Nomanslandva
Member
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Wintry 1/26-1/28 Winter Storm Potential
- Thread starter deltadog03
- Start date
Fountainguy97
Member
This is the fv3. I’ve never seen 1hr gfs maps. It matches up perfectly with fv3 on tidbits.
https://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Oh boy so close, another adjustment or 2 like this and boom goes the dynamite
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Definitely looks like we're trending in the right direction right now, and still have some time to work with. Better to see this as we get closer than going the other way for sure.
It was Jan. 19th, gov't shut down has delayed that to who knows when....
Fountainguy97
Member
Oh boy so close, another adjustment or 2 like this and boom goes the dynamite
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Wow. That’s extremely close.
The trough axis has gotten a bit sharper and slow down on the FV, good
Edit* and the western ridge has gotten slightly better aswell
Edit* and the western ridge has gotten slightly better aswell
Imagine if these three pieces linked up? Timing is off on this run, but for 102 hours out, assuming they are real, they're well within the realm of interaction.Oh boy so close, another adjustment or 2 like this and boom goes the dynamite
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It would definitely force a stronger system, developing more rapidly with more cold air and closer to the coast.
I’m just tracking this storm for fun, I don’t think clt areas will see any of much but just interesting to track this thing
Thanks for the UK, y'all. Yeah that's way out there. But those 850s are solid, though! (assuming they are 850s). 
Fountainguy97
Member
1-2 more trends like this and it’s a monster.
Yeah..... dang the Ukmet was kind of a buzz kill.Thanks for the UK, y'all. Yeah that's way out there. But those 850s are solid, though! (assuming they are 850s).
Fountainguy97
Member
It’s not that far off from fv3. And it hasn’t really been the go to model this winter either.
Yeah, it would have been nice to see it take a nice step.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Definitely still seems more probable atm that we'll get no storm here but you're clearly not out of the woods yet from the US-1 corridor and points east into the coastal plain, this setup is too fickle to sleep on it more than 3 days out. If other NWP follows the FV3's lead within the next 2-3 cycles then it could be game on for some in/around these areas. I still favor no storm at all but the fat lady hasn't sung yet.
Snowflowxxl
Member
This does not look optimal
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This afternoon's 12z Euro just took a big step in the right direction & looks more like the fv3 at 500mb but still has work left to do. Again, those in the coastal plain & eastern piedmont of the Carolinas are still too close to call, a couple more shifts like this would dramatically change the outcome from nada to a really big storm. Even 4-5 days is too far out with such a fickle large-scale setup like this one
This isn't over yet by a long shot for east-central NC
This isn't over yet by a long shot for east-central NC
packfan98
Moderator
Much sharper trough on the new Euro pulling it north.
