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Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm

Myfrotho704_ said:
Temps during this are brutal, cold air once again not looking like a issue View attachment 106032
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I don’t think I can remember a time where all of the southeast is in the midst of a snow storm with temps in the teens and low 20s across most of the area … the rates would be absolutely insanely efficient at making snow.. I wonder how much moisture we end up being able to work with after this run is done.
 
So, that was fun and really nice to look at. But other than model bias, what mechanism is realistically responsible for suppressing the flow and allowing such a deep penetration of arctic air? Is the western ridge anomalous high? Or do we have a strong -AO/-NAO?
 
The only thing I don't like is that the CMC and Euro are already amping things up and we still have 144+ hours to go. This would be downright amazing if this was only 36-48 hours out. However we know based on this weekends storm is that Models trend to amp things up and move the low pressure futher west as we get closer to go time. I would like to see more suppression from both the Euro and the CMC within the next 1-2 runs.
 
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Faco Thomas said:
The only thing I don't like is that the CMC and Euro are already amping things up and we still 144+ hours to go. This would downright amazaing if they was only 36-48 hours out. However we know based on this weekends storm is that Models trend to amp things up and move the low presssure futher west as we get closer to go time. I would to see more suppression from both the Euro and the CMC within the next 1-2 runs.
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Agree???
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
One thing that gets me with this one is that while we could still possibly trend the worst possible way with this, the energy/high is already dropping out of Canada/the pac at hour 78-96View attachment 106042View attachment 106043
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This setup really isn’t that complex. It’s overrunning precip over an Arctic front. Now the range of possibilities can be from the GFS/UKMET to the Euro depending on how much shortwave energy interacts with the natural baroclincity offered by the Arctic front.
 
I have always said for a good snow storm around here, mainly south of the I-20 and I-85 corridors we need an Arctic front to drive down to I-10, then let a wave ride along that front/boundary and boom...There you have what the doc said. Will be fun to see play out.
 
deltadog03 said:
I have always said for a good snow storm around here, mainly south of the I-20 and I-85 corridors we need an Arctic front to drive down to I-10, then let a wave ride along that front/boundary and boom...There you have what the doc said. Will be fun to see play out.
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Point of potential correction ... I-4 to be more hopeful ...
 
The 12z euro control run is also a monster.


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