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Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm
- Thread starter packfan98
- Start date
At least we have the WPC!
D
Deleted member 609
Guest
Didn't cmc and half the gefs have the first energy
Snowflowxxl
Member
I’m perfectly fine with where things are at now. Those runs yesterday would have ended up in the mid south come verification
Was just about to post this .. hot dogs I love the look of that .. Brad going to have to talk about this one soon lol he loves using these from the WPC
Good news, I guess, Euro is still awful cold. 850 line running down to Savannah for several days. Just have to hope the flow backs west just a bit or we capture some of the energy, which is still very much doable.
I think all is well for sure, I like the potential.
Downeastnc
Member
MHX has spoken
Thursday Night
A chance of rain before 1am, then a chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Friday
A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 35. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Friday Night
A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Thursday Night
A chance of rain before 1am, then a chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Friday
A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 35. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Friday Night
A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Psalm 148:8
Member
- Joined
- Dec 25, 2016
- Messages
- 300
- Reaction score
- 641
After what was modeled for the first storm and how it’s turning out, …. I’ll believe anything!
As worse as it is, I know most of us would rather have this thing strung out than over amplified and NW.
From best I can tell, the first wave is I think on average weaker and east of the 0Z EPS mean but it still looks good as it is further west than the 12Z operational with a good number of members likely showing wintry for the SE. Then it appears there are some members with a second wave within a few days later. I don’t have the actual members to post.
SnowNiner
Member
I'll take strung out right now. I'll admit the irony of missing a storm south/east great worries me especially since the GFS leans that way and holds the energy back (was first on amplification of this storm). But I'll hope it just continues to dig, especially with that WAR off the coast. Below looks just about right. By Tuesday I'd like to have most of the ensembles showing the footprint of a piedmont threat.
Still looks good for the Midlands/NE SC, Eastern/Central NC and SE VA. I would've be more worried if the ensembles weren't still showing a storm signal or if the all of the operational runs were still showing a big storm.
I'll take strung out right now. I'll admit the irony of missing a storm south/east great worries me especially since the GFS leans that way and holds the energy back (was first on amplification of this storm). But I'll hope it just continues to dig, especially with that WAR off the coast. Below looks just about right. By Tuesday I'd like to have most of the ensembles showing the footprint of a piedmont threat.
If it showed a bomb we would be worried…shows a whiff we are worried. ?
SnowNiner
Member
I don't know what to root for! I guess over amped, it's gone. Under amped, still a great chance for a hit. Especially with WPC honking already I think that's pretty solid. Hopefully they don't see the afternoon runs and say....nevermind out to sea. lol.
D
Deleted member 609
Guest
Where I am, I'm all in on under amped. You guys can do better with amped systems.
We root for a bomb 4 hrs out
D
Deleted member 609
Guest
-------- is honking. We still have a shot.
HurricaneSolomon
Member
- Joined
- Dec 6, 2021
- Messages
- 132
- Reaction score
- 237
Yes. If he’s already mentioning the possibility there is a side of legit with this.
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
SnowNiner
Member
We're walking such a fine line. We need a phase, so we need some dig here it looks like. The energy can't be left back for a good hit. So you hope for eventually amplification. But how much? Too much and RDU is out, but some 77 corridor may work. Too little 77 may be left out. Pins and needles.
?
WPC still likes it...
Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
158 PM EST Sun Jan 16 2022
Valid 12Z Wed Jan 19 2022 - 12Z Sun Jan 23 2022
A series of impulses will carve out and reinforce a broad mean trough over the central and eastern states during the extended period while the upper ridge amplifies offshore the West Coast. The leading shortwave will track over the Great Lakes region into the Northeast by Thursday with one behind it digging into the South Friday and then pulling offshore the Mid-Atlantic/Southeast region Saturday. This pattern will be conducive for precipitation to spread across the higher terrain of the Northern and Central Rockies through Friday and precipitation to span from Texas/western Gulf Coast, Deep South, Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic and push eastward beyond the weekend into next early next week.
Previously, it was noted that there is significant forecast spread and run to run uncertainty with this latter feature and associated mid-winter weather focus with frontal wave/coastal low genesis. The 06Z/12Z guidance continues to have notable spread on the placement/track of the secondary shortwave feature. In turn, the QPF placement varies significantly as well, especially across the Gulf states, Southeast and Southern Appalachia. To combat these differences, a general blend of the GFS/GEFS mean/CMC/ECWMF/EC ensemble means were used through all time periods. This provide a middle ground approach and helped maintain continuity from the previous forecast cycle.
