Broken024
Member
1 inch snow mean out to Wilmington. Love to see that.
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Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm
- Thread starter packfan98
- Start date
bingcrosbyb
Member
Oh lord my heart be still. This is the board wide Big Dog we’ve been waiting for.
The Euro has ~0.75” of ZR here, which would be the heaviest since, believe it or not, the predecessor to the Knickerbocker storm, which paralyzed SAV with ZR 1/25-26/1922 (about the worst ZR here I could find on record)…almost exactly 100 years ago to the day! If this were to actually turn out to be an actual threat, I might have to get a generator.
Hypsometric
Member
EPS is firing warning shots loud and clear. 3” mean to the coast this far out is amazing.
February 1973?
What is causing the suppression during the D7 time frame?
brendan123
Member
I honestly really don’t like being in the bullseye of the EPS this far out. I’m managing my expectations even though right now this looks like the biggest threat for me this season so far. Hopefully it (somehow) trends southeast or at the very least doesn’t trend that far northwest.
Cary_Snow95
Member
From my eye just the strong cold push. WAR can push back. Little sketchy
GeorgiaGirl
Member
2/12/10 apparently, although my eyeballs from then and measurements would disagree. It was more like 5"...maybe it compacted to that, idk.
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TPV around the lakes/SE Canada
I dont want to be that guy but this look has so much potential to turn into a Miller B setup, all it takes is the TPV in SE Canada/the NE to lift off faster, and higher heights to squeeze in between it, and the system to dig even further SW. this go around looks very cold tho and the source region for the northern stream wave is even colder then the one tomorrow so it would probably be associated with a deep, cold CAD once again 
Shaggy
Member
That is exactly what we want to see
Yeah but this looks like more reinforcing CAD this time than retreating. Surely don't need a wind up LP to get pulled in/up early which is more or less is what we call the old northwest trend.
If it's not being directed south by a huge western ridge or pushed/blocked south by a west-based -NAO, it won't be that far south. I haven't seen the H5 maps yet for the Euro, so idk.
griteater
Member
Think the key from a suppression standpoint is that at the beginning of the loop at day 2, we already have an eastern trough established. Then, we get the Aleutian low moving in from the west that gives us the ridge spikes along the British Columbia coast, sending our storm waves south into the southern Plains. Aleutian Low / +PNA is running the show, but without the eastern trough already established, the wave would cut too much. Not a far fetched scenario IMO, but heck, it's 6-7 days off. We need to keep going in the right direction between now and day 4 to have a chance.
It wouldn't take much for this potential to turn into the mess we are dealing with tomorrow. I want to see heights build in the western provinces...that's a staple for RDU's "big" winter snowfalls.
Voodoo and the PV being in Michigan
griteater
Member
Words from the friendly faces at WPC on the potential....
Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
111 PM EST Sat Jan 15 2022
Valid 12Z Tue Jan 18 2022 - 12Z Sat Jan 22 2022
...Guidance varies with potential focus, but
suspect the wavy trailing cold front on the leading edge of this
Arctic blast will gain at least modest moisture from the Gulf of
Mexico to fuel an emerging area of precipitation over the
Southeast that offers some later next week potential for
overrunning snow/ice on the northern periphery of activity. There
are some ensemble members which are more robust with
frontal/coastal wave amplitude and precipitation extent across the
region and over the East Coast at these longer time periods. The
main upper trough position is far enough West to not discount this
possibility.
Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
111 PM EST Sat Jan 15 2022
Valid 12Z Tue Jan 18 2022 - 12Z Sat Jan 22 2022
...Guidance varies with potential focus, but
suspect the wavy trailing cold front on the leading edge of this
Arctic blast will gain at least modest moisture from the Gulf of
Mexico to fuel an emerging area of precipitation over the
Southeast that offers some later next week potential for
overrunning snow/ice on the northern periphery of activity. There
are some ensemble members which are more robust with
frontal/coastal wave amplitude and precipitation extent across the
region and over the East Coast at these longer time periods. The
main upper trough position is far enough West to not discount this
possibility.
Hypsometric
Member
Was reviewing the H5 evolution and it seems the GFS is on an island by itself. It leaves a large portion of the shortwave parade diving down the backside of the east Pacific ridge, almost in Rex block fashion, trapped underneath it by hour 132.
Then you have the UKMET and the ICON, which both leave some of the energy behind further east in the 4 corners where it descends into Mexico.
Then you have the Euro/CMC and yes, the Korean, which bring all the energy out.
Then you have the UKMET and the ICON, which both leave some of the energy behind further east in the 4 corners where it descends into Mexico.
Then you have the Euro/CMC and yes, the Korean, which bring all the energy out.