Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm

[Ollie Williams]

Was reviewing the H5 evolution and it seems the GFS is on an island by itself. It leaves a large portion of the shortwave parade diving down the backside of the east Pacific ridge, almost in Rex block fashion, trapped underneath it by hour 132.

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Then you have the UKMET and the ICON, which both leave some of the energy behind further east in the 4 corners where it descends into Mexico.

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Then you have the Euro/CMC and yes, the Korean, which bring all the energy out.

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Yeah, I think there's a lot that can go wrong, but the GFS is more than likely showing its progressive bias right now.

 

[Hypsometric]

Yet all of them bring some sort of LP off the SE coast or near vicinity next weekend right?

Indeed. IMO there is remarkable consistency through D5-6 overall.

 

[Broken024]

Yeah, I think there's a lot that can go wrong, but the GFS is more than likely showing its progressive bias right now.

You have the individual eps ensembles?

 

[Ollie Williams]

You have the individual eps ensembles?

Yeah, but it's going to overlap with the current system. Here is the 6hr

 

[Hypsometric]

Well it didn’t take the GFS long to get off it’s island.

 

[Cary_Snow95]

Already 200 miles NW

 

[Broken024]

GFS goes boom. Too clowe for comfort already.

 

[Cary_Snow95]

This is a great run but this look sends a shiver down my spine

 

[Snowflowxxl]

The GFS is perfect now, which is terrible news.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

I dont want to be that guy but this look has so much potential to turn into a Miller B setup, all it takes is the TPV in SE Canada/the NE to lift off faster, and higher heights to squeeze in between it, and the system to dig even further SW. this go around looks very cold tho and the source region for the northern stream wave is even colder then the one tomorrow so it would probably be associated with a deep, cold CAD once again

that didn’t take long

 

[Broken024]

This is going to be a monster

 

[Cary_Snow95]

It’s stalling right off hatteras. Reminds me of the 2016 blizzard for the MA

 

[Faco Thomas]

GFS goes boom. Too clowe for comfort already.
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It's thing of beauty. However it's already too far west for all snow in the Midlands on the 18Z GFS. I already cocnerned that the track will shift even futher west and this at some becomes more of a western Deep South/Mid South Mid Atlantic storm when we get to the 3 day range. As MyFrotho said as well,this could also become more of miller A/B hybrid as we get closer. I love the trends,but I also hate the trends, knowing most storms trend west as we get closer to go time.

 

[Cary_Snow95]

While the GFS did shift way west, it just aligned itself with all the other models. All the major globals are actually showing the exact same thing

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

While the GFS did shift way west, it just aligned itself with all the other models. All the major globals are actually showing the exact same thing

Yeah, the GFS was clearly out to lunch with how it was handling the energy.

However, I would have rather it not jumped on board in one full swoop.

 

[Ollie Williams]

While the GFS did shift way west, it just aligned itself with all the other models. All the major globals are actually showing the exact same thing

It didn't really shift west. It's actually at the same position the Euro is, and east of the CMC. It just doesn't dig as much to pull the wave further south with the cold air.

It does however have the ridge build in quicker to the NE which allows it to go NE.

 

[Snow_chaser]

Glenn Burns agrees lol

 

[BullCityWx]

So if I average the 25” the euro gave me and the 23” the GFS gives me, that gives me 24”.

 

[Hypsometric]

GFS was way warmer than the Euro because it tracked the H85 low much further inland. This is the GFS at it's warmest frame compared to the Euro at it's warmest frame.

 

[Broken024]

24 hour snow totals are huge