroclinity and eddy available potential energy that can be converted to kinetic energy. Advection by the background flow, cyclonic vorticity advection, large scale airmass advection, diabatic heating from convection, & pre-existing climatological baroclinic zones and areas where cyclogenesis is favored (the Gulf Stream and east of major mountain ranges respectively) all have a part to play. It’s going to take a pretty sizeable shift to give some snow to folks on the board but I wouldn’t give up yet from RDU and points east in NC.
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Yeah its interesting how all of these compete with each other over the track of the system. If this storm does indeed take the modeled path several hundred miles offshore it would definitely fly in the face of the "traditional" track along the gulf stream. It seems like in this case the main driver for track is the cyclonic vorticity. Which I guess it is normally the main driver in charge of track.
 
For those catching up, out of the loop, whatever.. the Euro did make a substantial shift last night as other modeling has been also. The precipitation shield is becomming closer... I think the Euro should handle 500mb better with it's resolution upgrades over the past couple of years.

It will be interesting to see if the Euro makes another substantial shift to a more favorable low location in a couple hours.
 
NCSNOW said:
Just get southern energy to be in Houston neighborhood instead of Brownsville is all we need. It gets so deep in south Texas the ns coming down cant make contact. Like its reaching its hand out , but right off the fingertips.
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And that's our issue. The timing of the two waves is getting better. In fact, if our southern branch was a few hundred miles north it would nearly be a big deal. The issue is we are not getting that north trend in our S/W. at this point we need it atleast 200miles further north over TX. Not much time for a shift like that.
 
It seems like this red piece of energy is the main cause that our S/W dives so far to the south.
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Tonight our energy comes onshore and breaks into two pieces. The red and blue circle. The blue eventually catches the red and when they merge the dive way south. You can watch the blue piece literally fly south into the red energy.

I think we want that red energy to just not be there at all. Models have insisted on breaking it into two pieces though.
 
here you can watch our two pieces merge. And they take the track of the southern piece. fv3p_z500_vort_us_fh30-54.gif

Of course even if it was a single piece of energy it may still dive just as far.
 
Fountainguy97 said:
It seems like this red piece of energy is the main cause that our S/W dives so far to the south.
View attachment 12958

Tonight our energy comes onshore and breaks into two pieces. The red and blue circle. The blue eventually catches the red and when they merge the dive way south. You can watch the blue piece literally fly south into the red energy.

I think we want that red energy to just not be there at all. Models have insisted on breaking it into two pieces though.
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Yeah I've noticed this too. What's good is that so far models have been far too quick to break up the S/W like this; previously they had it happening before it comes ashore, but that solution has disappeared on guidance. Here's the trend since yesterday morning (TT is missing the 12z yesterday):
fv3p_z500_vort_namer_fh12_trend.gif
(Note how the southern tail of the energy, situated off the west coast of Canada, has essentially died out and the northern piece has become a bit stronger).
 
RVD said:
Yeah I've noticed this too. What's good is that so far models have been far too quick to break up the S/W like this; previously they had it happening before it comes ashore, but that solution has disappeared on guidance. Here's the trend since yesterday morning (TT is missing the 12z yesterday):
View attachment 12960
(Note how the southern tail of the energy, situated off the west coast of Canada, has essentially died out and the northern piece has become a bit stronger).
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Nice catch. It’s these little intricacies of the wave that make or break us. If we can get rid of that second piece it may not dive as far south.

This could be something that changes tonight and tmrw as the energy is coming onshore. It’ll have too since it’s only a few hrs away haha
 
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deltadog03 said:
Euro continued to tilt the wave axis more. Still won’t likely matter, but the boundary is further north over the GOM
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Unfortunately, the southern stream wave fell behind some on this run vs 0z which pushed the low & precip further east. While also unlikely-very unlikely, we can't completely rule out a few rain or rain/snow showers directly underneath the vort max that comes rotating thru the deep south. Interested to see how the EPS looks this suite

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Webberweather53 said:
Unfortunately, the southern stream wave fell behind some on this run vs 0z which pushed the low & precip further east. While also unlikely-very unlikely, we can't completely rule out a few rain or rain/snow showers directly underneath the vort max that comes rotating thru the deep south. Interested to see how the EPS looks this suite

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I Agree...sucks about the southern wave...ugh!! I agree also about that wave that is over us as well, lets see if we can tilt it more...either way it likely means NADA for us.
 
Most models now have the edge of qpf right along the NC/SC coast or just a little offshore. If we can get the northern energy to slow up a little and the southern energy a little faster it would quickly change things but time is running out on that.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Unfortunately, the southern stream wave fell behind some on this run vs 0z which pushed the low & precip further east. While also unlikely-very unlikely, we can't completely rule out a few rain or rain/snow showers directly underneath the vort max that comes rotating thru the deep south. Interested to see how the EPS looks this suite

View attachment 12975
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First post here -- just incredible looking at that map (especially with the PV close to the US/Canadian border) how close we are to a big winter storm for NC
 
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