...As the Arctic blast reaches the southern tier states a wavy cold front will encounter Gulf moisture to fuel an emerging area of precipitation up from the South/Southeast. This pattern will be favorable for an enhanced swath of overrunning snow/ice on the northern periphery of activity later in the week. This wave may develop into a robust coastal low/winter storm that tracks up the East Coast.
Campbell/Schichtel
Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
158 PM EST Sun Jan 16 2022
Valid 12Z Wed Jan 19 2022 - 12Z Sun Jan 23 2022
A series of impulses will carve out and reinforce a broad mean trough over the central and eastern states during the extended period while the upper ridge amplifies offshore the West Coast. The leading shortwave will track over the Great Lakes region into the Northeast by Thursday with one behind it digging into the South Friday and then pulling offshore the Mid-Atlantic/Southeast region Saturday. This pattern will be conducive for precipitation to spread across the higher terrain of the Northern and Central Rockies through Friday and precipitation to span from Texas/western Gulf Coast, Deep South, Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic and push eastward beyond the weekend into next early next week.
Previously, it was noted that there is significant forecast spread and run to run uncertainty with this latter feature and associated mid-winter weather focus with frontal wave/coastal low genesis. The 06Z/12Z guidance continues to have notable spread on the placement/track of the secondary shortwave feature. In turn, the QPF placement varies significantly as well, especially across the Gulf states, Southeast and Southern Appalachia. To combat these differences, a general blend of the GFS/GEFS mean/CMC/ECWMF/EC ensemble means were used through all time periods. This provide a middle ground approach and helped maintain continuity from the previous forecast cycle.
...As the Arctic blast reaches the southern tier states a wavy cold front will encounter Gulf moisture to fuel an emerging area of precipitation up from the South/Southeast. This pattern will be favorable for an enhanced swath of overrunning snow/ice on the northern periphery of activity later in the week. This wave may develop into a robust coastal low/winter storm that tracks up the East Coast.
Campbell/Schichtel
Yeah this pretty much sums it up. The intriguing aspect of this setup continues to be the sneaky arctic boundary draped off the coast and back SW into the Gulf with cold high pressure to the NW.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
The CAE NWS says yes, and was saying yes yesterday as well even though the discussion IIRC was kinda more like "it's too early to tell"
Thursday Night
A chance of rain showers before 3am, then a chance of rain and snow showers. Cloudy, with a low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Friday
A chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 40. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Friday Night
A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 23. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Thursday Night
A chance of rain showers before 3am, then a chance of rain and snow showers. Cloudy, with a low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Friday
A chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 40. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Friday Night
A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 23. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
WEATHERBOYROY
Member
A t least in central Bama this looks alot like what happened today...If this were a poker game I would shoot the dealer for dealing from the bottom of the deck.
PLEASE DON'T TORMENT US AGAIN WITH SNOW 360 DEGREES AROUND!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
PLEASE DON'T TORMENT US AGAIN WITH SNOW 360 DEGREES AROUND!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
??
Flotown
Member
That doesn't include today's does it??A t least in central Bama this looks alot like what happened today...If this were a poker game I would shoot the dealer for dealing from the bottom of the deck.
PLEASE DON'T TORMENT US AGAIN WITH SNOW 360 DEGREES AROUND!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
it’s nice to see this mean focus around my east for one and not 85 and north
pcbjr
Member
Not IMBY but a pretty rare and gutsy call by NWS KGNV/KJAX in their afternoon update this far out ... regarding very late this week ...
Friday through the weekend, A strong center of high pressure will
build in behind the front from the midwest filtering in another
chilly airmass that will deliver well below normal temperatures
to end the week with a potential for light freezing rain and snow
flurries over inland SE GA areas as suggested by the ECMWF which
keep precipitation over the area as temperatures fall below
freezing north of I-10 late Friday evening into Saturday morning
while GFS pulls all the precip off the coast before temperatures
fall below freezing Friday night.
Friday through the weekend, A strong center of high pressure will
build in behind the front from the midwest filtering in another
chilly airmass that will deliver well below normal temperatures
to end the week with a potential for light freezing rain and snow
flurries over inland SE GA areas as suggested by the ECMWF which
keep precipitation over the area as temperatures fall below
freezing north of I-10 late Friday evening into Saturday morning
while GFS pulls all the precip off the coast before temperatures
fall below freezing Friday night.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
I’m flying out of CLT tomorrow (hopefully) so I expect you’ll have this thing heading toward 85 & 40 by the time I get home next weekend!
those temps look even colder then today’s event
