Just a broad view of snowfall lighting up the frames here on the 18z GEFS Ens Mean
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm
- Thread starter packfan98
- Start date
The one thing that makes me feel better here is the wave originates from a cold vortex near AK and is initially embedded in the flow around the cold vortex in Canada. This should allow for us to keep a cleaner and taller western ridge and a natural eastward biasing. Now if the models can keep that ridge I'm not sure. Id rather play with the euro ridge vs cmc gfs
D
Deleted member 609
Guest
This is just an awesome look. I hope this is RC approved.
Already a better cold feed than the current system if we stay on track.
Shaggy
Member
Nothing is approved 6 days out
Cary_Snow95
Member
Anyone have weatherbell GEFS snow means and panels?
pcbjr
Member
just hang on to that +PNA ... please ...
February 2010 was modeled for over a week (9 or 10 days).
Flo
Member
That was the last time I remember a model being correct for CAE that far out
D
Deleted member 609
Guest
Anyone have the 18z eps?
O
Out to 132 on Wxbell, only goes out to 144 but should get us close, I'll post when finished
So far it looks like the PNA is stronger so that the energy wave is further to the SW allowing for a slower tilt. Not bad because that meant it was slightly more suppressed.
Control is flatter than its 12z run probably just a low amp wave. Thank God it didn't jump toward the gfs like it did with the current system
jay.p
Member
TWC
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
whatalife
Moderator
18z EPS look a little colder at the end then the 12z
Not bad at this lead time imho
Perfect look right now.Not bad at this lead time imho
D
Deleted member 609
Guest
Seeing 850s at 0 around Columbia is ??Not bad at this lead time imho
- Joined
- Jan 23, 2021
- Messages
- 3,769
- Reaction score
- 11,829
- Location
- Lebanon Township, Durham County NC
I don’t know how but it surely was. It was snowing in the teens across N NC and the lower 20s along US 74.
brendan123
Member
This is funny
Flo
Member
Was showing 3-5 for CAE for tmrw this time last week.
I have officially finished updating the archive thread. When looking at our rankings, this week has definitely put us well above 2020, and now are approaching the record from 2021 if we keep up with the good trends.
I think that if we can get this storm to Tuesday when the waves move onshore, we will hopefully be good. Now we just wait and hope for the best.
BHS1975
Member
Man that Euro looks sweet. Way too early to have a perfect track though.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
I plan to travel to near Jacksonville NC to visit family next weekend. Should be interesting to experience this event in the same region as many fellow Southern Wx comrades!
Downeastnc
Member
Local PIC gonna curse it.....ballsy this far out
Thursday Night
A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Friday
A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 37. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Thursday Night
A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Friday
A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 37. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Current surface and upper air forecasts from WPC for Fri AM. Inverted trough there thru GA
SnowNiner
Member
Current surface and upper air forecasts from WPC for Fri AM. Inverted trough there thru GA
Is this good? No, seriously I'm still learning. I'm not sure. Energy going tilt in that trough?
Avalanche
Member
Wouldnt that inverted trough cause moist easterly winds for our area?Current surface and upper air forecasts from WPC for Fri AM. Inverted trough there thru GA
Downeastnc
Member
Huge arctic triple heart high pushing SE, big low offshore SE coast....its beautiful.....and yes very good....
I'll let Grit or someone else more knowledgeable correct me if I'm wrong, but that inverted trough, a ripple in the trough, is a disturbance that could help develop our coastal along the arctic front. Tis good
Yeah, inverted trough is just an indication that the atmosphere west of the coastal front is responding to the upper wave that is dropping down from the NW....with some precip breaking out back inland. But the big takeaway is the 'off the coast' / suppressed look. Just their opinion at the moment
Yeah hard to draw up a more classic SE snowstorm surface map.
Would you guys say this next system has more protentional than this current system based on what information you have currently? I know its really far out but i guess if you compared both at 6 days out is what im asking
Absolutely .. all major global and ensemble members have latched onto something and they all have lots of cold air at play .. definitely agreement and especially at this distance away has to give some legitimacy to something happening then but specifics are far from final
D
Deleted member 609
Guest
Icon is a swing and a miss wide right
