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Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm
- Thread starter packfan98
- Start date
This somewhat resembles when I was following the early January 2018 coastal storm that ended up giving SE and coastal GA/S and coastal SC their biggest winter storm by far in a generation (since 12/1989). The ensemble runs a number of days in advance of 1/2018 were showing a decent number of members with a very rare coastal GA/SC winter storm, which was something I hadn’t seen on ensembles in years, if at all. (I may search the old thread to confirm the details.)
Todays models and certainly this 0Z GEFS are looking pretty similar with more than an isolated member or two. Until this potential storm showed up, there had been zero ensemble runs with this level of activity since 1/2018. So, despite the rarity of these coastal storms, this has my attention. Could there be two just 4 years apart?
I counted 30% (9) of the members with significant wintry precip for here. Also, I counted 10% (3) at @pcbjr home, something I haven’t seen in 4 years.
Local weather station tonight already had a 40% chance of snow for the upstate next Friday
Where was your location exactly?
Just a gut feeling but the euro and it’s ensembles we’re the most consistent with our current winter storm in the longer range before the gfs eventually took the lead in consistency. I think if euro ensembles still look good tonight the GFS will start ejecting the energy eastward like the 18z run. 0z gfs was a very suspect run looked almost identical to 12z. Euro/EPS is important tonight
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The Canadian did great from four-three days out. Same with GFS. I think they both did awesome.
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Yes I agree, but D7/8 the euro led the way then kinda lost it in medium range then came back
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Cary_Snow95
Member
For some reason new runs of the euro haven’t updated on TT or pivotal… anyone else having this issue. Most recent run showing up is 00z yesterday
accu35
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Clarke Co
I have it, it looks almost identical to 12z
Cary_Snow95
Member
Finally updated. It’s ejecting the energy out as well
Euro out to 126 and the wave is dropping down nicely in positive tilt fashion. It doesn't look like it's going to be as gung ho as the 12z run...but still looks pretty good...let's see
Euro out to 135. It's phasing the waves again, but just a touch later this run....going to be a good storm
Cary_Snow95
Member
Here we go, look at all that damn high pressure 
Cary_Snow95
Member
That's a change I can live with. Feel much better about a little less amped at this stage
Euro is another big one....really sharpens the wave late
Cary_Snow95
Member
WPC all in 
Cary_Snow95
Member
Absolutely gorgeous banana high over the top
Cary_Snow95
Member
Clown maps are going to be big
Looks a lot warmer to me. In comparison to the 12z run. At least here in the Midlands, anyways. Closer to the CMC run SLP wise, i think.
Cary_Snow95
Member
Looks identical to the 18z GFS. Not gonna lie though, seeing it wrapped up right off Hatteras is unnerving. Very cmc likeClown maps are going to be big
Snowflowxxl
Member
DAMN.... this thing is just too good to be true. Hopefully it goes to Cuba the next two days and returns on Tuesday.
Clown maps are going to be big
Phased a little later that time but same idea overall. Just need the gfs to start ejecting the souther energy consistently
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Getting a little nervous, I think this setup is cold enough, but any more trends like this and it becomes another mixed bag/low cutting more inland 
Looks like the Knickerbocker storm that occurred almost exactly 100 years ago (on the right)
Cary_Snow95
Member
Ended up quite a bit more amped compared to 12z. Need that to settle down. Verbatim that run was a sleet crush job in eastern NC
Exactly! Much warmer run this time. Runs will vary as you well know, just hope it isn't the start of a trend!
It's not because it is more amped. It's because the ridge over Canada isn't as strong, and doesn't cut off the 50/50 low to allow it further east.
No matter what, this pattern has insane potential to produce a significant winter storm, you just don’t see ridges out west like this often anymore 
Yep, this will probably not make sfc temps much of a issue I’m this setup, but just track issues. If we Miller B somehow, the CaD would probably be quite colder then today even
Cary_Snow95
Member
The temps after the storm are just insane. Highs struggle to leave the 20s and lows are in the single digits
I definitely interested to see the EPS and euro control on it.