North to coast with that L please.I expanded the dates of this thread . There is the late Thursday Friday late bloomer thread . Then Saturday into Sunday here is this bad boygfs and euro have it
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EPS Mean was more positive tilt with the wave this run...resulting in a more suppressed look
Have to wonder if this is one storm next weekend the models don't have a handle yet though
yet again, this setup looks to feature a very deep cold air damming setup with a 1039 HP to our north, in fact the mean high for areas north of I-20 is already in the 20s On Friday 
This really is the best part of this threat and that's by tonight it will be inside 120 already.
Geez… it’s like mother nature wants to make up for all these weak CADs we’ve seen the last few years, with super CADs
Normally I’d be nervous about a trend like that, but temps/HP placement and everything looked absolutely great, just H5 was more supportive a flatter system, definitely still like the 06z EPS
The mean is further south with the precip though so that's a good sign
It's slightly warmer at the 850s because the n/s wave is a little weaker, but it's rather trivial.
The 0c is like is but the runs are getting colder for us in midlands. Maybe this will be the real ice storm?
oops I meant the control but yes
To me this has the look of a January 2-3, 2002 type event. A decent overrunning event for the western Piedmont back into the foothills and mountains and then a good hit for areas east as the low bombed out at the coast
Very similar look on a longwave scale, especially with how the phase of the waves. However, we are going to need to thread the needle to keep this one suppressed with less troughing over SE Canada
I would be thrilled with a March 1980 again. I don’t remember it, but I see that it put down “only” 8” back my way while you guys out east had so much more…. Heck I’m thrilled today with true .5” of sleet I’ve had so far today since it’s the first time my yard has been white in nearly 3 years
There's almost always less troughing over Canada 24 hours out that it appeared at 168 hours out. That's about 85% accurate.
Perhaps the higher heights near Greenland will help. I know it’s not exactly west based but anything should help… didn’t the January 2002 storm have a slightly positive NAO?
No worries. Some of them are sideways though. Although that will get us in the proper mood, since most of our D7 storms end up sideways! ?
I agree… I really don’t mind seeing the operationals whiff on this for a couple days.
Suppressed and to the south wouldn't be a bad thing
That's a really good thing to see the ICON model suppressed. Plenty of room for a west trend without worrying about losing our system to the Mid Atlantic States or the Mid South.
