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Wintry 1/26-1/28 Winter Storm Potential

Fountainguy97 said:
Yeah now that models are consistently trending we can really focus on the traditional gfs, U.K., euro group.

It’s nice to have other models support them but not necessary.

In fact, with a storm like this it’s possible even up to game time we have a random model showing nothing and others a big storm.

That’s what happened in 2010. Models didn’t get it right until 24-36 hrs out.
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Trying to recall which model was the first one to start shifting NW with the storm then.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Trying to recall which model was the first one to start shifting NW with the storm then.
Click to expand...


Not sure probably euro or gfs.

The summary of the system mentions that the euro solutions in the 6-7 day period were close to reality.

I don’t think the particular model matters from 2010.

But I like the fact that the runs in the 6-7 day timeframe of 2010 turned out close.

Remember the fv3 gave NC big snow 4 out of 5 runs in the 6.5-7.5 day period with this storm.


The last 6 runs of fv3 has been steadily trending better. My eyes are on it right now.
 
Fountainguy97 said:
Yeah now that models are consistently trending we can really focus on the traditional gfs, U.K., euro group.

It’s nice to have other models support them but not necessary.

In fact, with a storm like this it’s possible even up to game time we have a random model showing nothing and others a big storm.

That’s what happened in 2010. Models didn’t get it right until 24-36 hrs out.
Click to expand...
Real interested in the Ukie..... it has it's moments but many times is real good with synoptic setups especially dealing with a possible phase
 
T
Brick Tamland said:
Trying to recall which model was the first one to start shifting NW with the storm then.
Click to expand...
TBH it's irrelevant at this point, I think all models have had some sort of upgrade since that time so any comparison from a modeling stand point probably not beneficial at all.
 
metwannabe said:
Real interested in the Ukie..... it has it's moments but many times is real good with synoptic setups especially dealing with a possible phase
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It does have a reputation for being great with large coastal phasers. Not sure how good it is at “sniffing out the energies” but it handles phasing very well.
 
Fountainguy97 said:
Not sure probably euro or gfs.

The summary of the system mentions that the euro solutions in the 6-7 day period were close to reality.

I don’t think the particular model matters from 2010.

But I like the fact that the runs in the 6-7 day timeframe of 2010 turned out close.

Remember the fv3 gave NC big snow 4 out of 5 runs in the 6.5-7.5 day period with this storm.


The last 6 runs of fv3 has been steadily trending better. My eyes are on it right now.
Click to expand...

Well, we have seen where storms showed up a week out, then disappeared, and came back about 3 or 4 days out like the 2010 one. Hope this is another case of that happening.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Well, we have seen where storms showed up a week out, then disappeared, and came back about 3 or 4 days out like the 2010 one. Hope this is another case of that happening.
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I feel like I’ve said this for 5 days... (because I have lol).

Anything is still on the table.

I think we can mark out the chance this cuts inland.

It’s either suppressed OTS or a coastal scraper.

Just sit back and let the NW trend reel us in a beauty
 
Fountainguy97 said:
I feel like I’ve said this for 5 days... (because I have lol).

Anything is still on the table.

I think we can mark out the chance this cuts inland.

It’s either suppressed OTS or a coastal scraper.

Just sit back and let the NW trend reel us in a beauty
Click to expand...
Oh yeah.... we probably should clarify that any NW trend at this point is most likely coastal only (maybe eastern half of the Carolina's if we're real lucky)
 
metwannabe said:
T

TBH it's irrelevant at this point, I think all models have had some sort of upgrade since that time so any comparison from a modeling stand point probably not beneficial at all.
Click to expand...
Correct. And it was the GFS, if memory serves. It started showing a big storm, and people were tossing it because of data initialization problems. It ended up being right.
 
metwannabe said:
Oh yeah.... we probably should clarify that any NW trend at this point is most likely coastal only (maybe eastern half of the Carolina's if we're real lucky)
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Yeah I may have gotten a little to excited about this maybe trending back NW to put Alabama into play again but that’s not happening, either way, it should be interesting to see how this whole thing evolves.
 
ForsythSnow said:
I believe it was mentioned the GFS is the FV3. If you compare the output from that model with the FV3 when it comes out elsewhere you'll see they are the same.
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Translation: If you had been paying attention you would've read that the GFS is the FV3 and if you do a little work, read and compare you will see this therefore stop asking stupid questions. Lol j/k

and

what I'm looking at on the NCEP page is definitely the GFS.... anyway, no big deal don't want to hijack the thread. I see it on pivotal and it's a step in the right direction just as @Arcc just mentioned.
 
Anybody got any of them sideways UK maps?
 
Fv is getting close to that run where it gave N.C. a snowstorm, not sure it will do it again but it’s getting closer, just so close to phasing
 
Oh boy so close, another adjustment or 2 like this and boom goes the dynamite
5cb0bd7e1a2abd893642a9ef5dd87c4e.gif


Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
 
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