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Wintry 1/26-1/28 Winter Storm Potential

It does looks like the upper end of that shortwave connects with the northern energy as approaches florida not sure if that's what's helping produce a little precipation into GA
 
Fountainguy97 said:
This is honestly not far off from how the December 2010 storm went down.

Models didn’t catch on until the day of.

Here is two days out:
View attachment 12763

Here is day of:
View attachment 12764

Also here is a snippet from the event summary:

“This solution would eventually verify fairly well and was close to the ECMWF forecast 6 to 7 days out.”

The fv3 7 days out repeatedly gave many a good snow for this current storm.

You can read the summary here.


https://projects.ncsu.edu/atmos_collaboration/nwsfo/storage/cases/20101226/


Of course this current storm may not come north like the 2010 storm did. BUT we have a very similar setup to 2010. Models in the 7 day range gave many areas a snow storm. But have since suppressed it.

We have had a decent trend to speed up the southern wave over the last 5 fv3 runs and the 06z phases it and delievers a powerful storm up north.

This could very easily be another case of models overly suppressing a storm
Click to expand...
I posted a GIF showing the evolution of that track, nobody paid my any mind (maybe they all got me on ignore Lol) I just want some recognition dang it.... j/k that's banter I know.

On a serious thread related note, that storm was all but written off b/c of the way ots solutions, then it came back, was a late bloomer and personally I benefited from a late bloomer, 11" to be exact... I think the setup is different so I don't really expect this one to come back that far but at the same time it certainly cannot be ruled out. I'm intrigued to see what the energy looks like today on the models and will prob wait until the 0z model to really start leaning to it's ova or not
 
metwannabe said:
I posted a GIF showing the evolution of that track, nobody paid my any mind (maybe they all got me on ignore Lol) I just want some recognition dang it.... j/k that's banter I know.

On a serious thread related note, that storm was all but written off b/c of the way ots solutions, then it came back, was a late bloomer and personally I benefited from a late bloomer, 11" to be exact... I think the setup is different so I don't really expect this one to come back that far but at the same time it certainly cannot be ruled out. I'm intrigued to see what the energy looks like today on the models and will prob wait until the 0z model to really start leaning to it's ova or not
Click to expand...
Totally agree.
 
Latest gfs actually is the closest I’ve seen the precip shield to the Carolinas in like a day, I can’t see low pressure placement on cod but I looked at the trend and what do you know the precip shield has come nw these past runs
 
Maybe I'm wrong this clipper is problematic too, seems to act as a kicker if nothing else it interferes with any CAA
Btw what's up with TT?

500hv.conus.png
 
The relaxation/area of the PV is going to determine whether this can turn NE or just shear out, PV was much better this run and we are back in business, can’t ignore this storm
 
metwannabe said:
Yeah that's huge and honestly within the realm of possibility now.... seen storms trend NW from that location many times
Click to expand...


Yeah the more the waves phase the more we will see it trend NW. this won’t be a sudden 0 to 100 change in one run. It’ll be that slow methodical NW trend as models realize the interaction.

IMO this is the perfect spot for us to be in right now. Even though it’s so depressing right now haha but PLENTY of time to get a NW trend.

Honestly we are very close. If the waves phase 6 hrs sooner then thatll pull this low way north.
 
Ethan80963 said:
Didn’t we say if it got really suppressed then when want the NW trends to start on Wednesday well here we go
Click to expand...

Yep. This is the perfect time to start the NW trend.

Really what we need to make that happen is a quicker phase and we could use the PV and southern wave a touch north but not much.

These phasing systems give models some of their toughest challeneges so it’s totally possible to see large changes on the surface. Small tiny changes at the 5H level can cause hundreds of miles of changes at the surface.
 
Lol cmc shows nothing, but it has been all over the place with the pv and it sucks but i guess you gotta pay attention to it
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Lol cmc shows nothing, but it has been all over the place with the pv and it sucks but i guess you gotta pay attention to it
Click to expand...


Yeah now that models are consistently trending we can really focus on the traditional gfs, U.K., euro group.

It’s nice to have other models support them but not necessary.

In fact, with a storm like this it’s possible even up to game time we have a random model showing nothing and others a big storm.

That’s what happened in 2010. Models didn’t get it right until 24-36 hrs out.
 
Yeah, GFS is a lot closer to NC this time. Not there yet, but that is a big improvement.
 
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