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Wintry 1/26-1/28 Winter Storm Potential

Really sucks, I’ve said this a million times but this one had potential
 
Webberweather53 said:
Fwiw, last night's EPS run was the wettest one in 4 model cycles in eastern NC & shifted the precip considerably further inland.

I still think this is too close to call for folks in the coastal plain & eastern piedmont.
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Exactly. Have we ever seen large shifts in recent years, even within 72 hours? Yes we have.
 
Rain Cold said:
Exactly. Have we ever seen large shifts in recent years, even within 72 hours? Yes we have.
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Yep especially in a setup like this. I personally still favor no storm as I said yesterday & if we see models consistently shift back OTS in the next 3-4 cycles then it's obviously dead. For now however, this still isn't over yet especially for folks like you, metwannabe, etc near & just east of US-1 & I-95
 
Rain Cold said:
Exactly. Have we ever seen large shifts in recent years, even within 72 hours? Yes we have.
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Yep, only have to go back to last January to find one of those. This snow associated with this storm in early January was supposed to be mainly confined to areas well east of I-95 even 3-4 days out and that obviously didn't happen.
January 3-4 2018 NC Snowmap.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yep especially in a setup like this. I personally still favor no storm as I said yesterday & if we see models consistently shift back OTS in the next 3-4 cycles then it's obviously dead. For now however, this still isn't over yet especially for folks like you, metwannabe, etc near & just east of US-1 & I-95
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The good thing for now is the models keep moving a little further west with each run instead of the other way around.
 
Brick Tamland said:
The good thing for now is the models keep moving a little further west with each run instead of the other way around.
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In order to get a storm out of this, the southern stream wave needs to speed up considerably and get out in front of the northern branch wave, it's still just a little too close to call, for now anyways.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yep, only have to go back to last January to find one of those. This snow associated with this storm in early January was supposed to be mainly confined to areas well east of I-95 even 3-4 days out and that obviously didn't happen.
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That storm made me madder than Judah Cohen predicting a SSWE.
 
Webberweather53 said:
In order to get a storm out of this, the southern stream wave needs to speed up considerably and get out in front of the northern branch wave, it's still just a little too close to call, for now anyways.
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Glad you posted that. Ive always understood only way to phase is ns has to come in behind ss. Guess it can just plop down on top od ss.

Anyway if we do miss, that leftover energy looks like its what is spawning up weak lp up the mid week front off icon or canadian
 
I think this one is done. It’s close for sure but don’t see us getting what we need.

Also this front moving through today will kind of stall out and leave an opening in the Atlantic and it’s that opening that our LP eventually slides into.

The Atlantic doesn’t have anything blocking this system. So it’s going to be VERY easy for it to slide harmlessly OTS.

Pretty clearly you can see the gap left behind.

This is right before pressure begins dropping for our system. HUGE opening OTS. This is 99.99% done.

CB7C0F3F-05B2-446D-BED4-D8AD032FE1A2.png
 
Fountainguy97 said:
I think this one is done. It’s close for sure but don’t see us getting what we need.

Also this front moving through today will kind of stall out and leave an opening in the Atlantic and it’s that opening that our LP eventually slides into.

The Atlantic doesn’t have anything blocking this system. So it’s going to be VERY easy for it to slide harmlessly OTS.

Pretty clearly you can see the gap left behind.

This is right before pressure begins dropping for our system. HUGE opening OTS. This is 99.99% done.

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This logic is flawed, surface high pressure off the SE US coast doesn't necessarily "block" a storm from going OTS if the mid-upper level forcing is there to support said system. In -NAOs for example, surface pressures are usually well below average offshore of the Atlantic seaboard but that does little to prevent surface cyclones from turning up the eastern seaboard and even lifting to the NW of some on this very board. It's really not as easy as "well there's a surface trough there so the storm has to go here" because the pattern has to remain favorable to put a storm there in the medium range.
 
Webberweather53 said:
This logic is flawed, surface high pressure off the SE US coast doesn't necessarily "block" a storm from going OTS if the mid-upper level forcing is there to support said system. In -NAOs for example, surface pressures are usually well below average offshore of the Atlantic seaboard but that does little to prevent surface cyclones from turning up the eastern seaboard and even lifting to the NW of some on this very board. It's really not as easy as "well there's a surface trough there so the storm has to go here" because the pattern has to remain favorable to put a storm there in the medium range.
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makes sense. Just saw the trough there and our LP rides in it nicely so made sense lol.

minimal changes on 12z gfs and fv3. They are shifting tiny bits better but we would need 5-10 more shifts like they have at the least.

We just cant get the southern piece ahead of the northern. we would need a fairly large change now to make a difference. It does not look like we will get that change.
 
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_21.png
 
Fountainguy97 said:
makes sense. Just saw the trough there and our LP rides in it nicely so made sense lol.

minimal changes on 12z gfs and fv3. They are shifting tiny bits better but we would need 5-10 more shifts like they have at the least.

We just cant get the southern piece ahead of the northern. we would need a fairly large change now to make a difference. It does not look like we will get that change.
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It really is still heading in the right direction but just as you said, running out of time
b146703658f0ccd5657b4837684c95a7.gif


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Fountainguy97 said:
makes sense. Just saw the trough there and our LP rides in it nicely so made sense lol.

minimal changes on 12z gfs and fv3. They are shifting tiny bits better but we would need 5-10 more shifts like they have at the least.

We just cant get the southern piece ahead of the northern. we would need a fairly large change now to make a difference. It does not look like we will get that change.
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Just keep in mind there are a multitude of competing influences that dictate where a cyclone goes, a surface trough merely represents one of those, surface baroclinity and eddy available potential energy that can be converted to kinetic energy. Advection by the background flow, cyclonic vorticity advection, large scale airmass advection, diabatic heating from convection, & pre-existing climatological baroclinic zones and areas where cyclogenesis is favored (the Gulf Stream and east of major mountain ranges respectively) all have a part to play. It’s going to take a pretty sizeable shift to give some snow to folks on the board but I wouldn’t give up yet from RDU and points east in NC.
 
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