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Wintry 1/26-1/28 Winter Storm Potential

Myfrotho704_ said:
This thing still actually has potential to become something major, 850s right now look good, and like jimmy and rain cold have said, you want the storm to look like this at this time on models, then by hour 120-150 let it slowly crawl NW and get the LP at around 1000, and I’ve seen many times these past storms over the years where the western ridge gets stronger as the storm gets closer, we’ll see but this thing has overwhelming potential
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im actually concerned this thing just forms off the coast of the Carolinas at this point. Still early. I’ve seen these things move in every direction from here. The good news is we’re not rooting for a south trend which rarely, if ever, happens
 

I would be referring to Deep South. Like midlands of South Carolina south of Atlanta places like that. Which gfs supports a good front in snow north of 85 in South Carolina. And a great snow for mountains


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Fv stays the course really. A little later/east but no extreme change. Supports the gefs
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SD said:
Impressive for a D8 mean. Obviously skewed by high end members but damn
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Exactly what we need from the ensembles. DO NOT get wrapped up in the OP models. They will literally jump hundreds and hundreds of miles.

This gefs mean is an incredible signal. One of the strongest I’ve seen for so far out
 
really Want to see what the eps says, euro is important but I’m not really to worried about OP models atm
 
With the gefs full steam ahead we also need to watch the euro ensemble closely. We want it to come on our side as well. OP euro isn’t as important but it does validate the ensemble if OP runs come in better.
 
tractor girl said:
What's with the relative "snow hole" around ATL?
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It's the Chattanooga dry slot that usually happens. Chattanooga has the life sucked out of winter storms while the surrounding areas gets hit with a nice snow. We've been lucky to overproduce on a few systems the last 6 years but it melted off the next day. I would love to see a nice blanket if snow down the 75 corridor all the way to Atlanta.

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It will be good to hear Webber, Chris, and 1300m chime in with their takes on the latest runs and how things look at this stage. 7 days is an eternity in the weather world but at least there is a chance that we could be tracking a winter storm for parts of the SE later this week. Even the deep South might be in play which would be nice!
 
SD said:
Impressive for a D8 mean. Obviously skewed by high end members but damn
b2c317eddd5e3c2b50d760a6cb87b025.jpg
4215de31ef276edfeddd6df4392c81e1.jpg


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How does the mean look compared to the December storm this far out? Anyone recall?
 
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