• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry 1/26-1/28 Winter Storm Potential

Meteorologist1999 said:
Looking at CMC H5 precipitation should of definitely been there.
Click to expand...

Energy is also weaker than the previous run. That’s not going to get done, as it gets neutral way too late and our low forms off the coast.

I’ve posted on the ridge before, but you can use these two frames for Jan 26 at 18z for model runs going forward and you can essentially predict if a storm will be there or not.

We need a tall ridge out west, like this
ecbaeba427d8c663949aaca7f2150a8c.jpg


Which allows our shortwave (if modeled strong enough) to dig south
21eb2bc47160edf06e7c2346aceb0ab7.jpg


You can see this allows the energy to go neutral tilt over the Florida panhandle
01f3df9c4a0ffc1a5b405f2ac8107d15.jpg


Now look at the cmc, ridge looks good but there’s no shortwave. There has to be a strong shortwave digging by 18z Jan 26 in order to have a large widespread SE snow.
9a489bd1ea791f8c5d138b509ad8528c.jpg


Same thing on the gfs
Ridge is crap, and it deposits a weird ULL in California
b873cf68b4859458006454040e59cd9e.jpg


The energy kicks out and fizzles, and the storm is dominated by the northern stream. Causes an inland solution.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Chattownsnow said:
Honestly I have been following these boards and others since 2008 and I have seen this song and dance before. More often then not the s/w trends weaker and weaker on the models as the event nears when they come out of southwest Canada. I would not be surprised at all if this thing ends up something like this by the time periods roles through. This is just based on past experience. Would be nice to buck that trend.
Click to expand...
True. But on this run it’s closed off sitting in California
 
Ethan80963 said:
ICON=not good at end of its run
GFS=Changes every run
CMC=Also flips every run

Just keep an eye on the ensembles
Click to expand...

I would say the ensembles and the FV3. Maybe the Euro will come around, too. Right now those two ops and the ensembles seem to be the most accurate.
 
when This far out and with a strong northern stream I’m not really surprised that some op models are kinda losing the storm, I didn’t die off this run but if the gefs back off alot than that’s a problem, if it backs off a little that’s understandable
 
What I'm most interested in is if the GEFS shows any agreement with dumping the energy in the SW. That's why I just pulled up the 500 mb maps that load a bit quicker on Pivotal.

If it doesn't support it, then I'll forget that GFS run. I think I'm more worried about the possibility of this energy being a bit weak then it dumping into the SW.
 
I'm not quite there on pivotal yet but based off the COD website, I don't think it supports what the GFS showed. Only a couple members aren't really showing much on Sunday yet.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top