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Wintry 1/26-1/28 Winter Storm Potential

Temps are too warm on the CMC for most of Bama and GA though

gem_T2m_seus_20.png
 
DarkKnight said:
Time to close the books on the one in here guys. The real threat will be the 29th - 30th storm.
Any objections ?
Click to expand...
Yeah, I think this thread should be closed. If there was going to be a winter storm during this time, it would have been on the models by now on every single model run. The time frame is now in the 5 day window, so there probably won't be any major changes.
 
I don't get the deal about closing the thread. At least give it until tomorrow.
 
Why would we close a thread? If one needs to be closed its the whining thread.

Now we have created numerous posts discussing closing a thread which is banter. If you don't think there is going to be a storm don't open the thread and read it. Its simple really

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
 
SD said:
Why would we close a thread? If one needs to be closed its the whining thread.

Now we have created numerous posts discussing closing a thread which is banter. If you don't think there is going to be a storm don't open the thread and read it. Its simple really

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
I agree please don't turn this forum into the mess the other one has. I love this forum as everyone is allowed to be who they are within reason.
 
This is honestly not far off from how the December 2010 storm went down.

Models didn’t catch on until the day of.

Here is two days out:
63D9B0B1-0C60-47A2-BF73-F15B40A1B86E.png

Here is day of:
AE2B79A3-FCDD-4157-B783-7E5F51E5BD92.png

Also here is a snippet from the event summary:

“This solution would eventually verify fairly well and was close to the ECMWF forecast 6 to 7 days out.”

The fv3 7 days out repeatedly gave many a good snow for this current storm.

You can read the summary here.


https://projects.ncsu.edu/atmos_collaboration/nwsfo/storage/cases/20101226/


Of course this current storm may not come north like the 2010 storm did. BUT we have a very similar setup to 2010. Models in the 7 day range gave many areas a snow storm. But have since suppressed it.

We have had a decent trend to speed up the southern wave over the last 5 fv3 runs and the 06z phases it and delievers a powerful storm up north.

This could very easily be another case of models overly suppressing a storm
 
Fountainguy97 said:
This is honestly not far off from how the December 2010 storm went down.

Models didn’t catch on until the day of.

Here is two days out:
View attachment 12763

Here is day of:
View attachment 12764

Also here is a snippet from the event summary:

“This solution would eventually verify fairly well and was close to the ECMWF forecast 6 to 7 days out.”

The fv3 7 days out repeatedly gave many a good snow for this current storm.

You can read the summary here.


https://projects.ncsu.edu/atmos_collaboration/nwsfo/storage/cases/20101226/


Of course this current storm may not come north like the 2010 storm did. BUT we have a very similar setup to 2010. Models in the 7 day range gave many areas a snow storm. But have since suppressed it.

We have had a decent trend to speed up the southern wave over the last 5 fv3 runs and the 06z phases it and delievers a powerful storm up north.

This could very easily be another case of models overly suppressing a storm
Click to expand...

The part that I have seen that is very different from that storm is the cold air is literally being blocked off. So we have no high pressure to work with if the precipitation does finally come around. And if were relying on the phase to bring the cold air that would have to occur very early.
 
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