Broken024
Member
Eh. Rather this then showing a storm along thr coast already. If I get missed southeast, it is what it is. I'm tired of it missing me northwest.
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Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm
- Thread starter packfan98
- Start date
Hypsometric
Member
FWIW the 12z CMC was very similar to many of the 00z EPS members that I looked at that had hits.
In first with a : it looks like Jan 2000
The last time I can recall being in the "bullseye" zone for a snowstorm 7 days out and it worked out was in February 2010. The other times (and there have been numerous) I've been in the bullseye 7 days or so out; it hasn't worked out.
I love the pattern and the energy in the atmosphere, but I've been burnt too many times lately in this scenario. Color me (extremely) cautiously optimistic.
I love the pattern and the energy in the atmosphere, but I've been burnt too many times lately in this scenario. Color me (extremely) cautiously optimistic.
To me, the 12Z CMC looked more like Feb 1899, Feb 1914, or some of these really crazy runs we saw in last Februay before the Models went to crap for areas east of the Mountains.
Looks identical to the Jan 2014 overruning event with the CMC.
bingcrosbyb
Member
She’s a beaut Clark. 2M temps in mid 20s are fantastic.
That would be definitely some higher snow ratio. Like a 15:1.
Flo
Member
Yea I’m done with anything outside of 3 days. Been years and I mean years since we’ve seen snow modeled 7 days out
The difference between the GFS and CMC is that the CMC wants to dig the wave, while the GFS doesn't. After the last storms, you all know that models tend to underestimate the amplification and digging, but I'm not holding my tongue.
The CMC Ensembles don't look bad.
Hypsometric
Member
Just curious if that is all because the op CMC was still going strong at 180.
Downeastnc
Member
This setup is how we snow big in central and especially eastern NC for sure, gotta keep the pingers out of it or at least only deal with them for a few hrs.....back in Dec 2000 we had pingers at the height of the storm but I mean half dollar flakes and BB size pingers raining down with almost no vis was AWESOME lol.....I will take that anytime...this isnt fantasy range either inside of 7 days almost...just need that cold press to be legit.....the setup would give a good 3-5 days window for something to come along and give us a storm.
January for the ages setting up. Unreal
Which is so good, I’m more interested in this storm than the one occurring tonight and tomorrow it will be more snow and cold air to work with up there to bring down.
I have no idea how this is going to end up but would be shocked at an LP track like we are going to see tomorrow.
One analog stands above the others with that look and everyone will love it, 2/12/10.
griteater
Member
The GEM/CMC look was just spectacular. UKMet was going in that direction at the end of it's run at 168, though not as boldly. So, GFS is hitting on the first wave dropping down, the CMC and UKMet with a second wave
Hypsometric
Member
I think the ICON was also in the CMC/UKMET camp.