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Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm

Broken024 said:
Oh yea
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Also since the snow map doesn’t show it, the 12Z CMC has for the GA/SC coasts close to 1” liquid equivalent of a mix of ZR and IP (likely mainly ZR that transitions to mainly IP as the 850s drop) to maybe some snow near the end. That would be the worst here in 100 years almost to the exact day amazingly enough. The fact that various models/runs/ensemble members keep showing this sort of thing is a legit concern for me as a power outage from that would be very difficult to handle considering the cold during and after and having a bro to take care of. I wonder if I should consider buying a generator just in case before any potential later mad rush. I could always return it quickly it if I end up not needing it.

I’ll hope for either the common northwest trend that would make it liquid or a rare slightly southeast trend that would make it mainly sleet and snow.
 
GaWx said:
Also since the snow map doesn’t show it, the 12Z CMC has for the GA/SC coasts close to 1” liquid equivalent of a mix of ZR and IP (likely mainly ZR that transitions to mainly IP as the 850s drop) to maybe some snow near the end. That would be the worst here in 100 years almost to the exact day amazingly enough. The fact that various models/runs/ensemble members keep showing this sort of thing is a legit concern for me as a power outage from that would be very difficult to handle considering the cold during and after and having a bro to take care of. I wonder if I should consider buying a generator just in case before any potential later mad rush. I could always return it quickly it if I end up not needing it.

I’ll hope for either the common northwest trend that would make it liquid or a rare slightly southeast trend that would make it mainly sleet and snow.
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Larry,
In all sincerity, it's a week out and you as well as anyone know how models are at that range; it seems like a waste of time to go buy something now; give it 3 days and see how things are looking; you know NWS wouldn't alert the public until 60 hours out ... and that's when the mad dish to Home Depot will start ... giving you ample time ... just my 2¢ worth ... Phil
 
pcbjr said:
Larry,
In all sincerity, it's a week out and you as well as anyone know how models are at that range; it seems like a waste of time to go buy something now; give it 3 days and see how things are looking; you know NWS wouldn't alert the public until 60 hours out ... and that's when the mad dish to Home Depot will start ... giving you ample time ... just my 2¢ worth ... Phil
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Phil,
Thanks for your response. It actually is potentially as little as 5 days out per this and some other model runs, but I get your point about how inaccurate models often are. Maybe I’ll just call around today just to get an idea of what might be available and see if there’s a lot in stock.

By the way, 3 members (10%) of 12Z GEFS have wintry in your area and that’s just from the first wave!
 
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GaWx said:
Do later frames of the 12Z GEFS show some wintry members for the SE from the 2nd wave?
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I'm not going to try to pick through to see, but it did feel like to me while I was observing the GEFS that it either had the first system or the second system.

Sort of makes me feel that this will end up being a Sunday system if it happens.

ETA: 6 out of 20 had the second system.
 
GaWx said:
Also since the snow map doesn’t show it, the 12Z CMC has for the GA/SC coasts close to 1” liquid equivalent of a mix of ZR and IP (likely mainly ZR that transitions to mainly IP as the 850s drop) to maybe some snow near the end. That would be the worst here in 100 years almost to the exact day amazingly enough. The fact that various models/runs/ensemble members keep showing this sort of thing is a legit concern for me as a power outage from that would be very difficult to handle considering the cold during and after and having a bro to take care of. I wonder if I should consider buying a generator just in case before any potential later mad rush. I could always return it quickly it if I end up not needing it.

I’ll hope for either the common northwest trend that would make it liquid or a rare slightly southeast trend that would make it mainly sleet and snow.
Click to expand...
I would say it's good to have a generator, You would definitely use it during hurricanes...
 
So either way there’s a storm potential sometime this weekend. My Friday forecast shows snow/rain mix
 
Euro seems as if it's going to try to bury the energy in the SW?

Maybe I shouldn't have talked...perhaps that was the right solution.
 
I think swing and miss for Thur/FRI.....but more energy coming down the plains...lets see if it digs all of this out. 1040mb High up north so thats good.
 
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