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Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm

The Euro has ~0.75” of ZR here, which would be the heaviest since, believe it or not, the predecessor to the Knickerbocker storm, which paralyzed SAV with ZR 1/25-26/1922 (about the worst ZR here I could find on record)…almost exactly 100 years ago to the day! If this were to actually turn out to be an actual threat, I might have to get a generator.
 
I honestly really don’t like being in the bullseye of the EPS this far out. I’m managing my expectations even though right now this looks like the biggest threat for me this season so far. Hopefully it (somehow) trends southeast or at the very least doesn’t trend that far northwest.
 
I dont want to be that guy but this look has so much potential to turn into a Miller B setup, all it takes is the TPV in SE Canada/the NE to lift off faster, and higher heights to squeeze in between it, and the system to dig even further SW. this go around looks very cold tho and the source region for the northern stream wave is even colder then the one tomorrow so it would probably be associated with a deep, cold CAD once again D9C85947-55F2-4AFB-8480-1FD2AB846F79.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
I dont want to be that guy but this look has so much potential to turn into a Miller B setup, all it takes is the TPV in SE Canada/the NE to lift off faster, and higher heights to squeeze in between it, and the system to dig even further SW. this go around looks very cold tho and the source region for the northern stream wave is even colder then the one tomorrow so it would probably be associated with a deep, cold CAD once again View attachment 106081
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Yeah but this looks like more reinforcing CAD this time than retreating. Surely don't need a wind up LP to get pulled in/up early which is more or less is what we call the old northwest trend.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
TPV around the lakes/SE Canada
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If it's not being directed south by a huge western ridge or pushed/blocked south by a west-based -NAO, it won't be that far south. I haven't seen the H5 maps yet for the Euro, so idk.
 
Rain Cold said:
If it's not being directed south by a huge western ridge or pushed/blocked south by a west-based -NAO, it won't be that far south. I haven't seen the H5 maps yet for the Euro, so idk.
Click to expand...
Think the key from a suppression standpoint is that at the beginning of the loop at day 2, we already have an eastern trough established. Then, we get the Aleutian low moving in from the west that gives us the ridge spikes along the British Columbia coast, sending our storm waves south into the southern Plains. Aleutian Low / +PNA is running the show, but without the eastern trough already established, the wave would cut too much. Not a far fetched scenario IMO, but heck, it's 6-7 days off. We need to keep going in the right direction between now and day 4 to have a chance.

OcGXH13.gif
 
Rain Cold said:
If it's not being directed south by a huge western ridge or pushed/blocked south by a west-based -NAO, it won't be that far south. I haven't seen the H5 maps yet for the Euro, so idk.
Click to expand...

It wouldn't take much for this potential to turn into the mess we are dealing with tomorrow. I want to see heights build in the western provinces...that's a staple for RDU's "big" winter snowfalls.

Screen Shot 2022-01-15 at 3.42.38 PM.pngEPS.gif
 
Words from the friendly faces at WPC on the potential....


Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
111 PM EST Sat Jan 15 2022

Valid 12Z Tue Jan 18 2022 - 12Z Sat Jan 22 2022

...Guidance varies with potential focus, but
suspect the wavy trailing cold front on the leading edge of this
Arctic blast will gain at least modest moisture from the Gulf of
Mexico to fuel an emerging area of precipitation over the
Southeast that offers some later next week potential for
overrunning snow/ice on the northern periphery of activity. There
are some ensemble members which are more robust with
frontal/coastal wave amplitude and precipitation extent across the
region and over the East Coast at these longer time periods. The
main upper trough position is far enough West to not discount this
possibility.
 
Was reviewing the H5 evolution and it seems the GFS is on an island by itself. It leaves a large portion of the shortwave parade diving down the backside of the east Pacific ridge, almost in Rex block fashion, trapped underneath it by hour 132.

gfs132.png

Then you have the UKMET and the ICON, which both leave some of the energy behind further east in the 4 corners where it descends into Mexico.

uk132.png

icon132.png

Then you have the Euro/CMC and yes, the Korean, which bring all the energy out.

ecmwf132.png

korean132.png
 
Hypsometric said:
Was reviewing the H5 evolution and it seems the GFS is on an island by itself. It leaves a large portion of the shortwave parade diving down the backside of the east Pacific ridge, almost in Rex block fashion, trapped underneath it by hour 132.

View attachment 106118

Then you have the UKMET and the ICON, which both leave some of the energy behind further east in the 4 corners where it descends into Mexico.

View attachment 106116

View attachment 106117

Then you have the Euro/CMC and yes, the Korean, which bring all the energy out.

View attachment 106113

View attachment 106114
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Yeah, I think there's a lot that can go wrong, but the GFS is more than likely showing its progressive bias right now.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
I dont want to be that guy but this look has so much potential to turn into a Miller B setup, all it takes is the TPV in SE Canada/the NE to lift off faster, and higher heights to squeeze in between it, and the system to dig even further SW. this go around looks very cold tho and the source region for the northern stream wave is even colder then the one tomorrow so it would probably be associated with a deep, cold CAD once again 737B2B93-FC7B-4DB0-8F79-40E3960FC535.png
Click to expand...
that didn’t take long B2AC5159-21B2-4E92-BA8B-0B10B5F3F06F.png
 
Broken024 said:
GFS goes boom. Too clowe for comfort already.
View attachment 106171
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It's thing of beauty. However it's already too far west for all snow in the Midlands on the 18Z GFS. I already cocnerned that the track will shift even futher west and this at some becomes more of a western Deep South/Mid South Mid Atlantic storm when we get to the 3 day range. As MyFrotho said as well,this could also become more of miller A/B hybrid as we get closer. I love the trends,but I also hate the trends, knowing most storms trend west as we get closer to go time.
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
While the GFS did shift way west, it just aligned itself with all the other models. All the major globals are actually showing the exact same thing
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Yeah, the GFS was clearly out to lunch with how it was handling the energy.

However, I would have rather it not jumped on board in one full swoop.
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
While the GFS did shift way west, it just aligned itself with all the other models. All the major globals are actually showing the exact same thing
Click to expand...
It didn't really shift west. It's actually at the same position the Euro is, and east of the CMC. It just doesn't dig as much to pull the wave further south with the cold air.

It does however have the ridge build in quicker to the NE which allows it to go NE.
 
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