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Wintry 1/26-1/28 Winter Storm Potential

Webberweather53 said:
This afternoon's 12z Euro just took a big step in the right direction & looks more like the fv3 at 500mb but still has work left to do. Again, those in the coastal plain & eastern piedmont of the Carolinas are still too close to call, a couple more shifts like this would dramatically change the outcome from nada to a really big storm. Even 4-5 days is too far out with such a fickle large-scale setup like this one

This isn't over yet by a long shot for east-central NC

View attachment 12803
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Can we back that northern wave west three hundred miles or so please?

In all seriousness, definitely a better look just on the color maps.
 
To piggy back on what y'all are saying....EURO did change the tilt of the trof quite dramatically this run.... Still think this a NO, but still need to watch for more trends....interesting.
Yesteredays 12z run vs todays...
ecmwf_z500a_us_6-2.pngecmwf_z500a_us_5.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
This afternoon's 12z Euro just took a big step in the right direction & looks more like the fv3 at 500mb but still has work left to do. Again, those in the coastal plain & eastern piedmont of the Carolinas are still too close to call, a couple more shifts like this would dramatically change the outcome from nada to a really big storm. Even 4-5 days is too far out with such a fickle large-scale setup like this one

This isn't over yet by a long shot for east-central NC

View attachment 12803
Click to expand...

Mike Maze did say the outer banks could get something out of this system.
 
Really wish we can get something out of this storm here, been a minute since we seen a nice coastal storm that produces snow for areas here, last year the obx already saw a good coastal storm and some of the videos were amazing when it was bombing out
 
RollTide18 said:
How much further west can that southern piece trend?
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I think you're really not rooting for it to be farther west. I think you want it farther north and strong and the northern pieces of energy to be slightly behind it and also strong and diggy. That gives you the best chance for phasing, which depending upon the degree of phasing, would cause storm generation sooner (west) and cause and allow the storm to strengthen and move north sooner. Also, getting that upper wave in the mix would allow an injection of cold into the storm and eventually tug the PV southeastward.

All that is predicated on a strongly phased storm with all three pieces of energy on the map above. For that to happen, we have to assume those waves exist, can be strong enough, and can get aligned properly and in time. for areas west of Columbia to Raleigh, it's kind of like being down 4 with 10 seconds left without the ball. For areas east of that line, it's kind of like being down 4 with 10 seconds left with the ball. It's a two possession game either way. Or a steal and a foul on a made 3, an intentionally missed free throw, rebounded and put back in for the win. Difficult, but not impossible.
 
Fountainguy97 said:
The fv3 made large changes at the upper levels where it matters.

View attachment 12817
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To add to this, you can see the FV3 completely lost that funky vort/cutoff over California that has been interfering with our energy the last several days. Also has the energy entering in Idaho which is ideal. Now we just need it to kinda amp near west Texas and be a liiitle not less positive tilted.
d93ac72012f69f9f10e6ff23d00c9282.gif


Here’s the euro same time period, with drastic moves like these you can’t really count the storm out.
d5d343e8b4adb1e9c576b5ca49827d61.gif

Low probability yes, but not dead.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
RollTide18 said:
How much further west can that southern piece trend?
Click to expand...
Who's to say, really. I think you and I (AL) do want it to come west and a possible to phase to happen farther west. By this time tomorrow we should have a good idea if it is going to be possible or not.
 
Jon said:
To add to this, you can see the FV3 completely lost that funky vort/cutoff over California that has been interfering with our energy the last several days. Also has the energy entering in Idaho which is ideal. Now we just need it to kinda amp near west Texas and be a liiitle not less positive tilted.
d93ac72012f69f9f10e6ff23d00c9282.gif


Here’s the euro same time period, with drastic moves like these you can’t really count the storm out.
d5d343e8b4adb1e9c576b5ca49827d61.gif

Low probability yes, but not dead.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...


Honestly I think that vort cutoff was “opening” the ridge to the south and west of our wave and allowing it to dive very far.

With that going away that could maintain the ridge influence and help bump it further to the east.

It’s crazy we need a tiny east shift to bring this thing west haha.

It’s all about the speed of that S/W. It can take whatever track it wants to as long as it is in the GOM going negative tilt in line with the rest of the trough.

So it either needs to a. Take a shorter path at the same speed (more southeast direction) or b. Speed up but still dive a bit farther than normal.
 
Precip Sheild hugs the coast, H5 continues to get a little better, 0z will probably take more of a chunk of a better step relatively speaking
 
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