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Wintry 1/26-1/28 Winter Storm Potential

ForsythSnow said:
Looks like the tilt was too late. Again. Good storm to the south but ATL folks aren't going to be happy with this solution.
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Given how many times I’ve been screwed by the NW trend, I’ll take this look 100 times out of 100. Jan 2017 & Feb 2015 are 2 that come to mind, but as Arcc said, the precip shield has to be further north. Unless that LP tighens up so much when crossing into the Atlantic, I don’t know how a few bands don’t make it up this way.
 
This is banter, but I'm not falling for semantics at this point. Two things we all know will happen at some point, run-to-run changes as well as the northwest trend.
 
12z JMA puts the low all the way down on the tip of southern FL.
9b53621408db90bbf640c305c54c8ab5.jpg
 

  • Showmeyourtds said:
    Given how many times I’ve been screwed by the NW trend, I’ll take this look 100 times out of 100. Jan 2017 & Feb 2015 are 2 that come to mind, but as Arcc said, the precip shield has to be further north. Unless that LP tighens up so much when crossing into the Atlantic, I don’t know how a few bands don’t make it up this way.
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  • Yeah, Id no doubt take the current track 100\100 times if I were in Cullman.
 
Arcc said:
Nah, I'd bet precip would be much farther NW. Probably a historic storm for Montgomery and Chris though.
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Glad you’re back in here posting regarding this one. Really excited to track this one! That euro run was a beauty!
 
Showmeyourtds said:
Given how many times I’ve been screwed by the NW trend, I’ll take this look 100 times out of 100. Jan 2017 & Feb 2015 are 2 that come to mind, but as Arcc said, the precip shield has to be further north. Unless that LP tighens up so much when crossing into the Atlantic, I don’t know how a few bands don’t make it up this way.
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That snow map is bound to change quite a bit I would think. Great position for the low for us at this range.
 
How often does the nw trend happen anyone know?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Snowflowxxl said:
Not today you don’t. It would be an apps runner by verification.
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yeah idk about wanting a NW trend unless it were to bomb. If it phases earlier it's going to go inland. The coastal transfer might be hurting but I think more than just NC is going to have to take their shot with this one. Certainly think there'd be more precip with that low of a LP but it's too early to worry about that.
 
Showmeyourtds said:
Given how many times I’ve been screwed by the NW trend, I’ll take this look 100 times out of 100. Jan 2017 & Feb 2015 are 2 that come to mind, but as Arcc said, the precip shield has to be further north. Unless that LP tighens up so much when crossing into the Atlantic, I don’t know how a few bands don’t make it up this way.
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Think Jan 28, 2014...I ain't worried. Central Ga should be...ain't good be in the bullseye this early.
 
12z suite update

Fv3: good. Starting to focus in on energy at hour 120.

Gefs: nice increase in Miller A solution

EURO: similar to fv3 run from last night.



I’d say we have a storm signal for sure. Next up we want consistency from globals.
 
LovingGulfLows said:
Surprised by how tightly wound the system is. Sorry, but I just don't see a low that far north in the gulf not throw more precip inland, especially one that's relatively strong.
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We have 7 days to work that out. All we need to see in this timeframe is a good track. So far we are zeroing in on a coastal. Let’s get the track where we want it.

Qpf will come if we have a monster like the euro shows.


IF there is a concern for us it’s the cold air. There is plenty of it but we would like to see an HP trend stronger to help push some of that cold air in.
 
LovingGulfLows said:
Surprised by how tightly wound the system is. Sorry, but I just don't see a low that far north in the gulf not throw more precip inland, especially one that's relatively strong.
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If it happens, I saw the snow would be in Birmingham to Atlanta and a wintry mix( snow and sleet) central GA and AL. My guess...carry on!
 
Weather from times of old.... they had no computer models.. yes.. some of this stuff you hear is nutty... but I know and have observed this to be true.. tons of black birds on the ground... thunder then 10 days later.... extreme cold, snow, ice , or any of the mentioned... I have legitimacy on this... passed down by my family.. my great great grandfather was the sheriff of Cherokee county North Carolina... he married a Cherokee Indian... they only knew things of weather by observing nature.
deltadog03 said:
Paging JB..... we got thunder last night, what does that mean again? Lol
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deltadog03 said:
Paging JB..... we got thunder last night, what does that mean again? Lol
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LovingGulfLows said:
Surprised by how tightly wound the system is. Sorry, but I just don't see a low that far north in the gulf not throw more precip inland, especially one that's relatively strong.
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As modeled, the trough orientation doesn't allow for a great return flow out of the GOM, thus the canopy of precip is limited until it taps the Atlantic. At least that's how I see it. That's why I say this one will favor eastern areas; assuming of course that the models are in the general ball park as of now.
 
LovingGulfLows said:
Surprised by how tightly wound the system is. Sorry, but I just don't see a low that far north in the gulf not throw more precip inland, especially one that's relatively strong.
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Yeah that's what I'm worried about. Unless there is some proof a storm like that would fling moisture inland, then I doubt it'll work. The tilt needs to be negative in Georgia I think for a good moisture feed. Without such, the storm will only dump on NC and SC and skip GA. We need an earlier tilt or this won't be a N GA storm at all. Someone do correct me if I'm off.
 
Broken024 said:
Didnt it blank Atlanta?
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We need to worry about the details of the storm later, but for me to clarify on what I said earlier, if the low is going to be that strong, I don't think any of us want the NW trend. If it starts anytime soon, it's going to be a massive apps runner (which would be fine for the western part of the SE).

Edit: What will probably be needed in about 5 days is for the models to show the storm tilting a touch sooner but it's too soon to worry about stuff like that. Storm signal is good but cold air might be a worry.
 
It seems like some are just looking for details. It is too far out still to be looking for details of the storm. Things will still change. I'm thankful the Euro still has the storm. In the mean time, I'm going to be on standby for the EPS.
 
Oh I know I was just responding to the dude from Atlanta that said best run in 5 years when it showed no snow in Atlanta
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
We need to worry about the details of the storm later, but for me to clarify on what I said earlier, if the low is going to be that strong, I don't think any of us want the NW trend. If it starts anytime soon, it's going to be a massive apps runner (which would be fine for the western part of the SE).

Edit: What will probably be needed in about 5 days is for the models to show the storm tilting a touch sooner but it's too soon to worry about stuff like that. Storm signal is good but cold air might be a worry.
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I ain't worry about Cold air either...it will be there trust me!
 
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